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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โsober valuation analysis ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธโ on $ACN stating:
โAs you can see, weโd have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโs arguably justified given its growth rate)
Today at $306๐ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price
Iโd reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโs price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026โ
Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285๐ต as my research suggested
Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN ๐ฏ
#stocks #investing
_______
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ."
A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.98x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
โข10-Year Mean: 5.20%
As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ACN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M
$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2018: 54.2%
โข2019: 42.1%
โข2020: 30.8%
โข2021: 32.0%
โข2022: 38.2%
โข2023: 33.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2018: 41.2%
โข2019: 37.9%
โข2020: 32.1%
โข2021: 31.9%
โข2022: 32.6%
โข2023: 28.5%
$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $28.56B
โข2023: $64.11B
โขCAGR: 8.42%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $2.93B
โข2023: $8.99B
โขCAGR: 11.86%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $4.21
โข2023: $11.67
โขCAGR: 10.73%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $1.62
โข2023: $4.48
โขCAGR: 10.70%
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:
2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)
$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential a[...]
RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โsober valuation analysis ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธโ on $ACN stating:
โAs you can see, weโd have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโs arguably justified given its growth rate)
Today at $306๐ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price
Iโd reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโs price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026โ
Since then, $ACN dropped ~7% & is currently trading at $285๐ต as my research suggested
Tomorrow I will share an updated analysis on $ACN ๐ฏ
#stocks #investing
_______
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ."
A sober valuation analysis on $ACN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 24.50x
โข10-Year Mean: 23.98x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.42%
โข10-Year Mean: 5.20%
As you can see, $ACN appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in earnings per share & ~4% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ACN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $5.12B
โขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M
$ACN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 174x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2018: 54.2%
โข2019: 42.1%
โข2020: 30.8%
โข2021: 32.0%
โข2022: 38.2%
โข2023: 33.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2018: 41.2%
โข2019: 37.9%
โข2020: 32.1%
โข2021: 31.9%
โข2022: 32.6%
โข2023: 28.5%
$ACN has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $28.56B
โข2023: $64.11B
โขCAGR: 8.42%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $2.93B
โข2023: $8.99B
โขCAGR: 11.86%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $4.21
โข2023: $11.67
โขCAGR: 10.73%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 713.34M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 637.95M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~10.5%, $ACN increased its EPS by ~11.7% (assuming 0 growth)
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $1.62
โข2023: $4.48
โขCAGR: 10.70%
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 32.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 15.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.9%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~2% LESS in EPS & ~4% MORE FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ACN has to grow earnings at a 12.25% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (12.25%) required growth rate:
2024E: $12.17 (4.3% YoY) *FY August
2025E: $13.20 (8.5% YoY)
2026E: $14.83 (12.4% YoY)
$ACN has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $ACN ends 2026 with $14.83 in EPS & see its CAGR potential a[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ RT @DimitryNakhla: ~3 weeks ago I shared my โsober valuation analysis ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธโ on $ACN stating: โAs you can see, weโd have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above itsโฆ
ssuming different multiples
25x P/E: $370.75๐ต โฆ ~10.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $355.92๐ต โฆ ~8.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $341.09๐ต โฆ ~6.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $326.26๐ต โฆ ~4.5% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโs arguably justified given its growth rate)
Today at $306๐ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price
Iโd reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโs price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026
#stocks #investing
Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
tweet
25x P/E: $370.75๐ต โฆ ~10.3% CAGR
24x P/E: $355.92๐ต โฆ ~8.4% CAGR
23x P/E: $341.09๐ต โฆ ~6.5% CAGR
22x P/E: $326.26๐ต โฆ ~4.5% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume >25x earnings for $ACN to have double digit CAGR potential (a multiple slightly above its 10-year average & above whatโs arguably justified given its growth rate)
Today at $306๐ต it appears that $ACN is a wonderful company trading at a fair price
Iโd reconsider $ACN closer to $285๐ต or at ~22.78x forward estimates (~7% below todayโs price) where I can possibly expect near double digit return potential assuming a 23x end multiple in 2026
#stocks #investing
Thank you @WisedelCapital for the request
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.91x
โข10-Year Mean: 24.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.56%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.13%
As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business
*Financials In Euros โฌ*
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: โฌ11.29B
โขLong-Term Debt: โฌ11.33B
$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 18.91x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.6%
โข2020: 10.2%
โข2021: 18.9%
โข2022: 21.2%
โข2023: 21.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.5%
โข2020: 12.8%
โข2021: 28.9%
โข2022: 28.0%
โข2023: 26.7%
$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the companyโs financial efficiency
REVENUESโ
โข2013: โฌ29.02B
โข2023: โฌ86.15B
โขCAGR: 11.49%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: โฌ2.99B
โข2023: โฌ11.59B
โขCAGR: 14.50%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: โฌ6.83
โข2023: โฌ30.33
โขCAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 500.30M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 26.5%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 10.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2025 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (10.95%) the required growth rate:
2024E: โฌ31.56 (4.3% YoY)* Dec
2025E: โฌ35.25 (11.4% YoY)
2026E: โฌ38.15 (8.2% YoY)
So, letโs assume $LVMH ends 2026 with โฌ38.15 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:
23x P/E: โฌ877.45๐ต โฆ ~10.0% CAGR
22x P/E: โฌ839.30๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
21x P/E: โฌ801.15๐ต โฆ ~6.2% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume 23x for $LVMH to have attractive return potential & while 23x is certainly reasonable given its quality, we should be aware that $LVMH 10-Year average multiple (24.92x) is elevated a bit due to the valuation spike in 2020-2021
While $LVMH deserves to trade at a premium multiple due to its quality, Iโm hesitant to rely on 23x because I want to ensure some margin of safety
Itโs safer to rely on ~21x earnings & be pleasantly surprised with some multiple expansion (rather than have the risk of multiple compression)
Iโd prefer to be more patient & wait for a better entry price around โฌ640๐ต (11% below todays price), this way I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a 21x multiple
$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $LVMH ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.91x
โข10-Year Mean: 24.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.56%
โข10-Year Mean: 4.13%
As you can see, $LVMH appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~14% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $LVMH is a high-quality business
*Financials In Euros โฌ*
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: โฌ11.29B
โขLong-Term Debt: โฌ11.33B
$LVMH has a strong balance sheet, reflected by its AA- S&P Credit Rating & 18.91x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 16.6%
โข2020: 10.2%
โข2021: 18.9%
โข2022: 21.2%
โข2023: 21.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 21.5%
โข2020: 12.8%
โข2021: 28.9%
โข2022: 28.0%
โข2023: 26.7%
$LVMH has excellent return metrics, highlighting the companyโs financial efficiency
REVENUESโ
โข2013: โฌ29.02B
โข2023: โฌ86.15B
โขCAGR: 11.49%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: โฌ2.99B
โข2023: โฌ11.59B
โขCAGR: 14.50%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: โฌ6.83
โข2023: โฌ30.33
โขCAGR: 16.07%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 503.22M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 500.30M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 26.5%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 17.6%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~14% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $LVMH has to grow earnings at a 10.95% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2025 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than (10.95%) the required growth rate:
2024E: โฌ31.56 (4.3% YoY)* Dec
2025E: โฌ35.25 (11.4% YoY)
2026E: โฌ38.15 (8.2% YoY)
So, letโs assume $LVMH ends 2026 with โฌ38.15 in EPS & see its CAGR potential (dividends included) assuming different multiples:
23x P/E: โฌ877.45๐ต โฆ ~10.0% CAGR
22x P/E: โฌ839.30๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
21x P/E: โฌ801.15๐ต โฆ ~6.2% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume 23x for $LVMH to have attractive return potential & while 23x is certainly reasonable given its quality, we should be aware that $LVMH 10-Year average multiple (24.92x) is elevated a bit due to the valuation spike in 2020-2021
While $LVMH deserves to trade at a premium multiple due to its quality, Iโm hesitant to rely on 23x because I want to ensure some margin of safety
Itโs safer to rely on ~21x earnings & be pleasantly surprised with some multiple expansion (rather than have the risk of multiple compression)
Iโd prefer to be more patient & wait for a better entry price around โฌ640๐ต (11% below todays price), this way I can reasonably expect ~11% CAGR assuming a 21x multiple
$MC $LVMHF $LVMUY
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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AkhenOsiris
$ORCL
*Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments."
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$ORCL
*Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments."
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL and other software names
Citi CIO Survey:
Microsoft remains the leading generative AI partner that CIOs are considering, significantly ahead of Amazon and Google.
Regarding funding for GenAI projects, 71% of CIOs anticipate securing new or additional funding (up slightly from 70% last quarter), while 29% believe the funding will come from existing resources. Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments.
Organizations are projected to increase their GenAI spending by an average of 13% in the near term. However, it is still "early to identify clear winners," with the median percentage of use cases in the testing phase between 31-40% and in the production phase between 11-20%.
The survey reveals that "46% of respondents have seen GenAI projects negatively impact traditional IT budgets, with back-office and consulting projects as the top affected categories, and the median impact on traditional IT budgets between 7-9%."
Overall, Citi's 2Q CIO survey showed mixed results, with a slight deterioration in the IT budget environment, primarily due to Europe. However, US near-term IT budget growth expectations improved notably to 3% this quarter, up from 2.2% in the March quarter survey, and surpassing the historical average of 2.7%.
Cybersecurity remains the top investment priority for CIOs, followed by Data modernization/GenAI, though its importance has diminished compared to March, Citi noted.
This โmay be a slightly negative read-through for MSFT, ESTC, SNOW, MDB, INFA, CFLT and TDC,โ analysts highlighted.
Digital Transformation Projects also remain a top-three priority but have fallen in importance since March, potentially tied to enterprises refining their generative AI strategies. Robotics/Automation remains the fourth priority - AkhenOsiristweet
AkhenOsiris
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL and other software names
Citi CIO Survey:
Microsoft remains the leading generative AI partner that CIOs are considering, significantly ahead of Amazon and Google.
Regarding funding for GenAI projects, 71% of CIOs anticipate securing new or additional funding (up slightly from 70% last quarter), while 29% believe the funding will come from existing resources. Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments.
Organizations are projected to increase their GenAI spending by an average of 13% in the near term. However, it is still "early to identify clear winners," with the median percentage of use cases in the testing phase between 31-40% and in the production phase between 11-20%.
The survey reveals that "46% of respondents have seen GenAI projects negatively impact traditional IT budgets, with back-office and consulting projects as the top affected categories, and the median impact on traditional IT budgets between 7-9%."
Overall, Citi's 2Q CIO survey showed mixed results, with a slight deterioration in the IT budget environment, primarily due to Europe. However, US near-term IT budget growth expectations improved notably to 3% this quarter, up from 2.2% in the March quarter survey, and surpassing the historical average of 2.7%.
Cybersecurity remains the top investment priority for CIOs, followed by Data modernization/GenAI, though its importance has diminished compared to March, Citi noted.
This โmay be a slightly negative read-through for MSFT, ESTC, SNOW, MDB, INFA, CFLT and TDC,โ analysts highlighted.
Digital Transformation Projects also remain a top-three priority but have fallen in importance since March, potentially tied to enterprises refining their generative AI strategies. Robotics/Automation remains the fourth priority
tweet
$MSFT $AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL and other software names
Citi CIO Survey:
Microsoft remains the leading generative AI partner that CIOs are considering, significantly ahead of Amazon and Google.
Regarding funding for GenAI projects, 71% of CIOs anticipate securing new or additional funding (up slightly from 70% last quarter), while 29% believe the funding will come from existing resources. Some CIOs expect to reduce spending on vendors such as Oracle to allocate more funds to GenAI investments.
Organizations are projected to increase their GenAI spending by an average of 13% in the near term. However, it is still "early to identify clear winners," with the median percentage of use cases in the testing phase between 31-40% and in the production phase between 11-20%.
The survey reveals that "46% of respondents have seen GenAI projects negatively impact traditional IT budgets, with back-office and consulting projects as the top affected categories, and the median impact on traditional IT budgets between 7-9%."
Overall, Citi's 2Q CIO survey showed mixed results, with a slight deterioration in the IT budget environment, primarily due to Europe. However, US near-term IT budget growth expectations improved notably to 3% this quarter, up from 2.2% in the March quarter survey, and surpassing the historical average of 2.7%.
Cybersecurity remains the top investment priority for CIOs, followed by Data modernization/GenAI, though its importance has diminished compared to March, Citi noted.
This โmay be a slightly negative read-through for MSFT, ESTC, SNOW, MDB, INFA, CFLT and TDC,โ analysts highlighted.
Digital Transformation Projects also remain a top-three priority but have fallen in importance since March, potentially tied to enterprises refining their generative AI strategies. Robotics/Automation remains the fourth priority
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT $AMZN
Sell-side CIO Survey Roundup:
Earlier this week Jefferies CIO survey (n=40) found Azure with a "slight preference" over AWS for overall cloud spend.
MS found Microsoft to be biggest beneficiary of GenAI spend "by far" vs Amazon and Google. MS also found public cloud workloads increasing at approx 20% cagr next 2 years.
Today Citi CIO survey finds Microsoft is "significantly ahead of Amazon and Google" for GenAI projects.
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$MSFT $AMZN
Sell-side CIO Survey Roundup:
Earlier this week Jefferies CIO survey (n=40) found Azure with a "slight preference" over AWS for overall cloud spend.
MS found Microsoft to be biggest beneficiary of GenAI spend "by far" vs Amazon and Google. MS also found public cloud workloads increasing at approx 20% cagr next 2 years.
Today Citi CIO survey finds Microsoft is "significantly ahead of Amazon and Google" for GenAI projects.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
many sell-side on this boat @Crussian17
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many sell-side on this boat @Crussian17
While headline PPI was 0.22% m/m, the trade services (i.e. wholesale and retail margins) contributed 0.37% to the number. In other words, m/m PPI would have been firmly negative otherwise. Could hint at some margin expansion during earnings season. - Liz Young Thomastweet