Offshore
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Hidden Value Gems
Fantastic reminder of the importance of focus in any endeavour.
A 30-yo Nike founder working 6 days as an auditor and weekends, nights and holidays on his startup 👇🏼 https://t.co/Uhz637r6RP
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Fantastic reminder of the importance of focus in any endeavour.
A 30-yo Nike founder working 6 days as an auditor and weekends, nights and holidays on his startup 👇🏼 https://t.co/Uhz637r6RP
Almost a six-hour flight ahead, how far will I get here? 😉
$NKE https://t.co/Ttq2GlVwup tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 Caught another politician making a suspicious trade around earnings.
Senator Katie Britt sold all her stock in OneWater, $ONEW, last week.
The company just released a poor earnings report, sending the stock plummeting.
It has now fallen 19% since Britt's sale. https://t.co/CnVaTHIEDh
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🚨 Caught another politician making a suspicious trade around earnings.
Senator Katie Britt sold all her stock in OneWater, $ONEW, last week.
The company just released a poor earnings report, sending the stock plummeting.
It has now fallen 19% since Britt's sale. https://t.co/CnVaTHIEDh
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Kaushik
Citi on $CFLT
A respectable 3% total revenue beat in the June Q and solid sequential cloud growth was more than offset by a reiteration of full year targets implying a 3% cut to Q4 revenue growth. Beyond the implicit guidance cut, several key indicators made us incrementally more cautious, including a 5pt QoQ drop in NRR, PCS revenue (arguably cleaner indicator of on-prem biz) declining QoQ while bookings slowed another 10 points. The explanation around cloud optimizations ramping at digital native customers in June is logical, though this was different than what we heard from MSFT (EMEA softness). With cautious partner conversations, which suggested several large marquee, digital native customers were having Issues ramping up consumption (2023 data point) and more recently a rise in competitive displacements, we’re worried issues are company specific and indicate further pricing/commoditization pressure. We further trim below consensus estimates and reiterate Neutral/High-Risk rating dropping TP to $24.
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Citi on $CFLT
A respectable 3% total revenue beat in the June Q and solid sequential cloud growth was more than offset by a reiteration of full year targets implying a 3% cut to Q4 revenue growth. Beyond the implicit guidance cut, several key indicators made us incrementally more cautious, including a 5pt QoQ drop in NRR, PCS revenue (arguably cleaner indicator of on-prem biz) declining QoQ while bookings slowed another 10 points. The explanation around cloud optimizations ramping at digital native customers in June is logical, though this was different than what we heard from MSFT (EMEA softness). With cautious partner conversations, which suggested several large marquee, digital native customers were having Issues ramping up consumption (2023 data point) and more recently a rise in competitive displacements, we’re worried issues are company specific and indicate further pricing/commoditization pressure. We further trim below consensus estimates and reiterate Neutral/High-Risk rating dropping TP to $24.
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Kaushik
$TEAM
Q4 EPS $0.66 vs $0.56 Est
Revenue $1.13B vs $1.08B Est
GUIDANCE:
Q1 2025 revenue $1.149B-1.157B vs $1.6B Est
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 27.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 35.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 13.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (7.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 19.0% on a non-GAAP basis.
Fiscal Year 2025:
- Total revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 16.0%.
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 23.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 20.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 5.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (6.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 21.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
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$TEAM
Q4 EPS $0.66 vs $0.56 Est
Revenue $1.13B vs $1.08B Est
GUIDANCE:
Q1 2025 revenue $1.149B-1.157B vs $1.6B Est
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 27.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 35.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 13.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (7.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 19.0% on a non-GAAP basis.
Fiscal Year 2025:
- Total revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 16.0%.
- Cloud revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 23.0%.
- Data Center revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 20.0%.
- Other revenue growth YoY is expected to be approximately 5.0%.
- Gross margin is expected to be approximately 81.0% on a GAAP basis and approximately 83.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
- Operating margin is expected to be approximately (6.0%) on a GAAP basis and approximately 21.5% on a non-GAAP basis.
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Kaushik
$AAPL PT Raised to $261 at Rosenblatt, Maintains Buy, 'Decent Warm Up Before the Big AI Show'
iPhone -- The iPhone installed base was said to have “grown to a new all-time high in total and in every geographic segment.” iPhone was the top seller in the US, urban China, the UK, Germany, Australia and Japan. Customer satisfaction was said to be 98%, as per 541 Research.
China -- Greater China sales slipped 6.5% Y/Y reported, or less than 3% constant currency. The installed base was said to be at a record, with Mainland China, which also reportedly set a record for "upgraders." iPhone 15 was said to be outselling iPhone 14 in China at comparable time from launch. iPhones had the top 3 selling models in urban China. As for Apple Intelligence, and the need for Apple's AI to be licensed by the government, CEO Tim Cook revealed little except to say Apple was "constructively engaged."
Guidance/Estimates -- Apple is saying Sept. quarter sales growth will be similar to the June quarter's +5%, with services double-digit growth continuing. We assume 5.9% Y/Y consolidated sales growth, with iPhone swinging to up 3%, and accelerating from there, trending toward an AI-fueled mid-teens in F2026. The 5G transition with iPhone 12 drove 39% growth at its peak, and we think this could have comparable platform change dynamics.
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$AAPL PT Raised to $261 at Rosenblatt, Maintains Buy, 'Decent Warm Up Before the Big AI Show'
iPhone -- The iPhone installed base was said to have “grown to a new all-time high in total and in every geographic segment.” iPhone was the top seller in the US, urban China, the UK, Germany, Australia and Japan. Customer satisfaction was said to be 98%, as per 541 Research.
China -- Greater China sales slipped 6.5% Y/Y reported, or less than 3% constant currency. The installed base was said to be at a record, with Mainland China, which also reportedly set a record for "upgraders." iPhone 15 was said to be outselling iPhone 14 in China at comparable time from launch. iPhones had the top 3 selling models in urban China. As for Apple Intelligence, and the need for Apple's AI to be licensed by the government, CEO Tim Cook revealed little except to say Apple was "constructively engaged."
Guidance/Estimates -- Apple is saying Sept. quarter sales growth will be similar to the June quarter's +5%, with services double-digit growth continuing. We assume 5.9% Y/Y consolidated sales growth, with iPhone swinging to up 3%, and accelerating from there, trending toward an AI-fueled mid-teens in F2026. The 5G transition with iPhone 12 drove 39% growth at its peak, and we think this could have comparable platform change dynamics.
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