⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
One month ago I shared my analysis on $UNH suggesting it was substantially undervalued at $489💵

Since that post, $UNH is now trading ~12% higher 💸

As I stated in my analysis:

“Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.72%) required growth rate:

2024E: $27.71 (10.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.97 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $34.97 (12.9% YoY)

$UNH has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $UNH ends 2026 with $34.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

19x P/E: $664.43💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

18x P/E: $629.46💵 … ~12.1% CAGR

17x P/E: $594.49💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $UNH appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 18x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)

That’s a solid rate of return for an excellent capital allocator & wide-moat recession-proof business like $UNH

Today at $489💵 $UNH appears to be a good consideration for investment ”

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."

A sober valuation analysis on $UNH 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 17.44x
•5-Year Mean: 19.73x

•NTM FCF Yield: 5.79%
•5-Year Mean: 5.82%

As you can see, $UNH appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~13% MORE in earnings per share & ~1% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $UNH is a great business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Total Inv: $78.61B
•Long-Term Debt: $63.85B

$UNH has a strong balance sheet, an A+ S&P Credit Rating & 4.16x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 18.6%
•2020: 19.1%
•2021: 19.1%
•2022: 19.4%
•2023: 19.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 24.1%
•2020: 23.8%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 25.4%
•2023: 25.0%

$UNH has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $122.49B
•2023: $371.62B
•CAGR: 11.73%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $5.68B
•2023: $25.68B
•CAGR: 16.28%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.50
•2023: $25.12
•CAGR: 16.40%

PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $1.05
•2023: $7.29
•CAGR: 21.38%

SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.02B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 0.93B

By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.8%, $UNH increased its EPS by ~9.6% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 14.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 8.5%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 4.0%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~13% MORE in EPS & ~1% LESS in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $UNH has to grow earnings at a 8.72% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (8.72%) required growt[...]

h rate:

2024E: $27.71 (10.3% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.97 (11.8% YoY)
2026E: $34.97 (12.9% YoY)

$UNH has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $UNH ends 2026 with $34.97 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

19x P/E: $664.43💵 … ~14.5% CAGR

18x P/E: $629.46💵 … ~12.1% CAGR

17x P/E: $594.49💵 … ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $UNH appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 18x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean)

That’s a solid rate of return for an excellent capital allocator & wide-moat recession-proof business like $UNH

Today at $489💵 $UNH appears to be a good consideration for investment

However, keep in mind how volatile $UNH (and all health insurers) can get amid regulatory & political risks

Those considering $UNH would be wise to piece into the position, leaving room for additional purchases if $UNH continues to trade down to an even more attractive valuation

E.g. 1/3 of the purchase at $489💵, another 1/3 at $440💵, & 1/3 at $390💵

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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AkhenOsiris
Trump on Big Tech:

Bloomberg Businessweek: During his presidency and afterward, Trump frequently took aim at the US tech industry. For much of that time, Twitter (now X) was his platform of choice for venting displeasure with companies such as Facebook, Google and Twitter itself, pre-Elon Musk. In 2020 he signed an executive order reducing legal protections for social media platforms under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act of 1996. And his government launched antitrust probes into Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google—actions carried on and expanded under Biden.

Trump’s attacks on Big Tech have never been ironclad statements of policy or principle, exactly. Not unlike his tariff proposals, they’ve served at least as much as leverage plays—his staking out negotiating positions that companies and CEOs must respond to. The central complaint he and Republicans used to make was that tech companies were biased against conservatives—shadow-banning them, deplatforming them and (allegedly) suppressing right-leaning sources in search results. Today, Trump’s focus is on a more broadly appealing charge: that out-of-control tech companies are harming children—to the point, even, of causing a nationwide epidemic of suicides. “They have become too big, too powerful,” he argues. “They’re having a huge negative impact on, especially, young people.”

This position may stem from Trump’s understanding of how televised drama can shape public opinion. In February, during a Senate hearing of tech executives, Zuckerberg was effectively bullied into apologizing to families in the audience who said social media abuse had driven their children to suicide. It was an arresting moment, and Trump has harnessed the charge for his campaign. “I don’t want them destroying our youth,” he says of the social media companies. “You see what they’re doing—including, even, suicides.”

“If you don’t have TikTok, you have Facebook and Instagram—and that’s, you know, that’s Zuckerberg”

Moments later, however, he’s defending many of these same platforms as vital bulwarks against Chinese technological supremacy. Trump wants to personally dominate the US companies, but he doesn’t want foreign competitors replacing them. “I respect them greatly,” he insists of the companies he was just bashing. “If you go after them very violently, you can destroy them. I don’t want to destroy them.”
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Quality Stocks That Consistently Achieved ROIC >20% ANNUALLY For The Last 10 Years 💸

🚘 Copart $CPRT
•NTM P/E: 34.23x
•5-Year Mean: 32.22x

💽 Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
•NTM P/E: 24.58x
•5-Year Mean: 21.25x

🏊🏼‍♂️ Pool Corp $POOL
•NTM P/E: 26.42x
•5-Year Mean: 29.54x

💳 Mastercard $MA
•NTM P/E: 30.45x
•5-Year Mean: 35.36x

🏢 NVR Inc $NVR
•NTM P/E: 15.46x
•5-Year Mean: 14.50x

🚛 Old Dominion Freight Line $ODFL
•NTM P/E: 27.34x
•5-Year Mean: 28.82x

💰 Automatic Data Processing $ADP
•NTM P/E: 25.53x
•5-Year Mean: 28.11x

🍎 Apple $AAPL
•NTM P/E: 28.51x
•5-Year Mean: 25.80x

🔩 Fastenal $FAST
•NTM P/E: 30.63x
•5-Year Mean: 29.05x

🩳 Lululemon $LULU
•NTM P/E: 22.08x
•5-Year Mean: 42.17x

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Elevance Health $ELV Reports A Strong Q2 👇🏽

Revenue Estimates: $42.9B
Reported Revenue: $43.2B✅

Adjusted EPS Estimates: $10.01
Reported Adjusted EPS: $10.12✅

#stocks #investing https://t.co/08ahC4SRgH
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AkhenOsiris
Just like that, META 10% off high, NVDA even more, while MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL about 5% off.
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AkhenOsiris
😂

I'm a Gen Z welder. This job kills your body, but I'm earning $2,000 a week and getting ripped doing it. trib.al/AglpzbQ - Business Insider
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks PEG <2.50 | using ltm p/e & forward 2-year eps cagr 💸

💽 nvidia $nvda
•ltm p/e: 73.80x
•eps cagr: 68.2%
•peg: 1.08

📸 meta platforms $meta
•ltm p/e: 28.59x
•eps cagr: 24.4%
•peg: 1.17

📱 alphabet $goog $googl
•ltm p/e: 28.21x
•eps cagr: 21.8%
•peg: 1.29

📦 amazon $amzn
•ltm p/e: 54.17x
•eps cagr: 40.7%
•peg: 1.33

🩻 elevance health $elv
•ltm p/e: 20.91x
•eps cagr: 12.1%
•peg: 1.72

🚞 canadian pacific $cp
•ltm p/e: 27.31x
•eps cagr: 15.6%
•peg: 1.75

💳 mastercard $ma
•ltm p/e: 35.24x
•eps cagr: 16.2%
•peg: 2.17

💵 visa $v
•ltm p/e: 30.12x
•eps cagr: 12.9%
•peg: 2.33

☁️ microsoft $msft
•ltm p/e: 38.95x
•eps cagr: 16.5%
•peg: 2.36

🖨️ asml holding nv $asml
•ltm p/e: 54.84x
•eps cagr: 22.3%
•peg: 2.45
___

the peg (price-to-earnings-growth) ratio is a metric that helps investors determine if a stock is reasonably priced considering its growth prospects

it's calculated by dividing the price-to-earnings (p/e) ratio by the company's estimated earnings growth rate

the peg ratio helps investors ensure they're not overpaying for a stock, as a high p/e ratio may be justified if the company has strong growth prospects whereas a low p/e ratio may not be justified if the company has poor growth prospects

#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
Remember how happy Zuck was less than 2 weeks ago on Independence Day? 😂
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AkhenOsiris
RT @MuppetTrading: Another day, another weaker $CRWD datapoint, this time via Keybanc VAR survey. More and more starting to look like SP500 add was THE top.
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