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🚨 Caught another politician making a suspicious trade around earnings.
Senator Katie Britt sold all her stock in OneWater, $ONEW, last week.
The company just released a poor earnings report, sending the stock plummeting.
It has now fallen 19% since Britt's sale. https://t.co/CnVaTHIEDh
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🚨 Caught another politician making a suspicious trade around earnings.
Senator Katie Britt sold all her stock in OneWater, $ONEW, last week.
The company just released a poor earnings report, sending the stock plummeting.
It has now fallen 19% since Britt's sale. https://t.co/CnVaTHIEDh
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Kaushik
Citi on $CFLT
A respectable 3% total revenue beat in the June Q and solid sequential cloud growth was more than offset by a reiteration of full year targets implying a 3% cut to Q4 revenue growth. Beyond the implicit guidance cut, several key indicators made us incrementally more cautious, including a 5pt QoQ drop in NRR, PCS revenue (arguably cleaner indicator of on-prem biz) declining QoQ while bookings slowed another 10 points. The explanation around cloud optimizations ramping at digital native customers in June is logical, though this was different than what we heard from MSFT (EMEA softness). With cautious partner conversations, which suggested several large marquee, digital native customers were having Issues ramping up consumption (2023 data point) and more recently a rise in competitive displacements, we’re worried issues are company specific and indicate further pricing/commoditization pressure. We further trim below consensus estimates and reiterate Neutral/High-Risk rating dropping TP to $24.
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Citi on $CFLT
A respectable 3% total revenue beat in the June Q and solid sequential cloud growth was more than offset by a reiteration of full year targets implying a 3% cut to Q4 revenue growth. Beyond the implicit guidance cut, several key indicators made us incrementally more cautious, including a 5pt QoQ drop in NRR, PCS revenue (arguably cleaner indicator of on-prem biz) declining QoQ while bookings slowed another 10 points. The explanation around cloud optimizations ramping at digital native customers in June is logical, though this was different than what we heard from MSFT (EMEA softness). With cautious partner conversations, which suggested several large marquee, digital native customers were having Issues ramping up consumption (2023 data point) and more recently a rise in competitive displacements, we’re worried issues are company specific and indicate further pricing/commoditization pressure. We further trim below consensus estimates and reiterate Neutral/High-Risk rating dropping TP to $24.
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Kaushik
$TEAM
Q4 EPS $0.66 vs $0.56 Est
Revenue $1.13B vs $1.08B Est
GUIDANCE:
Q1 2025 revenue $1.149B-1.157B vs $1.6B Est
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 27.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 35.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 13.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (7.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 19.0% on a non-GAAP basis.
Fiscal Year 2025:
- Total revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 16.0%.
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 23.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 20.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 5.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (6.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 21.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
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$TEAM
Q4 EPS $0.66 vs $0.56 Est
Revenue $1.13B vs $1.08B Est
GUIDANCE:
Q1 2025 revenue $1.149B-1.157B vs $1.6B Est
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 27.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 35.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 13.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (7.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 19.0% on a non-GAAP basis.
Fiscal Year 2025:
- Total revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 16.0%.
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 23.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 20.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 5.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (6.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 21.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
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Kaushik
$AAPL PT Raised to $261 at Rosenblatt, Maintains Buy, 'Decent Warm Up Before the Big AI Show'
iPhone -- The iPhone installed base was said to have “grown to a new all-time high in total and in every geographic segment.” iPhone was the top seller in the US, urban China, the UK, Germany, Australia and Japan. Customer satisfaction was said to be 98%, as per 541 Research.
China -- Greater China sales slipped 6.5% Y/Y reported, or less than 3% constant currency. The installed base was said to be at a record, with Mainland China, which also reportedly set a record for "upgraders." iPhone 15 was said to be outselling iPhone 14 in China at comparable time from launch. iPhones had the top 3 selling models in urban China. As for Apple Intelligence, and the need for Apple's AI to be licensed by the government, CEO Tim Cook revealed little except to say Apple was "constructively engaged."
Guidance/Estimates -- Apple is saying Sept. quarter sales growth will be similar to the June quarter's +5%, with services double-digit growth continuing. We assume 5.9% Y/Y consolidated sales growth, with iPhone swinging to up 3%, and accelerating from there, trending toward an AI-fueled mid-teens in F2026. The 5G transition with iPhone 12 drove 39% growth at its peak, and we think this could have comparable platform change dynamics.
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$AAPL PT Raised to $261 at Rosenblatt, Maintains Buy, 'Decent Warm Up Before the Big AI Show'
iPhone -- The iPhone installed base was said to have “grown to a new all-time high in total and in every geographic segment.” iPhone was the top seller in the US, urban China, the UK, Germany, Australia and Japan. Customer satisfaction was said to be 98%, as per 541 Research.
China -- Greater China sales slipped 6.5% Y/Y reported, or less than 3% constant currency. The installed base was said to be at a record, with Mainland China, which also reportedly set a record for "upgraders." iPhone 15 was said to be outselling iPhone 14 in China at comparable time from launch. iPhones had the top 3 selling models in urban China. As for Apple Intelligence, and the need for Apple's AI to be licensed by the government, CEO Tim Cook revealed little except to say Apple was "constructively engaged."
Guidance/Estimates -- Apple is saying Sept. quarter sales growth will be similar to the June quarter's +5%, with services double-digit growth continuing. We assume 5.9% Y/Y consolidated sales growth, with iPhone swinging to up 3%, and accelerating from there, trending toward an AI-fueled mid-teens in F2026. The 5G transition with iPhone 12 drove 39% growth at its peak, and we think this could have comparable platform change dynamics.
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Kaushik
$AMZN Piper - For Top Pick AMZN, 2Q was a mixed quarter. On the positive, AWS is solidly in reacceleration mode with growth at 19% and exceeding the Street outlook. However, retail revenue was light and the guide weak for 3Q revenue and profit. We still think retail margins are improving, but wish we didn’t have the distraction of the science experiments. We move on from the quarter and reiterate OW; PT to $215 from $220
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$AMZN Piper - For Top Pick AMZN, 2Q was a mixed quarter. On the positive, AWS is solidly in reacceleration mode with growth at 19% and exceeding the Street outlook. However, retail revenue was light and the guide weak for 3Q revenue and profit. We still think retail margins are improving, but wish we didn’t have the distraction of the science experiments. We move on from the quarter and reiterate OW; PT to $215 from $220
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Kaushik
$MELI PT Raised to $2,025 at BTIG
MELI delivered the goods, literally and figuratively, in 2Q24. Riding the fastest growth in items sold (+29% y/y) in over 3 years, MELI generated GMV of $12.7B, easily topping the $11.8B consensus. GMV strength was broad-based with local FX growth of 36% in Brazil vs. our 24%, 30% in Mexico vs. our 23%, and 252% in Argentina vs. our 215%. The robust performance in Brazil is especially impressive given MELI already controls an estimated ~40% of the market. Unique buyers rose by 3.1MM q/q, the largest non-Holiday quarter growth since the pandemic and items per buyer of 7.4 also rose to a new non-Holiday high, per our records. Fintech results were no slouch either. TPV of $46.3B bested the Street's $44.7B and Acquiring TPV accelerated in all three key geographies while growing 75% overall in local FX. Fintech take-rate expanded 3 bps q/q and, more importantly, MELI captured 110 bps of gross margin expansion from credit & fintech funding. All of these positives led to revenue of $5.1B, soundly above the Street's $4.6B and our $4.7B. Adjusted EBITDA was $880MM vs. the Street's $812MM and our $769MM. Impressively, Argentina's direct contribution margin improved nearly 800 bps q/q and is already nearly back to pre-devaluation levels. One spoiler is FX, which will weigh on upcoming quarters as major LatAm currencies have recently fallen vs. the dollar. As such, we are modeling GMV to decline sequentially to $12.4B, but that is still above the Street's $11.8B. At 2Q FX rates, our 3Q GMV estimate would be over $13B. While we take up our growth estimates, higher loss provisions and FX lead us to maintain our FY25 EBITDA estimate of $4.0B. Despite our EBITDA estimate staying intact, we raise our PT to $2,025 from $1,885 as we believe the stronger organic growth outlook warrants a higher target multiple.
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$MELI PT Raised to $2,025 at BTIG
MELI delivered the goods, literally and figuratively, in 2Q24. Riding the fastest growth in items sold (+29% y/y) in over 3 years, MELI generated GMV of $12.7B, easily topping the $11.8B consensus. GMV strength was broad-based with local FX growth of 36% in Brazil vs. our 24%, 30% in Mexico vs. our 23%, and 252% in Argentina vs. our 215%. The robust performance in Brazil is especially impressive given MELI already controls an estimated ~40% of the market. Unique buyers rose by 3.1MM q/q, the largest non-Holiday quarter growth since the pandemic and items per buyer of 7.4 also rose to a new non-Holiday high, per our records. Fintech results were no slouch either. TPV of $46.3B bested the Street's $44.7B and Acquiring TPV accelerated in all three key geographies while growing 75% overall in local FX. Fintech take-rate expanded 3 bps q/q and, more importantly, MELI captured 110 bps of gross margin expansion from credit & fintech funding. All of these positives led to revenue of $5.1B, soundly above the Street's $4.6B and our $4.7B. Adjusted EBITDA was $880MM vs. the Street's $812MM and our $769MM. Impressively, Argentina's direct contribution margin improved nearly 800 bps q/q and is already nearly back to pre-devaluation levels. One spoiler is FX, which will weigh on upcoming quarters as major LatAm currencies have recently fallen vs. the dollar. As such, we are modeling GMV to decline sequentially to $12.4B, but that is still above the Street's $11.8B. At 2Q FX rates, our 3Q GMV estimate would be over $13B. While we take up our growth estimates, higher loss provisions and FX lead us to maintain our FY25 EBITDA estimate of $4.0B. Despite our EBITDA estimate staying intact, we raise our PT to $2,025 from $1,885 as we believe the stronger organic growth outlook warrants a higher target multiple.
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