Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Li Lu on the traits that shaped Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy https://t.co/SXetRg87Rl
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Li Lu on the traits that shaped Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy https://t.co/SXetRg87Rl
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
An interesting observation:
“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”
$QQQ #Yen
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An interesting observation:
“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”
$QQQ #Yen
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm
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I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Has Magnus been learning from AlphaZero? 😃
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Has Magnus been learning from AlphaZero? 😃
Round 1 of the FIDE World Blitz Team Championship has begun! 🔥
Magnus played 1...h5
Watch the live broadcast👇
🔗https://t.co/HPpeJJIrvr https://t.co/MqbhgVChMK tweet
Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Japan Tobacco shares currently down ~17% as part of Tokyo market rout (Nikkei down ~12%) https://t.co/eGs3Sb2d78
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Japan Tobacco shares currently down ~17% as part of Tokyo market rout (Nikkei down ~12%) https://t.co/eGs3Sb2d78
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
My last macro point for today.
“Announced layoffs fell sharply in July to 25,900. During employment-led recessions, this series spikes up, not down.”
h/t @yardeni
Otherwise, it does feel that a lot of technical / forced selling is happening. Going back to bottom up research… https://t.co/hrsG44NP1N
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My last macro point for today.
“Announced layoffs fell sharply in July to 25,900. During employment-led recessions, this series spikes up, not down.”
h/t @yardeni
Otherwise, it does feel that a lot of technical / forced selling is happening. Going back to bottom up research… https://t.co/hrsG44NP1N
I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm tweet
Offshore
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Librarian Capital
L'Oréal buys 10% stake in Galderma for partnership
"To work towards a strategic scientific partnership"
"Will not seek to be represented at Galderma’s Board"
"Off-market block trade with the EQT-led consortium"
Price "non-disclosed", funded by existing cash/credit
$OR $GALD https://t.co/7Mjei0d7hQ
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L'Oréal buys 10% stake in Galderma for partnership
"To work towards a strategic scientific partnership"
"Will not seek to be represented at Galderma’s Board"
"Off-market block trade with the EQT-led consortium"
Price "non-disclosed", funded by existing cash/credit
$OR $GALD https://t.co/7Mjei0d7hQ
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
The Mag7 stocks are down 15% in a month, still up 31% year-to-date. https://t.co/lkAxIRlQrm
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The Mag7 stocks are down 15% in a month, still up 31% year-to-date. https://t.co/lkAxIRlQrm
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
$OCI.AS seems to be on track with its break-up plan. A good deal selling a ‘blue’ ammonia plant in Texas to Woodside for $2.35B. This is 44% of OCI mkt cap.
“Sawiris has already struck deals to sell other parts of OCI. Last December, the group agreed to offload two fertiliser holdings for about $3.6bn apiece, to Adnoc and Koch Industries.”
“In its end-of-year earnings for 2023, OCI said it would distribute at least $3bn to shareholders this year.”
via @FT
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$OCI.AS seems to be on track with its break-up plan. A good deal selling a ‘blue’ ammonia plant in Texas to Woodside for $2.35B. This is 44% of OCI mkt cap.
“Sawiris has already struck deals to sell other parts of OCI. Last December, the group agreed to offload two fertiliser holdings for about $3.6bn apiece, to Adnoc and Koch Industries.”
“In its end-of-year earnings for 2023, OCI said it would distribute at least $3bn to shareholders this year.”
via @FT
Never looked at $OCI in detail. Looks like an activist shareholder and the controlling family are aligned to unlock the value through asset sales and potential dividends?
A story in the @FT https://t.co/l3hNKyrYwI tweet