Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Enjoyed the interview with @JohnArnoldFndtn who achieved ~100% compound annual
return over 12 years and retired at 38 as a billionaire.
✅ “The market is usually right, but success in investing often comes from the confidence to believe when it’s wrong.”
✅ "Investing requires the balance of confidence to challenge the market and the humility to accept when you’re wrong."
✅ "In investing, the rarest skill is not just finding opportunities but knowing when you’ve made a mistake."
✅ "Success in investing isn’t about always being right; it’s about knowing when you need to rethink your strategy."
✅ “There's this phrase that fear and greed determine markets, and those are two very strong emotions. I've seen traders who either because of fear or greed, they change their pattern, they change their process. And so, for better or worse, I think I'm classified by being able to be detached from my emotions.”
✅ “The amount of infrastructure that's required to run the data centers for AI is immense. The industry is under a real challenge. It's putting tremendous challenge upon the utility industry.”
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Enjoyed the interview with @JohnArnoldFndtn who achieved ~100% compound annual
return over 12 years and retired at 38 as a billionaire.
✅ “The market is usually right, but success in investing often comes from the confidence to believe when it’s wrong.”
✅ "Investing requires the balance of confidence to challenge the market and the humility to accept when you’re wrong."
✅ "In investing, the rarest skill is not just finding opportunities but knowing when you’ve made a mistake."
✅ "Success in investing isn’t about always being right; it’s about knowing when you need to rethink your strategy."
✅ “There's this phrase that fear and greed determine markets, and those are two very strong emotions. I've seen traders who either because of fear or greed, they change their pattern, they change their process. And so, for better or worse, I think I'm classified by being able to be detached from my emotions.”
✅ “The amount of infrastructure that's required to run the data centers for AI is immense. The industry is under a real challenge. It's putting tremendous challenge upon the utility industry.”
tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Matrix Asset Advisors on Medtronic $MDT US
Thesis: Medtronic, the global leader in biomedical devices, is poised for a rebound with compelling valuation and strong growth prospects post-COVID
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/a8Eb61HXKF
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Matrix Asset Advisors on Medtronic $MDT US
Thesis: Medtronic, the global leader in biomedical devices, is poised for a rebound with compelling valuation and strong growth prospects post-COVID
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/a8Eb61HXKF
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Offshore
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Invest In Assets 📈
Gains needed to make up for losses in the stock market: https://t.co/vhTn5LQ39N
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Gains needed to make up for losses in the stock market: https://t.co/vhTn5LQ39N
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Royce IP on Azelis Group $AZE BB
Thesis: Azelis Group is a strong consolidator in the specialty chemicals market with solid fundamentals, poised to benefit from industry consolidation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/HMJdHFp970
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Royce IP on Azelis Group $AZE BB
Thesis: Azelis Group is a strong consolidator in the specialty chemicals market with solid fundamentals, poised to benefit from industry consolidation
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/HMJdHFp970
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Last month, after reporting strong quarterly results, $META traded down to an attractive level of valuation.
Since then, $META shares increased +12.70% 🟢
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR potential assuming 2026E and a 22x multiple (an added layer of margin of safety)”
___
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.17x
•10-Year Mean: 26.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 3.30%
As you can see, $META appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $58.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.39B
$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 147x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 33.4%
$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.64B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~9.5%, $META increased its EPS by ~10.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 39.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.60% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.60%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.14 (35.4% YoY)
2025E: $23.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $26.32 (14.2% YoY)
$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $26.32 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $631.68💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $605.36💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $579.04💵 … ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR po[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: Last month, after reporting strong quarterly results, $META traded down to an attractive level of valuation.
Since then, $META shares increased +12.70% 🟢
As I stated in my analysis:
“As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR potential assuming 2026E and a 22x multiple (an added layer of margin of safety)”
___
#stocks #investing"
A sober valuation analysis on $META 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.17x
•10-Year Mean: 26.61x
•NTM FCF Yield: 3.77%
•10-Year Mean: 3.30%
As you can see, $META appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $META is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $58.12B
•Long-Term Debt: $18.39B
$META has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 147x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 26.0%
•2020: 23.5%
•2021: 33.7%
•2022: 22.0%
•2023: 26.3%
•LTM: 30.1%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 20.0%
•2020: 25.4%
•2021: 31.1%
•2022: 18.5%
•2023: 28.0%
•LTM: 33.4%
$META has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $55.84B
•2023: $134.90B
•CAGR: 19.29%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $15.36B
•2023: $43.85B
•CAGR: 23.34%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $7.57
•2023: $14.87
•CAGR: 14.45%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 2.92B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 2.64B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~9.5%, $META increased its EPS by ~10.5% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 39.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 32.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $META has to grow earnings at an 11.60% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (11.60%) required growth rate:
2024E: $20.14 (35.4% YoY)
2025E: $23.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $26.32 (14.2% YoY)
$META has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $META ends 2026 with $26.32 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
24x P/E: $631.68💵 … ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $605.36💵 … ~10.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $579.04💵 … ~8.5% CAGR
As you can see, $META appears to have double-digit CAGR potential if we assume >23x earnings, a multiple slightly below what it’s trading for today and a multiple below what may be justified given its mid-teens earnings growth rate
I also believe that Mark Zuckerberg will continue to execute exceptionally well
Additionally, the increased investment in future growth and necessary AI development has the potential to drive better growth prospects, which could serve as a bullish catalyst for the next several years
Today at $476💵 $META appears to be a good consideration for investment
$META appears to be an excellent deal closer to $450💵 where it has ~11% CAGR po[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® RT @DimitryNakhla: Last month, after reporting strong quarterly results, $META traded down to an attractive level of valuation. Since then, $META shares increased +12.70% 🟢 As I stated in my analysis: “As you can see…
tential assuming 2026E and a 22x multiple (an added layer of margin of safety)
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVOB DC
Thesis: Novo Nordisk, with its leadership in GLP-1 therapies and strong innovation pipeline, is well-positioned for sustained double-digit growth in the expanding obesity and diabetes markets
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/6rS7oTQSMx
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Loomis Sayles on Novo Nordisk $NOVOB DC
Thesis: Novo Nordisk, with its leadership in GLP-1 therapies and strong innovation pipeline, is well-positioned for sustained double-digit growth in the expanding obesity and diabetes markets
(Extract from their Q2 letter) https://t.co/6rS7oTQSMx
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Just published a piece on the electricity sector with a particular focus on the demand factors and the growing investments into the grid. A few companies stand to benefit from this long-term trend, which I will discuss in Part II.
Link in bio. https://t.co/biKKtZLA7J
tweet
Just published a piece on the electricity sector with a particular focus on the demand factors and the growing investments into the grid. A few companies stand to benefit from this long-term trend, which I will discuss in Part II.
Link in bio. https://t.co/biKKtZLA7J
tweet