Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: The latest memo by @HowardMarksBook on market action earlier this month in the broader context of emotions vs fundamentals ๐งต๐
โ "People often asked me to explain the sudden collapse [of stocks in early August]. I referred them to my 2016 memo On the Couch. Its key observation was that in the real world, things fluctuate between โpretty goodโ and โnot so hot,โ but in investing, perception often swings from โflawlessโ to โhopeless.โ That says about 80% of what you need to know on the subject."
1/7
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RT @HiddenValueGems: The latest memo by @HowardMarksBook on market action earlier this month in the broader context of emotions vs fundamentals ๐งต๐
โ "People often asked me to explain the sudden collapse [of stocks in early August]. I referred them to my 2016 memo On the Couch. Its key observation was that in the real world, things fluctuate between โpretty goodโ and โnot so hot,โ but in investing, perception often swings from โflawlessโ to โhopeless.โ That says about 80% of what you need to know on the subject."
1/7
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Offshore
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โ Capital Employed
RT @capitalemployed: FRESH OFF THE PRESS ๐ฅ
Interview #98 with Roderick van Zuylen @roojoo3 from Night Watch Investment Management.
Roderick discusses the launch of the fund, types of businesses they like to invest in, two stocks they're bullish on, plus much more ๐
https://t.co/0yV9PilG8r https://t.co/XOs96U5tu8
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RT @capitalemployed: FRESH OFF THE PRESS ๐ฅ
Interview #98 with Roderick van Zuylen @roojoo3 from Night Watch Investment Management.
Roderick discusses the launch of the fund, types of businesses they like to invest in, two stocks they're bullish on, plus much more ๐
https://t.co/0yV9PilG8r https://t.co/XOs96U5tu8
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Offshore
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โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Pershing Square on Universal Music Group $UMG NA
Thesis: UMG's leadership in the music industry and potential for improved monetization through strategic partnerships and pricing power make it a compelling investment despite short-term headwinds
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/iohAGQJwca
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Pershing Square on Universal Music Group $UMG NA
Thesis: UMG's leadership in the music industry and potential for improved monetization through strategic partnerships and pricing power make it a compelling investment despite short-term headwinds
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/iohAGQJwca
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Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
15 Visual Investing Lessons:
1. Buy stocks when consumer sentiment is low: https://t.co/v4rMfyItXS
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15 Visual Investing Lessons:
1. Buy stocks when consumer sentiment is low: https://t.co/v4rMfyItXS
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Offshore
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โ Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: In tech, you do not quite know where your next competitor will come from ๐๐ฝ
"Starting with a system built for internal use in 2021, Lidl owner Schwarz Group now offers cloud computing and cyber security services to corporate customers." https://t.co/OAfAQtmWyx
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RT @HiddenValueGems: In tech, you do not quite know where your next competitor will come from ๐๐ฝ
"Starting with a system built for internal use in 2021, Lidl owner Schwarz Group now offers cloud computing and cyber security services to corporate customers." https://t.co/OAfAQtmWyx
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Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
Amazon's 10-year revenue CAGR from its business segments: https://t.co/BENOooT2oC
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Amazon's 10-year revenue CAGR from its business segments: https://t.co/BENOooT2oC
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Offshore
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โ iinvested
2Q'24 Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC new buys $ULS, $MSA, $SPXC, $AGYS, $ERII, $UTI
Read the full quarterly letter here:
https://t.co/WRGkdL2eBG https://t.co/zbzTN8A0g1
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2Q'24 Conestoga Capital Advisors, LLC new buys $ULS, $MSA, $SPXC, $AGYS, $ERII, $UTI
Read the full quarterly letter here:
https://t.co/WRGkdL2eBG https://t.co/zbzTN8A0g1
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 20.89x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.59x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.14%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.17%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & roughly the same in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
โขLong-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $55.52B
โข2023: $307.39
โขCAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $11.30B
โข2023: $69.50B
โขCAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.19
โข2023: $5.80
โขCAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & roughly the same in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.45% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.45%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.62 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.68 (13.9% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $239.28๐ต โฆ ~16.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $229.31๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >22x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 23x - 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & itโs not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $168.00๐ต $GOOG appears to be an attractive consideration for investment
$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150๐ต or ~10% below todayโs price
At $150๐ต, investors can reasonably expect ~13.4% CAGR even assuming 20x earnings
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $GOOG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 20.89x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.59x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.14%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.17%
As you can see, $GOOG appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & roughly the same in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $GOOG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $100.73B
โขLong-Term Debt: $11.88B
$GOOG has a strong balance sheet, an AA+ S&P Credit Rating & 303x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.4%
โข2020: 16.2%
โข2021: 27.6%
โข2022: 26.1%
โข2023: 28.1%
โขLTM: 30.9%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 18.1%
โข2020: 19.0%
โข2021: 32.1%
โข2022: 23.6%
โข2023: 27.4%
โขLTM: 30.9%
$GOOG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $55.52B
โข2023: $307.39
โขCAGR: 18.66%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $11.30B
โข2023: $69.50B
โขCAGR: 19.91%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.19
โข2023: $5.80
โขCAGR: 10.22%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 14.07B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 12.58B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $GOOG increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 57.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 31.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 26.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & roughly the same in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $GOOG has to grow earnings at a 10.45% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (10.45%) required growth rate:
2024E: $7.62 (31.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $8.68 (13.9% YoY)
2026E: $9.97 (14.8% YoY)
$GOOG has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $GOOG ends 2026 with $9.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $239.28๐ต โฆ ~16.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $229.31๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
22x P/E: $219.34๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
As you can see, $GOOG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >22x earnings (a multiple below its 5-year & 10-year mean)
At 23x - 24x earnings, $GOOG CAGR potential is excellent & itโs not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~24x (given current growth rate estimates, its moat, balance sheet, & exemplary capital allocation)
Today at $168.00๐ต $GOOG appears to be an attractive consideration for investment
$GOOG presents excellent value & a wide margin of safety closer to $150๐ต or ~10% below todayโs price
At $150๐ต, investors can reasonably expect ~13.4% CAGR even assuming 20x earnings
#stocks #investing $GOOGL
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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