Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Jon Ossoff on congressional stock trading:
"We have extraordinary access to privileged and confidential information" https://t.co/ncWT7NlIT7
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Senator Jon Ossoff on congressional stock trading:
"We have extraordinary access to privileged and confidential information" https://t.co/ncWT7NlIT7
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Most of the stock market is getting crushed, but defense stocks are rising.
We have reported on several purchases of these stocks by politicians over the last year.
Some of them even sit on the committees that oversee defense spending.
Here’s a short thread: https://t.co/MSDSrXh70e
tweet
Most of the stock market is getting crushed, but defense stocks are rising.
We have reported on several purchases of these stocks by politicians over the last year.
Some of them even sit on the committees that oversee defense spending.
Here’s a short thread: https://t.co/MSDSrXh70e
tweet
Offshore
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Finding Compounders
Li Lu on the traits that shaped Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy https://t.co/SXetRg87Rl
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Li Lu on the traits that shaped Charlie Munger’s investment philosophy https://t.co/SXetRg87Rl
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
An interesting observation:
“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”
$QQQ #Yen
tweet
An interesting observation:
“Since 2023 (at least), speculators borrowed money in Japan at near-zero interest rates. They converted their borrowed yen into dollars, and bought the Nasdaq 100. That drove the yen further down and the Nasdaq 100 further up. This "carry trade" has been unraveling in recent weeks…as the yen continued to soar in response to the Bank of Japan's recent tightening moves.”
$QQQ #Yen
tweet
Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm
tweet
I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm
tweet
Offshore
Video
Hidden Value Gems
Has Magnus been learning from AlphaZero? 😃
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Has Magnus been learning from AlphaZero? 😃
Round 1 of the FIDE World Blitz Team Championship has begun! 🔥
Magnus played 1...h5
Watch the live broadcast👇
🔗https://t.co/HPpeJJIrvr https://t.co/MqbhgVChMK tweet
Offshore
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Librarian Capital
Japan Tobacco shares currently down ~17% as part of Tokyo market rout (Nikkei down ~12%) https://t.co/eGs3Sb2d78
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Japan Tobacco shares currently down ~17% as part of Tokyo market rout (Nikkei down ~12%) https://t.co/eGs3Sb2d78
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Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
My last macro point for today.
“Announced layoffs fell sharply in July to 25,900. During employment-led recessions, this series spikes up, not down.”
h/t @yardeni
Otherwise, it does feel that a lot of technical / forced selling is happening. Going back to bottom up research… https://t.co/hrsG44NP1N
tweet
My last macro point for today.
“Announced layoffs fell sharply in July to 25,900. During employment-led recessions, this series spikes up, not down.”
h/t @yardeni
Otherwise, it does feel that a lot of technical / forced selling is happening. Going back to bottom up research… https://t.co/hrsG44NP1N
I haven’t heard about the SAHM rule until last week. Here is how it works and further thoughts on whether it is causing a market meltdown.
1️⃣ The SAHM rule calculates the difference between the current 3-month average unemployment rate and its lowest value over the previous 12 months.
2️⃣ If this difference exceeds 0.5 pp, the rule suggests that the economy is likely entering a recession.
3️⃣ The idea behind the SAHM rule is that a significant and sustained increase in the unemployment rate is a reliable early signal of economic downturns.
4️⃣ The rule might not work, according to the author, Claudia Sahm:
✅ “I am not concerned that, at this moment, we are in a recession,”
✅ “no one should be in panic mode today”
✅ There are key measures of the economy that “still look really good.”
✅ “[The Sahm Rule] may not tell us what it's told us in the past, because of these swings from labor shortages, with people dropping out of the labor force, to now having immigrants coming lately. That all can show up in changes in the unemployment rate, which is the core of the Sahm Rule.”
cc @Claudia_Sahm tweet