⁠Quality Stocks
🇺🇸 Broadcom $AVGO Q3 24 results

Revenue $13,072M
Q3 23 results $8,876M +47.3% 🟢
Est. $12,964M beat 🟢

EPS $(0.40)
Q3 23 $0.77 -152% 🔴
Est. $0.56 miss 🔴

The net loss is due to a tax provision of $4.5B (due to reorganisation) https://t.co/J6ZCZeu4Ui
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⁠Lumida Wealth Management
1/ Daily News Round-Up:

- UK regulator CMA probes Google's ad practices for possible competition law breaches.
- JPMorgan sees no major crypto catalysts for price surges soon.
- US adds 250K jobs in Sept, far exceeding expectations.
- BofA warns semiconductor stocks at risk if payroll data disappoints.
- Morgan Stanley braces for market swings ahead of payroll report.
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⁠Bourbon Capital
No earnings for today, its just gonna be you and me https://t.co/EEV3T0awvM
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⁠Bourbon Capital
$OPEN is up 4% pre-market

It looks like someone is anticipating lower rates https://t.co/qrHGgNfLNB
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⁠Quality Stocks
4⃣ next company deep dive to be published
You can find all these articles on the link in my bio

🇫🇷 Tomorrow, Schneider $SU
🚚 Sept 14, Supply Chain Software
🇸🇪 Sept 21, Bonesupport $BONEX
🇺🇸 Sept 28, Salesforce $CRM

Any idea for the next after that?
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $CPRT 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 31.44x
•10-Year Mean: 27.81x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.49%
•10-Year Mean: 2.96%

As you can see, $CPRT appears to be trading slightly above fair value

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in earnings per share & ~16% LESS in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $CPRT is a super business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $3.42B
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$CPRT has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2020: 26.5%
•2021: 27.6%
•2022: 28.5%
•2023: 24.0%
•2024: 20.3%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2020: 32.8%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 26.7%
•2023: 23.3%
•2024: 20.1%

$CPRT return metrics are excellent, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2014: $1.16B
•2024: $4.23B
•CAGR: 13.79%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2014: $166.78M
•2024: $961.57M
•CAGR: 19.14%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2014: $0.20
•2024: $1.40
•CAGR: 21.48%

SHARE BUYBACKS🆗
•2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 959.06M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~4.1%, $CPRT increased its EPS by ~4.2% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 49.0%
•LTM Operating Margins: 37.1%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.2%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in EPS & ~16% LESS FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $CPRT has to grow earnings at a 15.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (15.72%) required growth rate:

2025E: $1.58 (11.2% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $1.75 (10.4% YoY)
2027E: $1.95 (11.6% YoY)

$CPRT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $CPRT ends FY 2027 with $1.95 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $62.40💵 … ~8.3% CAGR

30x P/E: $58.50💵 … ~5.9% CAGR

28x P/E: $54.60💵 … ~3.4% CAGR

26x P/E: $50.70💵 … ~0.8% CAGR

As you can see, we’d have to assume >32x earnings for $CPRT to have double digit CAGR potential

Although $CPRT is a super business, I am not willing to rely on >32x as this leaves us with no margin of safety

Today at $49.50💵 $CPRT appears to be a hold & worth keeping an eye on

I’d be more interested in $CPRT closer to $44.00💵 or at ~28x NTM earnings where I can reasonably expect ~10.26% CAGR assuming a 30x multiple

However, at that price I’d likely initiate 50% of the position & build a full position if $CPRT reaches $40.00💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Matt McGarry
8 spots left for early bird pricing!!

Join Write, Grow, Sell before the price goes up by $200:

https://t.co/162j3O6tdk
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⁠Bourbon Capital
I love how many people have been calling the new $GME squeeze for years, and those who follow them have lost a lot of money.

People who bought $AMC have lost 99% of their money.
People who bought $BB have lost 95% of their money.
People who bought $CLOV have lost 90% of their money.
People who bought $BBBY have lost 100% of their money.
People who bought $BIG have lost 95% of their money.
People who bought $MBLY have lost 65% of their money.

Just remember, 1% of them make money, and 99% of them lose money. It is probably worse than crypto.
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⁠Stock Analysis Compilation
Baron Capital on Martin Marietta Materials $MLM US

Thesis: Martin Marietta’s dominant position in aggregates, coupled with strong pricing power and accelerating infrastructure spending, positions it for sustained growth

(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/lJMP9nZFUL
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⁠Bourbon Capital
Today Ex-date for some good companies

$BAC $PEP $CNI $BKNG

Dividend ex-dates for this week, for those who love dividend-paying stocks.

Which of these companies do you like for their dividends?
$MCD $NKE $BAC $PEP $O https://t.co/YO4SABvbxM - Bourbon Capital
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⁠Bourbon Capital
$GOOG -1.56%🔴
$ASML -2.56%🔴

I don't think we will see $GOOG close to $130, but $140 seems very possible.

$ASML is heading down; $750 could happen soon.
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