Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
Peter Lynch on the temporary disconnect between fundamentals and share prices: https://t.co/Xoyk7bwO0l
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Peter Lynch on the temporary disconnect between fundamentals and share prices: https://t.co/Xoyk7bwO0l
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Offshore
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โ Librarian Capital
More classic Bill Ackman tweets
I guess you don't need the government to combat misinformation if you can just complain directly to media company board directors and their private equity owners https://t.co/mvmZgMiVGi
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More classic Bill Ackman tweets
I guess you don't need the government to combat misinformation if you can just complain directly to media company board directors and their private equity owners https://t.co/mvmZgMiVGi
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Offshore
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โ Librarian Capital
Guardian article on Sharon White tenure at John Lewis (Oct-23)
"One former staffer said White was failing to listen enough, and was ill-equipped for the job despite boundless self-belief"
"One former adviser said missteps emerged as White built a team who were โall theory peopleโ, and made changes without listening enough"
"Another source and several former staffers agreed: โHer people judgment has been really poor.โ"
"The source said White was used to the โgenteel decorum of civil service lifeโ"
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Guardian article on Sharon White tenure at John Lewis (Oct-23)
"One former staffer said White was failing to listen enough, and was ill-equipped for the job despite boundless self-belief"
"One former adviser said missteps emerged as White built a team who were โall theory peopleโ, and made changes without listening enough"
"Another source and several former staffers agreed: โHer people judgment has been really poor.โ"
"The source said White was used to the โgenteel decorum of civil service lifeโ"
Was John Lewis boss Sharon White too clever for the cruel retail world? https://t.co/KoMOxsJPOv tweet
Offshore
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โ Quality Stocks
๐ต๐ฑ InPost $INPST Q2 24 results
Excellent results above expectations
Revenue 2,616M PLN
Q2 23 2,134M PLN +22.6% ๐ข
Est. 2,569M PLN beat ๐ข
EPS 0.67 PLN
Q2 23 0.26 PLN +157% ๐ข
Est. 0.59 PLN beat ๐ข
Parcel volume +23% YoY
EBITDA +29% YoY
Out-of-home points +23% YoY
Debt leverage 1.95x EBTIDA (vs 2.70x prior year)
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๐ต๐ฑ InPost $INPST Q2 24 results
Excellent results above expectations
Revenue 2,616M PLN
Q2 23 2,134M PLN +22.6% ๐ข
Est. 2,569M PLN beat ๐ข
EPS 0.67 PLN
Q2 23 0.26 PLN +157% ๐ข
Est. 0.59 PLN beat ๐ข
Parcel volume +23% YoY
EBITDA +29% YoY
Out-of-home points +23% YoY
Debt leverage 1.95x EBTIDA (vs 2.70x prior year)
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Offshore
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โ Quality Stocks
๐บ๐ธ Broadcom $AVGO Q3 24 results
Revenue $13,072M
Q3 23 results $8,876M +47.3% ๐ข
Est. $12,964M beat ๐ข
EPS $(0.40)
Q3 23 $0.77 -152% ๐ด
Est. $0.56 miss ๐ด
The net loss is due to a tax provision of $4.5B (due to reorganisation) https://t.co/J6ZCZeu4Ui
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๐บ๐ธ Broadcom $AVGO Q3 24 results
Revenue $13,072M
Q3 23 results $8,876M +47.3% ๐ข
Est. $12,964M beat ๐ข
EPS $(0.40)
Q3 23 $0.77 -152% ๐ด
Est. $0.56 miss ๐ด
The net loss is due to a tax provision of $4.5B (due to reorganisation) https://t.co/J6ZCZeu4Ui
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โ Lumida Wealth Management
1/ Daily News Round-Up:
- UK regulator CMA probes Google's ad practices for possible competition law breaches.
- JPMorgan sees no major crypto catalysts for price surges soon.
- US adds 250K jobs in Sept, far exceeding expectations.
- BofA warns semiconductor stocks at risk if payroll data disappoints.
- Morgan Stanley braces for market swings ahead of payroll report.
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1/ Daily News Round-Up:
- UK regulator CMA probes Google's ad practices for possible competition law breaches.
- JPMorgan sees no major crypto catalysts for price surges soon.
- US adds 250K jobs in Sept, far exceeding expectations.
- BofA warns semiconductor stocks at risk if payroll data disappoints.
- Morgan Stanley braces for market swings ahead of payroll report.
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Offshore
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โ Bourbon Capital
$OPEN is up 4% pre-market
It looks like someone is anticipating lower rates https://t.co/qrHGgNfLNB
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$OPEN is up 4% pre-market
It looks like someone is anticipating lower rates https://t.co/qrHGgNfLNB
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $CPRT ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 31.44x
โข10-Year Mean: 27.81x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.49%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.96%
As you can see, $CPRT appears to be trading slightly above fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in earnings per share & ~16% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $CPRT is a super business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $3.42B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0
$CPRT has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 26.5%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 28.5%
โข2023: 24.0%
โข2024: 20.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 32.8%
โข2021: 31.1%
โข2022: 26.7%
โข2023: 23.3%
โข2024: 20.1%
$CPRT return metrics are excellent, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $1.16B
โข2024: $4.23B
โขCAGR: 13.79%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $166.78M
โข2024: $961.57M
โขCAGR: 19.14%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $0.20
โข2024: $1.40
โขCAGR: 21.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 959.06M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~4.1%, $CPRT increased its EPS by ~4.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 37.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 32.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in EPS & ~16% LESS FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $CPRT has to grow earnings at a 15.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (15.72%) required growth rate:
2025E: $1.58 (11.2% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $1.75 (10.4% YoY)
2027E: $1.95 (11.6% YoY)
$CPRT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $CPRT ends FY 2027 with $1.95 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $62.40๐ต โฆ ~8.3% CAGR
30x P/E: $58.50๐ต โฆ ~5.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $54.60๐ต โฆ ~3.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $50.70๐ต โฆ ~0.8% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume >32x earnings for $CPRT to have double digit CAGR potential
Although $CPRT is a super business, I am not willing to rely on >32x as this leaves us with no margin of safety
Today at $49.50๐ต $CPRT appears to be a hold & worth keeping an eye on
Iโd be more interested in $CPRT closer to $44.00๐ต or at ~28x NTM earnings where I can reasonably expect ~10.26% CAGR assuming a 30x multiple
However, at that price Iโd likely initiate 50% of the position & build a full position if $CPRT reaches $40.00๐ต
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $CPRT ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 31.44x
โข10-Year Mean: 27.81x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.49%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.96%
As you can see, $CPRT appears to be trading slightly above fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in earnings per share & ~16% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $CPRT is a super business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $3.42B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0
$CPRT has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 26.5%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 28.5%
โข2023: 24.0%
โข2024: 20.3%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 32.8%
โข2021: 31.1%
โข2022: 26.7%
โข2023: 23.3%
โข2024: 20.1%
$CPRT return metrics are excellent, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $1.16B
โข2024: $4.23B
โขCAGR: 13.79%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $166.78M
โข2024: $961.57M
โขCAGR: 19.14%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $0.20
โข2024: $1.40
โขCAGR: 21.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS๐
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 1.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 959.06M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~4.1%, $CPRT increased its EPS by ~4.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 37.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 32.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% LESS in EPS & ~16% LESS FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $CPRT has to grow earnings at a 15.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (15.72%) required growth rate:
2025E: $1.58 (11.2% YoY) *FY Jul
2026E: $1.75 (10.4% YoY)
2027E: $1.95 (11.6% YoY)
$CPRT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $CPRT ends FY 2027 with $1.95 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $62.40๐ต โฆ ~8.3% CAGR
30x P/E: $58.50๐ต โฆ ~5.9% CAGR
28x P/E: $54.60๐ต โฆ ~3.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $50.70๐ต โฆ ~0.8% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume >32x earnings for $CPRT to have double digit CAGR potential
Although $CPRT is a super business, I am not willing to rely on >32x as this leaves us with no margin of safety
Today at $49.50๐ต $CPRT appears to be a hold & worth keeping an eye on
Iโd be more interested in $CPRT closer to $44.00๐ต or at ~28x NTM earnings where I can reasonably expect ~10.26% CAGR assuming a 30x multiple
However, at that price Iโd likely initiate 50% of the position & build a full position if $CPRT reaches $40.00๐ต
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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