Offshore
Photo
Librarian Capital
$HAYPP on their business in the US:
"We are still very small. We have 2.5% share ... of the overall market ... We need more online penetration of the market" (Gabriel De Prado, CCO, Nov-23 CMD)
Haypp 2023 US sales: ~$50m
Altria $MO Oral Tobacco sales: $2,555m
(* 25% = % of Haypp pouches sold in US)
tweet
$HAYPP on their business in the US:
"We are still very small. We have 2.5% share ... of the overall market ... We need more online penetration of the market" (Gabriel De Prado, CCO, Nov-23 CMD)
Haypp 2023 US sales: ~$50m
Altria $MO Oral Tobacco sales: $2,555m
(* 25% = % of Haypp pouches sold in US)
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Investing visuals
Wonderful visual about $PLTR by @carbonfinancex! Great account to follow If you're a fan of high quality visuals👌
tweet
Wonderful visual about $PLTR by @carbonfinancex! Great account to follow If you're a fan of high quality visuals👌
Palantir $PLTR is officially joining the S&P 500 $SPX, replacing American Airlines $AAL in the index.
The announcement came after hours on Friday, sending shares of the big data software company up 8%.
Palantir has had an impressive year, with its stock up roughly 100% YTD.
To qualify for the S&P 500, a company must meet several criteria such as:
•Being profitable in the most recent quarter
•Having cumulative profits over the last four quarters
•A minimum market cap of $14.5B.
Dell $DELL will also join the S&P 500, replacing Etsy $ETSY, while Erie Indemnity $ERIE will take the spot of Bio-Rad Laboratories $BIO.
These changes will be effective on September 23rd. tweet
AkhenOsiris
$GENI $DKNG
Seems DraftKings has signed on with Genius Sports' BetVision.
As per Sports Business Journal article last week, DraftKings was still in negotiations with Genius help.draftkings.com/hc/en-us…
Sports Business Journal article from Sept 2nd:
"Promising as the product may be, it has not been enough to spur what sources say have become contentious renewal negotiations between Genius and the three largest U.S. sportsbooks: FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. As of last Thursday, with the season opener a week away, only Caesars and BetRivers had finalized deals, though talks continued.
Caesars, which was the first to renew and had exclusive rights to introduce BetVision in its first year, declined a request to discuss the product’s evolution, as did FanDuel and Fanatics, the other two sportsbooks that offered it last year. Genius declined comment on renewal negotiations.
From all indications, the sticking point for the larger books has been the price of the overall data package, not the utility of the updated watch-and-bet product."
tweet
$GENI $DKNG
Seems DraftKings has signed on with Genius Sports' BetVision.
As per Sports Business Journal article last week, DraftKings was still in negotiations with Genius help.draftkings.com/hc/en-us…
Sports Business Journal article from Sept 2nd:
"Promising as the product may be, it has not been enough to spur what sources say have become contentious renewal negotiations between Genius and the three largest U.S. sportsbooks: FanDuel, DraftKings and BetMGM. As of last Thursday, with the season opener a week away, only Caesars and BetRivers had finalized deals, though talks continued.
Caesars, which was the first to renew and had exclusive rights to introduce BetVision in its first year, declined a request to discuss the product’s evolution, as did FanDuel and Fanatics, the other two sportsbooks that offered it last year. Genius declined comment on renewal negotiations.
From all indications, the sticking point for the larger books has been the price of the overall data package, not the utility of the updated watch-and-bet product."
tweet
AkhenOsiris
When in doubt, make up a new definition, we all do it...bravo Gene
tweet
When in doubt, make up a new definition, we all do it...bravo Gene
Greetings from Cupertino. Here’s what you need to know about todays $AAPL event:
The bottom line: Will FY25 be an iPhone “super cycle”? If the definition of super cycle is exceeding Street's estimates, I believe the answer is yes.
A closer look at today: Since there will be little changes to the iPhone hardware, all of the focus will be on any changes to the Apple Intelligence features and rollout roadmap outlined back at WWDC. I’m most focused on when to expect the more advanced features in Europe and China. Over the weekend, Bloomberg's Mark Gurman reported two smaller Apple Intelligence features, Image Playground app and the Genmoji, will be delayed by a month or two (now expected in December). While this is a setback, and could soften iPhone sales in December, it will have little impact on FY25.
The bigger picture - Consumers will want these AI features: Despite the unknowns of feature timing and global rollout, I believe consumers will get excited about these AI features and will lead to upside to the Street's FY25 and FY26 iPhone numbers. Factset consensus estimates call for iPhone in FY24 to be down 0.3%, shifting to growth in FY25 at up 5%, and FY26 up 6%. While the Dec-24 iPhone quarter will likely be up only a few percent (below the Street at 5.7% growth), the March quarter benefits from an easy comp and ramping Apple Intelligence features and global availability. In the end, I expect the iPhone will grow in the range of 8-10% this year with similar growth in FY26.
iPhone growth sensitivity: Keep in mind if just 10% of those that typically upgrade in FY26 move forward in FY25, iPhone growth in FY25 will be closer to 15%. I’m not suggesting that will happen, just pointing out that small changes to upgrade behavior has a meaningful impact to iPhone growth rates. This dynamic works in both directions as we have seen in iPhone growth over the past couple of years being down 1% on average.
Other announcements today don’t really matter: Today we should also see new health features for the Apple Watch, and new lower-end AirPods. Both product lines combine to account for about 10% of so the changes will only have a modest at best impact on numbers. - Gene Munstertweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Apple $AAPL US
Thesis: Apple’s growing ecosystem, powered by AI and a massive base of loyal users, positions the company for renewed growth and sustained value creation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/9bmhn80WfR
tweet
Baron Capital on Apple $AAPL US
Thesis: Apple’s growing ecosystem, powered by AI and a massive base of loyal users, positions the company for renewed growth and sustained value creation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/9bmhn80WfR
tweet
AkhenOsiris
@munster_gene says as long as Apple beats estimates, it is a super cycle.
Therefore other than a few qtrs, every iPhone release has been basically a super cycle 🤦🏽
I think @DivesTech is gonna run with this.
tweet
@munster_gene says as long as Apple beats estimates, it is a super cycle.
Therefore other than a few qtrs, every iPhone release has been basically a super cycle 🤦🏽
I think @DivesTech is gonna run with this.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Loar Holdings $LOAR US
Thesis: Loar’s strategic focus on high-margin aerospace parts and disciplined M&A approach positions it for sustained growth and profitability
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/pQk5kCIFWw
tweet
Baron Capital on Loar Holdings $LOAR US
Thesis: Loar’s strategic focus on high-margin aerospace parts and disciplined M&A approach positions it for sustained growth and profitability
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/pQk5kCIFWw
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$ORCL Oracle Q1 FY25 (ending in August).
• RPO +53% Y/Y to $99B.
CEO Safra Catz:
"That strong contract backlog will increase revenue growth throughout FY25. But the biggest news of all was signing a MultiCloud agreement with AWS."
• Revenue +7% Y/Y to $13.3B ($60M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.39 ($0.06 beat).
• Dividend $0.40/share (unchanged).
Cloud revenue +21% Y/Y to $5.6B:
• Application (SaaS) +10% Y/Y to $3.5B.
• Infrastructure (IaaS) +45% Y/Y to $2.2B.
tweet
$ORCL Oracle Q1 FY25 (ending in August).
• RPO +53% Y/Y to $99B.
CEO Safra Catz:
"That strong contract backlog will increase revenue growth throughout FY25. But the biggest news of all was signing a MultiCloud agreement with AWS."
• Revenue +7% Y/Y to $13.3B ($60M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.39 ($0.06 beat).
• Dividend $0.40/share (unchanged).
Cloud revenue +21% Y/Y to $5.6B:
• Application (SaaS) +10% Y/Y to $3.5B.
• Infrastructure (IaaS) +45% Y/Y to $2.2B.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
Rep. Suzan Delbene disclosed another sale of Microsoft stock today.
She has sold ~$33M in the last 3 years.
Her husband was a Microsoft exec, and appears to have received massive amounts of stock as compensation.
$MSFT has risen 1,300% since Delbene entered office in 2012 https://t.co/gMeVMyeYwn
tweet
Rep. Suzan Delbene disclosed another sale of Microsoft stock today.
She has sold ~$33M in the last 3 years.
Her husband was a Microsoft exec, and appears to have received massive amounts of stock as compensation.
$MSFT has risen 1,300% since Delbene entered office in 2012 https://t.co/gMeVMyeYwn
tweet
Offshore
Video
Aswath Damodaran (Youtube)
Dealing with Decline: Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks put to the test!
If you accept the notion that companies age and move through the life cycle, managing and investing becomes most challenging for companies in decline. Faced with that prospect, companies often go into denial, resort to desperation or become walking dead companies. Some accept aging gracefully, a few revamp themselves and even fewer find reincarnation. In this session, I look at three high profile companies that have fallen from market grace - Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks - and examine where they fall in the life cycle, and what choices make the best sense for them
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Decline2024.pdf
Blog post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/dealing-with-aging-daignosing-intel.html
Valuations:
1. Intel: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Intel2024.xlsx
2. Walgreens: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Walgreens2024.xlsx
3. Starbucks: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Starbucks2024.xlsx
Dealing with Decline: Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks put to the test!
If you accept the notion that companies age and move through the life cycle, managing and investing becomes most challenging for companies in decline. Faced with that prospect, companies often go into denial, resort to desperation or become walking dead companies. Some accept aging gracefully, a few revamp themselves and even fewer find reincarnation. In this session, I look at three high profile companies that have fallen from market grace - Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks - and examine where they fall in the life cycle, and what choices make the best sense for them
Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/Decline2024.pdf
Blog post: https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/dealing-with-aging-daignosing-intel.html
Valuations:
1. Intel: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Intel2024.xlsx
2. Walgreens: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Walgreens2024.xlsx
3. Starbucks: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/blog/Starbucks2024.xlsx
Offshore
Photo
Musings on Markets
Dealing with aging: The Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stores Updated!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that investors have to change the way they value and price companies, to reflect where they are in the life cycle, and how different investment philosophies lead you to concentrated picks in different phases of the life cycle. In the closing section, I contended that managing and investing in companies becomes most difficult when companies enter the last phases of their life cycles, with revenues stagnating or even declining and margins under pressure. While consultants, bankers and even some investors push companies to reinvent themselves, and find growth again, the truth is that for most companies, the best pathway, when facing aging, is to accept decline, shrink and even shut down. In this post, I will look at three high profile companies, Intel, Starbucks and Walgreens, that have seen market turmoil and management change, and examine what the options are for the future.
Setting the stage
The three companies that I picked for this post on decline present very different portraits. Intel was a tech superstar not that long ago, a company founded by Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce and Arthur Rock in 1968, whose computer chips have helped create the tech revolution. Walgreens is an American institution, founded in Chicago in 1901, and after its merger with Alliance Boots in 2014, one of the largest pharmacy chains in the country. Finally, Starbucks, which was born in 1971 as a coffee bean wholesaler in Pike Place Market in Seattle, was converted into a coffee shop chain by Howard Schultz, and to the dismay of Italians, has redefined espresso drinks around the world. While they are in very different businesses, what they share in common is that over the recent year or two, they have all not only lost favor in financial markets, but have also seen their business models come under threat, with their operating metrics (revenue growth, margins) reflecting that threat.
The Market turns
With hundreds of stocks listed and traded in the market, why am I paying attention to these three? First, the companies are familiar names. Our personal computes are often Intel-chip powered, there is a Walgreen's a few blocks from my home, and all of us have a Starbucks around the corner from where we live and work. Second, they have all been in the news in the last few weeks, with Starbucks getting a new CEO, Walgreens announcing that they will be shutting down hundreds of their stores and Intel coming up in the Nvidia conversation, often as a contrast. Third, they have all seen the market turn against them, though Starbucks has had a comeback after its new CEO hire.
<picturehttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb74df6c8-0e8d-4951-ade7-3a119770a031_758x749.heic
<svg<polyline<polyline<line<line
None of the three stocks has been a winner over the last five years, but the decline in Intel and Walgreen's has been precipitous, especially int he last three years. That decline has drawn the usual suspects. On the one hand are the knee-jerk contrarians, to whom a drop of[...]
Dealing with aging: The Intel, Walgreens and Starbucks Stores Updated!
A few weeks ago, I posted on the corporate life cycle, the subject of my latest book. I argued that the corporate life cycle can explain what happens to companies as they age, and why they have to adapt to aging with their actions and choices. In parallel, I also noted that investors have to change the way they value and price companies, to reflect where they are in the life cycle, and how different investment philosophies lead you to concentrated picks in different phases of the life cycle. In the closing section, I contended that managing and investing in companies becomes most difficult when companies enter the last phases of their life cycles, with revenues stagnating or even declining and margins under pressure. While consultants, bankers and even some investors push companies to reinvent themselves, and find growth again, the truth is that for most companies, the best pathway, when facing aging, is to accept decline, shrink and even shut down. In this post, I will look at three high profile companies, Intel, Starbucks and Walgreens, that have seen market turmoil and management change, and examine what the options are for the future.
Setting the stage
The three companies that I picked for this post on decline present very different portraits. Intel was a tech superstar not that long ago, a company founded by Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce and Arthur Rock in 1968, whose computer chips have helped create the tech revolution. Walgreens is an American institution, founded in Chicago in 1901, and after its merger with Alliance Boots in 2014, one of the largest pharmacy chains in the country. Finally, Starbucks, which was born in 1971 as a coffee bean wholesaler in Pike Place Market in Seattle, was converted into a coffee shop chain by Howard Schultz, and to the dismay of Italians, has redefined espresso drinks around the world. While they are in very different businesses, what they share in common is that over the recent year or two, they have all not only lost favor in financial markets, but have also seen their business models come under threat, with their operating metrics (revenue growth, margins) reflecting that threat.
The Market turns
With hundreds of stocks listed and traded in the market, why am I paying attention to these three? First, the companies are familiar names. Our personal computes are often Intel-chip powered, there is a Walgreen's a few blocks from my home, and all of us have a Starbucks around the corner from where we live and work. Second, they have all been in the news in the last few weeks, with Starbucks getting a new CEO, Walgreens announcing that they will be shutting down hundreds of their stores and Intel coming up in the Nvidia conversation, often as a contrast. Third, they have all seen the market turn against them, though Starbucks has had a comeback after its new CEO hire.
<picturehttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb74df6c8-0e8d-4951-ade7-3a119770a031_758x749.heic
<svg<polyline<polyline<line<line
None of the three stocks has been a winner over the last five years, but the decline in Intel and Walgreen's has been precipitous, especially int he last three years. That decline has drawn the usual suspects. On the one hand are the knee-jerk contrarians, to whom a drop of[...]