Offshore
Photo
โ Bamboo
RT @oluwadamisi: I'm grateful for apps like @investbamboo the fact that folks can invest in US stocks from naija is truly a blessing, i remember when i started reading books on investment & businesses as far back as 03, all we had was the NSE. Now Investing in orgs I've read about is so cool...
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RT @oluwadamisi: I'm grateful for apps like @investbamboo the fact that folks can invest in US stocks from naija is truly a blessing, i remember when i started reading books on investment & businesses as far back as 03, all we had was the NSE. Now Investing in orgs I've read about is so cool...
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Offshore
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โ Finding Compounders
Dick Fuld , Lehmanโs former CEO, on the cover of BusinessWeek in 2001
If only they knew
Source : financegoldenera https://t.co/I9LYskDEOn
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Dick Fuld , Lehmanโs former CEO, on the cover of BusinessWeek in 2001
If only they knew
Source : financegoldenera https://t.co/I9LYskDEOn
tweet
Offshore
Video
โ Quiver Quantitative
๐จ Just released a new dashboard tracking politicians' fundraising.
It tracks which candidates different companies are funding, and who is donating the most.
Look up a politician to see their corporate donors.
Please share, the more eyes on the data the better.
The fundraising data is collected from FEC filings, and race ratings for members of Congress are provided with permission by The Cook Political Report via its API.
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๐จ Just released a new dashboard tracking politicians' fundraising.
It tracks which candidates different companies are funding, and who is donating the most.
Look up a politician to see their corporate donors.
Please share, the more eyes on the data the better.
The fundraising data is collected from FEC filings, and race ratings for members of Congress are provided with permission by The Cook Political Report via its API.
tweet
โ Kaushik
Citi - We now expect the Fed to start the cutting cycle with 50bp rate cuts in September and November, followed by 25bp cuts at each subsequent meeting until reaching a policy rate of 3-3.25% by mid-2025
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Citi - We now expect the Fed to start the cutting cycle with 50bp rate cuts in September and November, followed by 25bp cuts at each subsequent meeting until reaching a policy rate of 3-3.25% by mid-2025
Citi - Fed to start with 50bp cuts in rapidly weakening labor market tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
Photo
โ Finding Compounders
Just released a newsletter post on Value Traps.
Itโs a great read
Link to the newsletter is in my bio https://t.co/I4Jul5srS1
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Just released a newsletter post on Value Traps.
Itโs a great read
Link to the newsletter is in my bio https://t.co/I4Jul5srS1
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187๐ต
Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% โฆ As I stated:
โ18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48๐ต โฆ ~17% CAGR
16.19x P/OCF*: $275.55๐ต โฆ ~15% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potentialโฆ
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $25.03B
๐Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investmentโ
#stocks #investing
___
When investing in stocks, it's essential to remember that prices don't always rise immediately
What sets quality investors apart from emotional ones is how they respond after a decline
It's crucial to approach investments calmly and strategically, piecing into positions over time
For instance, my research indicated that $AMZN was an good investment opportunity at $187๐ต; now, at $167๐ต, it's even more compelling
Unless you perfectly time the market every time โ which is unrealistic โ you'll inevitably face periods of losses
To succeed, you must become comfortable with temporary setbacks and resist the emotional triggers of fear and greed, which can cloud your judgment
Emotional discipline is vital to becoming a great investor ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.70x
โข15-Year Mean: 24.41x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.95%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.84%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $85.07B
โขLong-Term Debt: $64.13B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 33x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2019: 10.4%
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โขLTM: 12.6%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.9%
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โขLTM: 20.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $232.89B
โข2023: $574.79B
โขCAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $17.30B
โข2023: $32.22B
โขCAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $1.01
โข2023: $2.90
โขCAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.57B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 47.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 8.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 6.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in OCF & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.37 (40% YoY)
2025E: $13.61 (20% YoY)
2026E: $16.21 (19% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.21 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51[...]
Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187๐ต
Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% โฆ As I stated:
โ18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48๐ต โฆ ~17% CAGR
16.19x P/OCF*: $275.55๐ต โฆ ~15% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potentialโฆ
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $25.03B
๐Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investmentโ
#stocks #investing
___
When investing in stocks, it's essential to remember that prices don't always rise immediately
What sets quality investors apart from emotional ones is how they respond after a decline
It's crucial to approach investments calmly and strategically, piecing into positions over time
For instance, my research indicated that $AMZN was an good investment opportunity at $187๐ต; now, at $167๐ต, it's even more compelling
Unless you perfectly time the market every time โ which is unrealistic โ you'll inevitably face periods of losses
To succeed, you must become comfortable with temporary setbacks and resist the emotional triggers of fear and greed, which can cloud your judgment
Emotional discipline is vital to becoming a great investor ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.70x
โข15-Year Mean: 24.41x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.95%
โข10-Year Mean: 2.84%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $85.07B
โขLong-Term Debt: $64.13B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 33x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2019: 10.4%
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โขLTM: 12.6%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.9%
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โขLTM: 20.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2018: $232.89B
โข2023: $574.79B
โขCAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2018: $17.30B
โข2023: $32.22B
โขCAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2018: $1.01
โข2023: $2.90
โขCAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.57B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 47.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 8.0%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 6.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in OCF & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.37 (40% YoY)
2025E: $13.61 (20% YoY)
2026E: $16.21 (19% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.21 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187๐ต Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% โฆ As I stated: โ18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR 17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48๐ต โฆ ~17% CAGR 16.19x P/OCF*:โฆ
x P/E: $299.97๐ต โฆ ~21.59% CAGR
17.00x P/E: $262.48๐ต โฆ ~17.40% CAGR
16.19x P/E: $275.55๐ต โฆ ~15.06% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:
2024E: $61.31B (66.6% YoY)
2025E: $76.44B (24.7% YoY)
2026E: $101.22B (32.4% YoY)
2027E: $119.59B (18.1% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $25.03B
๐Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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17.00x P/E: $262.48๐ต โฆ ~17.40% CAGR
16.19x P/E: $275.55๐ต โฆ ~15.06% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what itโs trading for today, a multiple it hasnโt treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:
2024E: $61.31B (66.6% YoY)
2025E: $76.44B (24.7% YoY)
2026E: $101.22B (32.4% YoY)
2027E: $119.59B (18.1% YoY)
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $25.03B
๐Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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