Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
What Stanley Druckenmiller learned from George Soros:
"It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong ... but how much you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong."
"When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular."
"If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you."
The ๐
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What Stanley Druckenmiller learned from George Soros:
"It doesn't matter if you're right or wrong ... but how much you make when you're right, and how much you lose when you're wrong."
"When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular."
"If you're extremely confident, taking a loss doesn't bother you."
The ๐
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Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
It takes 29 years to develop a new mine in the United States.
But yes, we'll have the metals we need to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
And we'll do it without China's help.
Lol.
#mining #commodities https://t.co/g9Z3cgtf7L
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It takes 29 years to develop a new mine in the United States.
But yes, we'll have the metals we need to achieve Net Zero by 2050.
And we'll do it without China's help.
Lol.
#mining #commodities https://t.co/g9Z3cgtf7L
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Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc
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I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
RT @TheTungstenGuy: For anyone interested in what Iโve been working on the past couple of months!
Be on the lookout for additional information over the coming weeks, but here is a great preview with @marketplunger1.
Thanks for having me on!
tweet
RT @TheTungstenGuy: For anyone interested in what Iโve been working on the past couple of months!
Be on the lookout for additional information over the coming weeks, but here is a great preview with @marketplunger1.
Thanks for having me on!
I hope you enjoy my conversation with @TheTungstenGuy.
This podcast will light a fire under anyone interested in commodities, critical minerals, and reshoring US production.
Taylor is building a US-based tungsten company from scratch.
Here's how.
Link in comments. https://t.co/EhpkfZ0IJc tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Brandon Beylo
What are we reading this weekend?
Iโll go first.
(Side note: this book is so heavy it could kill a man) https://t.co/MeRZw3z5ln
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What are we reading this weekend?
Iโll go first.
(Side note: this book is so heavy it could kill a man) https://t.co/MeRZw3z5ln
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Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: This is what happens when you pay a ludicrous 50x earnings for a business that does not meet growth estimates ๐
$NKE down nearly -60% from its highs โผ๏ธ
Multiples, relative to growth estimates, matter ๐ฏ
#stocks #investing https://t.co/slqst29rL4
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RT @DimitryNakhla: This is what happens when you pay a ludicrous 50x earnings for a business that does not meet growth estimates ๐
$NKE down nearly -60% from its highs โผ๏ธ
Multiples, relative to growth estimates, matter ๐ฏ
#stocks #investing https://t.co/slqst29rL4
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS THIS WEEK JULY 22 - 26๐๏ธ
๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
PM๐
$BRO $CDNS $MEDP
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$MSCI $KO $DHR $PM $UPS $SHW $MCO $BTI $LMT $AOS
PM๐
$GOOG $V $TSLA $TXN $CNI $CB
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$TMO $ODFL $T $APH $CME $GD $ROP
PM๐
$KLAC $CMG $WM $NOW $IBM $F $EW $TER
๐๐ก๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$ABBV $UNP $NOC $HON $NDAQ $STM $TSCO $POOL $WST
PM๐
$NSC $LHX
๐ ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$BMY $AON $CL $TROW $MMM
#stocks #investing
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NOTABLE EARNINGS REPORTS THIS WEEK JULY 22 - 26๐๏ธ
๐๐จ๐ง๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
PM๐
$BRO $CDNS $MEDP
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$MSCI $KO $DHR $PM $UPS $SHW $MCO $BTI $LMT $AOS
PM๐
$GOOG $V $TSLA $TXN $CNI $CB
๐๐๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$TMO $ODFL $T $APH $CME $GD $ROP
PM๐
$KLAC $CMG $WM $NOW $IBM $F $EW $TER
๐๐ก๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$ABBV $UNP $NOC $HON $NDAQ $STM $TSCO $POOL $WST
PM๐
$NSC $LHX
๐ ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฒ๐๏ธ
AMโ๏ธ
$BMY $AON $CL $TROW $MMM
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $ELV ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 12.61x
โข5-Year Mean: 14.00x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 6.28%
โข5-Year Mean: 7.00%
As you can see, $ELV appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ELV is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $6.50B
โขTotal Investments: $37.15B
โขLong-Term Debt: $24.56B
$ELV has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 7.83x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 12.3%
โข2020: 14.7%
โข2021: 14.3%
โข2022: 13.6%
โข2023: 14.7%
โขLTM: 14.6%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 16.0%
โข2020: 14.1%
โข2021: 17.7%
โข2022: 16.3%
โข2023: 15.8%
โขLTM: 16.6%
$ELV has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $71.02B
โข2023: $171.34B
โขCAGR: 9.20%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $2.41B
โข2023: $6.77B
โขCAGR: 10.88%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $8.52
โข2023: $33.14
โขCAGR: 14.54%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 303.80M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 234.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.6%, $ELV increases its EPS by ~29.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS๐
โขLTM Gross Margins: 9.4%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 6.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 3.9%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $1.50
โข2023: $5.92
โขCAGR: 14.71%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ELV has to grow earnings at a 6.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (6.31%) required growth rate:
2024E: $37.27 (12.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $41.71 (11.9% YoY)
2026E: $47.00 (12.7% YoY)
$ELV has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $ELV ends 2026 with $47.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
15x P/E: $705.00๐ต โฆ ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $658.00๐ต โฆ ~12.9% CAGR
13.5x P/E: $611.00๐ต โฆ ~11.3% CAGR
13x P/E: $611.00๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ELV has attractive CAGR potential if we assume a >13.5x multiple (below its 14.00x 5-year mean & below its 14.21x 10-year mean)
This assumption is MORE than reasonable for a business thatโs growing earnings at a >10% rate & has a strong history of linear earnings growth ( $ELV has increased EPS annually since 2008 ๐ฏ)
I also like the negative price correlation $ELV can have, relative to tech, in the short-term โฆ adding a layer of safety in a portfolio
In short, $ELV appears to be a worthwhile consideration at $500๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ELV ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 12.61x
โข5-Year Mean: 14.00x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 6.28%
โข5-Year Mean: 7.00%
As you can see, $ELV appears to be trading somewhere near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ELV is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $6.50B
โขTotal Investments: $37.15B
โขLong-Term Debt: $24.56B
$ELV has a strong balance sheet, an A S&P Credit Rating & 7.83x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 12.3%
โข2020: 14.7%
โข2021: 14.3%
โข2022: 13.6%
โข2023: 14.7%
โขLTM: 14.6%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 16.0%
โข2020: 14.1%
โข2021: 17.7%
โข2022: 16.3%
โข2023: 15.8%
โขLTM: 16.6%
$ELV has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $71.02B
โข2023: $171.34B
โขCAGR: 9.20%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $2.41B
โข2023: $6.77B
โขCAGR: 10.88%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $8.52
โข2023: $33.14
โขCAGR: 14.54%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 303.80M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 234.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~22.6%, $ELV increases its EPS by ~29.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS๐
โขLTM Gross Margins: 9.4%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 6.1%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 3.9%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $1.50
โข2023: $5.92
โขCAGR: 14.71%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ELV has to grow earnings at a 6.31% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (6.31%) required growth rate:
2024E: $37.27 (12.4% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $41.71 (11.9% YoY)
2026E: $47.00 (12.7% YoY)
$ELV has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $ELV ends 2026 with $47.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
15x P/E: $705.00๐ต โฆ ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $658.00๐ต โฆ ~12.9% CAGR
13.5x P/E: $611.00๐ต โฆ ~11.3% CAGR
13x P/E: $611.00๐ต โฆ ~9.7% CAGR
As you can see, $ELV has attractive CAGR potential if we assume a >13.5x multiple (below its 14.00x 5-year mean & below its 14.21x 10-year mean)
This assumption is MORE than reasonable for a business thatโs growing earnings at a >10% rate & has a strong history of linear earnings growth ( $ELV has increased EPS annually since 2008 ๐ฏ)
I also like the negative price correlation $ELV can have, relative to tech, in the short-term โฆ adding a layer of safety in a portfolio
In short, $ELV appears to be a worthwhile consideration at $500๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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