⁠Hidden Value Gems
The doom loop and four ways it may end, according to @Gavekal

Falling US stocks lead to US dollar declines expectation to Yen strength to Yen carry trade unwinds to more selling of US stocks and so on. https://t.co/MGmvZ7aYZr

A few charts on why Yen carry trade has become such an important factor:

1/ Low rates and low inflation led to Yen weakening, which in turn…

2/ Led to more shorts against Yen and…

3/ More cross-border borrowing in Yen

4/ But a sudden rise in rates and Yen, reversed this “carry trade”. - Hidden Value Gems
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⁠iinvested
2Q'24 Merion Road Capital on $VCTR, $LAKE

https://t.co/crY8866fjc

More fund letters here:
https://t.co/WRGkdL2eBG https://t.co/C64R152izi
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
Just came across this very interesting chart. US share of world GDP and world stock market used to be moving in tandem until 2010 when the two have almost “decoupled”.

The big tech was probably one of the key reasons behind this. The history suggests the largest companies rarely stay on top for long.
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⁠Librarian Capital
US alcohol consumption charts by Bernstein in the FT

Bernstein characterises the current period (since 2011) as "Per Cap Creeps Up, Beer Loses Share"

Per capita spirits volume growing since 2000

cc: $DGE $DEO
https://t.co/OCJyQyC5Gq https://t.co/IRmiYCD3FP
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⁠Librarian Capital
Rightmove $RMV loses OpenRent contract

OpenRent is "agent" with ~700 "branches" (<8%)
estimated impact is 3% drop in membership (2023: 18,785), £90-100 increase in arpa (2023: £1,356)

"reiterates its fy 2024 revenue & margin guidance"
but contract only ends 1-sep

shares -6.8% https://t.co/wvntcfkvai
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⁠Hidden Value Gems
RT @HiddenValueGems: An interesting observation:

“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”

$QQQ #Yen
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⁠Librarian Capital
GCAM (David Poppe) on Eurofins Scientific $ERF

"Transactions with founder & CEO ... are disclosed ... not new ... The report was riddled with dubious assertions (and) did not seem to understand Eurofins is a lab testing business and not an inspection and certification business" https://t.co/DxyfA0AYhA
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⁠Invest In Assets 📈
RT @InvestInAssets: Use these criteria to eliminate 95% of stocks:

Revenue growth 12%
Shares outstanding <2%
net debt to fcf below 5x
free cash flow growth +15%
return on invested capital +15%
earnings per share growth +15%

12 companies that qualify:
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