Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @ScroogeCap: $NVDA GB200 overheating?! Uncertainty is what kills stocks.
Fubon is out with a rather interesting note based on SC discussions - NVDA chips are overheating. This is on the back of them raising orders with $TSM.
'If this issue cannot be solved in time, it [...] will have significant impact on nVidia [...] revenue in 2025.
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RT @ScroogeCap: $NVDA GB200 overheating?! Uncertainty is what kills stocks.
Fubon is out with a rather interesting note based on SC discussions - NVDA chips are overheating. This is on the back of them raising orders with $TSM.
'If this issue cannot be solved in time, it [...] will have significant impact on nVidia [...] revenue in 2025.
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AkhenOsiris
RT @firstadopter: Jensen and Mark Zuckerberg to have a 1:1 sit down conversation at SIGGRAPH about the future of AI on July 29. I am told it will be a back and forth conversation. No host.
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RT @firstadopter: Jensen and Mark Zuckerberg to have a 1:1 sit down conversation at SIGGRAPH about the future of AI on July 29. I am told it will be a back and forth conversation. No host.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @elonmusk: The legacy media misled the public
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RT @elonmusk: The legacy media misled the public
Shame on @elonmusk, @BillAckman, and @DavidSacks for “shaping shooting narrative”.
It wasn't shooting, there were just “loud noises” which caused Trump to “fall”, as correctly reported by CNN and NY Times 🤡
_ https://t.co/CXYuZbK3cD tweet
AkhenOsiris
$CRWD $PANW $ZS $FTNT
Citi sees potential Wiz buyout as positive for Crowdstrike, reports are accurate and Alphabet, Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks. The companies can capitalize on "noise" from a lack of vendor neutrality. The potential acquisition of Wiz would be mixed for Zscaler and Check Point and least favorable for SMID-cap players like Fortinet, SentinelOne and Rapid7, adds Citi.
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$CRWD $PANW $ZS $FTNT
Citi sees potential Wiz buyout as positive for Crowdstrike, reports are accurate and Alphabet, Crowdstrike and Palo Alto Networks. The companies can capitalize on "noise" from a lack of vendor neutrality. The potential acquisition of Wiz would be mixed for Zscaler and Check Point and least favorable for SMID-cap players like Fortinet, SentinelOne and Rapid7, adds Citi.
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AkhenOsiris
$ZS Downgraded to Neutral at Mizuho
Mizuho says that while Zscaler remains well positioned within secure access service edge, it is not confident the company can continue to close large, transformative deals at a steady pace, particularly given the macro environment coupled with an increasingly competitive market. In addition, the recent departure of COO Dali Rajic, along with many in sales, adds heightened execution risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the stock having rebounded 31% since reporting fiscal Q3 earnings in late May, Mizuho downgraded the name.
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$ZS Downgraded to Neutral at Mizuho
Mizuho says that while Zscaler remains well positioned within secure access service edge, it is not confident the company can continue to close large, transformative deals at a steady pace, particularly given the macro environment coupled with an increasingly competitive market. In addition, the recent departure of COO Dali Rajic, along with many in sales, adds heightened execution risk, the analyst tells investors in a research note. With the stock having rebounded 31% since reporting fiscal Q3 earnings in late May, Mizuho downgraded the name.
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AkhenOsiris
$SHOP Upgraded to Buy at BofA
BofA says Shopify 'turned a corner,' with a price target of $82, up from $78. Following years of declining margin, the firm believes the company has turned a corner on balanced growth and margin under new CFO Jeff Hoffmeister, the analyst tells investors. The firm forecasts "solid" revenue growth and free cash flow conversion, driven by high single-digit baseline e-commerce growth, steady share gains and disciplined spending, the analyst added.
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$SHOP Upgraded to Buy at BofA
BofA says Shopify 'turned a corner,' with a price target of $82, up from $78. Following years of declining margin, the firm believes the company has turned a corner on balanced growth and margin under new CFO Jeff Hoffmeister, the analyst tells investors. The firm forecasts "solid" revenue growth and free cash flow conversion, driven by high single-digit baseline e-commerce growth, steady share gains and disciplined spending, the analyst added.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Investment & Stock Market Quotes 📝💭
1. “Investing is a business of probabilities, not certainties.” -Benjamin Graham
2. “The biggest risk is not taking any risk.” -Mark Zuckerberg
3. “The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.” -Baron Rothschild
4. “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” -Warren Buffett
5. “Invest for the long haul. It's the best way to tame the market's volatility.” -Peter Lynch
6. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -Warren Buffett
7. “The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'” -Sir John Templeton
8. “If you can't bear the thought of losing 50% of your portfolio, then you shouldn't be in the stock market.” -Mohnish Pabrai
9. “The most important thing is to understand what you're investing in and why.” -Nick Sleep
10. “Investing is not about being brilliant, it's about being consistent.” -Unknown
#stocks #investing
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RT @DimitryNakhla: 10 Investment & Stock Market Quotes 📝💭
1. “Investing is a business of probabilities, not certainties.” -Benjamin Graham
2. “The biggest risk is not taking any risk.” -Mark Zuckerberg
3. “The best time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.” -Baron Rothschild
4. “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” -Warren Buffett
5. “Invest for the long haul. It's the best way to tame the market's volatility.” -Peter Lynch
6. “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” -Warren Buffett
7. “The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'” -Sir John Templeton
8. “If you can't bear the thought of losing 50% of your portfolio, then you shouldn't be in the stock market.” -Mohnish Pabrai
9. “The most important thing is to understand what you're investing in and why.” -Nick Sleep
10. “Investing is not about being brilliant, it's about being consistent.” -Unknown
#stocks #investing
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 15.37x
•5-Year Mean: 31.06x
•NTM FCF Yield: 10.09%
•5-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~102% MORE in earnings per share & ~98% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $14.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $9.68B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 16.16x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.4%
•2020: 11.5%
•2021: 13.6%
•2022: 12.7%
•2023: 14.8%
•LTM: 15.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.2%
•2020: 22.7%
•2021: 20.0%
•2022: 11.5%
•2023: 20.5%
•LTM: 21.4%
$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $15.45B
•2023: $29.77B
•CAGR: 14.01%
FREE CASH FLOW❌*
•2018: $4.66B
•2023: $4.22B
•Decrease: (9.44%)
*FCF in 2017 was $1.86B, so FCF rose ~150% in 2018 start date (“normalizing” the decline above)
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.42
•2023: $5.10
•CAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.09B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 11.3%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 12.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 16.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~102% MORE in EPS & ~98% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 7.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly below the (7.69%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.12 (-19.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.56 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: $5.00 (9.7% YoY)
$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $5.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
18x P/E: $90.00💵 … ~17.00% CAGR
17x P/E: $85.00💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
16x P/E: $80.00💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >16 earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >18x earnings
The 🔑 isn't a mean reversion in $PYPL's multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption
There’s still a ton of negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in just a few quarters if management continues to make progress towards its goals
I believe they will — however, investors concerned with the “turnaround risks” associated with $PYPL can still benefit by allocating a smaller % to $PYPL
Today at $66💵 $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround risks & competitive risks)
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 15.37x
•5-Year Mean: 31.06x
•NTM FCF Yield: 10.09%
•5-Year Mean: 5.08%
As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~102% MORE in earnings per share & ~98% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $14.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $9.68B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 16.16x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.4%
•2020: 11.5%
•2021: 13.6%
•2022: 12.7%
•2023: 14.8%
•LTM: 15.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.2%
•2020: 22.7%
•2021: 20.0%
•2022: 11.5%
•2023: 20.5%
•LTM: 21.4%
$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $15.45B
•2023: $29.77B
•CAGR: 14.01%
FREE CASH FLOW❌*
•2018: $4.66B
•2023: $4.22B
•Decrease: (9.44%)
*FCF in 2017 was $1.86B, so FCF rose ~150% in 2018 start date (“normalizing” the decline above)
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.42
•2023: $5.10
•CAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.09B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 11.3%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 12.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 16.7%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~102% MORE in EPS & ~98% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 7.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly below the (7.69%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.12 (-19.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.56 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: $5.00 (9.7% YoY)
$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $5.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
18x P/E: $90.00💵 … ~17.00% CAGR
17x P/E: $85.00💵 … ~14.4% CAGR
16x P/E: $80.00💵 … ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >16 earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >18x earnings
The 🔑 isn't a mean reversion in $PYPL's multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption
There’s still a ton of negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in just a few quarters if management continues to make progress towards its goals
I believe they will — however, investors concerned with the “turnaround risks” associated with $PYPL can still benefit by allocating a smaller % to $PYPL
Today at $66💵 $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround risks & competitive risks)
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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