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โ Invest In Assets ๐
RT @InvestInAssets: 18 Quality companies that every investor should know
Quality businesses purchased at the right price have outperformed the market over time.
Here are 18 stocks to consider: https://t.co/I8ZslFu1vA
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RT @InvestInAssets: 18 Quality companies that every investor should know
Quality businesses purchased at the right price have outperformed the market over time.
Here are 18 stocks to consider: https://t.co/I8ZslFu1vA
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โ Brandon Beylo
RT @marketplunger1: We are long Fenix Resources $FEX.
The market sees a single-asset iron ore producer w/ low mine life.
We see a business growing production to 4Mt/year in 1-2 years w/ path towards 10Mt/yr.
900% upside + net cash/port asset value protection
Read here ๐
https://t.co/CgCtOLLUXZ
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RT @marketplunger1: We are long Fenix Resources $FEX.
The market sees a single-asset iron ore producer w/ low mine life.
We see a business growing production to 4Mt/year in 1-2 years w/ path towards 10Mt/yr.
900% upside + net cash/port asset value protection
Read here ๐
https://t.co/CgCtOLLUXZ
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Offshore
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โ Invest In Assets ๐
The perfect company has:
โข Steady growth
โข Organic growth
โข Diversified growth
โข Expanding growth
โข Recurring revenue
Let's break it down https://t.co/3zcOGLODYt
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The perfect company has:
โข Steady growth
โข Organic growth
โข Diversified growth
โข Expanding growth
โข Recurring revenue
Let's break it down https://t.co/3zcOGLODYt
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: $GOOG $GOOGL Q2 2024 Highlights ๐๐ฝ
โขTotal Cash & Equiv: $100.72B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.23B
A solid report from $GOOG with +28.83% YoY growth in Google Cloud โ๏ธ
#stocks #investing https://t.co/9YjejR0H1I
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RT @DimitryNakhla: $GOOG $GOOGL Q2 2024 Highlights ๐๐ฝ
โขTotal Cash & Equiv: $100.72B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.23B
A solid report from $GOOG with +28.83% YoY growth in Google Cloud โ๏ธ
#stocks #investing https://t.co/9YjejR0H1I
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
15 Quality Stocks Double-Digit EPS Growth 2025-2026 | LTM ROIC | FFO Int Coverage ๐ต
๐จ๏ธ ASML Holding $ASML
โข2025E: $29.85 (58.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $34.61 (16.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 39.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 33.92x
๐ณ Mastercard $MA
โข2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
โข2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 64.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 19.79x
๐ S&P Global $SPGI
โข2025E: $16.15 (12.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $18.16 (12.5% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 12.58x
๐ธ Visa $V
โข2025E: $11.08 (11.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $12.56 (13.4% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 35.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 31.19x
๐ Salesforce $CRM
โข2025E: $11.01 (11.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $12.60 (14.4% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 413.45x
๐ฑ๏ธ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
โข2025E: $8.73 (14.0% YoY)
โข2026E: $9.95 (14.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 31.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 341.10x
๐ธ Meta Platforms $META
โข2025E: $23.19 (14.4% YoY)
โข2026E: $26.28 (13.3% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 30.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 147.42x
๐งฌ Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
โข2025E: $24.09 (10.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $26.97 (11.9% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 6.38x
๐ฆ Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
โข2025E: $6.68 (11.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $7.41 (11.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 7.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 4.47x
๐ Intuit $INTU
โข2025E: $19.20 (13.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $22.09 (15.1% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 15.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 21.24x
๐ Old Dominion Freight $ODFL
โข2025E: $6.66 (16.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $7.56 (13.6% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 40.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 3,381x
๐ Copart $CPRT
โข2025E: $1.63 (13.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $1.80 (10.5% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 21.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: n/a (nominal debt)
๐ MSCI Inc $MSCI
โข2025E: $16.76 (13.1% YoY)
โข2026E: $19.06 (13.7% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 36.3%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 7.10x
๐งพ PayPal $PYPL
โข2025E: $4.58 (10.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $5.08 (11.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 15.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 16.16x
๐ฅค Monster Beverage $MNST
โข2025E: $2.03 (14.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $2.29 (12.9% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 24.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 5,136x
___
The FFO (Funds From Operations) interest coverage ratio is a financial metric that measures a company's ability to pay its interest expenses from its cash flow. It's calculated by dividing the company's FFO by its interest expenses. FFO is a measure of a company's cash flow from its core business operations, excluding non-cash items like depreciation and amortization.
A higher FFO interest coverage ratio is considered good because it indicates that a company has sufficient cash flow to cover its interest expenses, making it less likely to default on its debt obligations. A higher ratio also suggests that a company has more flexibility to take on additional debt, invest in growth opportunities, or return capital to shareholders. Generally, a ratio of 4.00x or higher is considered healthy, but the ideal ratio can vary depending on the industry and company-specific factors.
________
#stocks #investing
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15 Quality Stocks Double-Digit EPS Growth 2025-2026 | LTM ROIC | FFO Int Coverage ๐ต
๐จ๏ธ ASML Holding $ASML
โข2025E: $29.85 (58.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $34.61 (16.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 39.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 33.92x
๐ณ Mastercard $MA
โข2025E: $16.57 (16.1% YoY)
โข2026E: $19.33 (16.7% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 64.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 19.79x
๐ S&P Global $SPGI
โข2025E: $16.15 (12.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $18.16 (12.5% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 12.58x
๐ธ Visa $V
โข2025E: $11.08 (11.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $12.56 (13.4% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 35.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 31.19x
๐ Salesforce $CRM
โข2025E: $11.01 (11.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $12.60 (14.4% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 413.45x
๐ฑ๏ธ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
โข2025E: $8.73 (14.0% YoY)
โข2026E: $9.95 (14.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 31.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 341.10x
๐ธ Meta Platforms $META
โข2025E: $23.19 (14.4% YoY)
โข2026E: $26.28 (13.3% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 30.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 147.42x
๐งฌ Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
โข2025E: $24.09 (10.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $26.97 (11.9% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 9.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 6.38x
๐ฆ Intercontinental Exchange $ICE
โข2025E: $6.68 (11.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $7.41 (11.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 7.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 4.47x
๐ Intuit $INTU
โข2025E: $19.20 (13.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $22.09 (15.1% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 15.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 21.24x
๐ Old Dominion Freight $ODFL
โข2025E: $6.66 (16.8% YoY)
โข2026E: $7.56 (13.6% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 40.1%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 3,381x
๐ Copart $CPRT
โข2025E: $1.63 (13.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $1.80 (10.5% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 21.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: n/a (nominal debt)
๐ MSCI Inc $MSCI
โข2025E: $16.76 (13.1% YoY)
โข2026E: $19.06 (13.7% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 36.3%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 7.10x
๐งพ PayPal $PYPL
โข2025E: $4.58 (10.2% YoY)
โข2026E: $5.08 (11.0% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 15.7%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 16.16x
๐ฅค Monster Beverage $MNST
โข2025E: $2.03 (14.7% YoY)
โข2026E: $2.29 (12.9% YoY)
โขLTM ROIC: 24.0%
โขFFO Int Coverage: 5,136x
___
The FFO (Funds From Operations) interest coverage ratio is a financial metric that measures a company's ability to pay its interest expenses from its cash flow. It's calculated by dividing the company's FFO by its interest expenses. FFO is a measure of a company's cash flow from its core business operations, excluding non-cash items like depreciation and amortization.
A higher FFO interest coverage ratio is considered good because it indicates that a company has sufficient cash flow to cover its interest expenses, making it less likely to default on its debt obligations. A higher ratio also suggests that a company has more flexibility to take on additional debt, invest in growth opportunities, or return capital to shareholders. Generally, a ratio of 4.00x or higher is considered healthy, but the ideal ratio can vary depending on the industry and company-specific factors.
________
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: On April 10, 2024, I posted my analysis on $MSCI, arguing it was overvalued at $542๐ต and an attractive buy at $450๐ต
Since then, the stock has fallen over -17%, dipping just below my target price of $450๐ต
Shortly after hitting my $450๐ต price target, $MSCI shares rebounded, surging over 23% ๐
As I stated in my analysis:
โAs you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, Iโd demand greater value from $MSCI
Iโd likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450๐ต or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)โ
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ."
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
โข10-Year Mean: 34.88x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 23.4%
โข2020: 28.6%
โข2021: 26.5%
โข2022: 33.0%
โข2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2019: (463.5%)
โข2020: (231.5%)
โข2021: (239.3%)
โข2022: (148.6%)
โข2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $0.91B
โข2023: $2.53B
โขCAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $280.93M
โข2023: $1.21B
โขCAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.16
โข2023: $13.52
โขCAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: On April 10, 2024, I posted my analysis on $MSCI, arguing it was overvalued at $542๐ต and an attractive buy at $450๐ต
Since then, the stock has fallen over -17%, dipping just below my target price of $450๐ต
Shortly after hitting my $450๐ต price target, $MSCI shares rebounded, surging over 23% ๐
As I stated in my analysis:
โAs you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, Iโd demand greater value from $MSCI
Iโd likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450๐ต or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)โ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ."
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
โข10-Year Mean: 34.88x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 23.4%
โข2020: 28.6%
โข2021: 26.5%
โข2022: 33.0%
โข2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2019: (463.5%)
โข2020: (231.5%)
โข2021: (239.3%)
โข2022: (148.6%)
โข2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $0.91B
โข2023: $2.53B
โขCAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $280.93M
โข2023: $1.21B
โขCAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $2.16
โข2023: $13.52
โขCAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: On April 10, 2024, I posted my analysis on $MSCI, arguing it was overvalued at $542๐ต and an attractive buy at $450๐ต Since then, the stock has fallen over -17%, dipping just below my target price of $450๐ตโฆ
34x P/E: $661.30๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
32x P/E: $622.40๐ต โฆ ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50๐ต โฆ ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60๐ต โฆ ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, Iโd demand greater value from $MSCI
Iโd likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450๐ต or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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32x P/E: $622.40๐ต โฆ ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50๐ต โฆ ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60๐ต โฆ ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, Iโd demand greater value from $MSCI
Iโd likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450๐ต or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
I hope you guys enjoy our 1H 2024 Macro Ops Portfolio Review.
We are off to a decent start with a lot of room for improvement.
Here's to a great second half of the year.
https://t.co/XqRomZdi0K
tweet
I hope you guys enjoy our 1H 2024 Macro Ops Portfolio Review.
We are off to a decent start with a lot of room for improvement.
Here's to a great second half of the year.
https://t.co/XqRomZdi0K
tweet