AkhenOsiris
Next time someone asks "why do markets go up 70% of years", the following analysis will explain why
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Next time someone asks "why do markets go up 70% of years", the following analysis will explain why
Cheat sheet for tomorrow:
Hot CPI = economy good = buy AAPL/QQQ
Weak CPI = rates will be cut = long duration = buy AAPL/QQQ
In-line CPI = uncertainty is gone = status quo = buy AAPL/QQQ
Heat death of universe occurs tomorrow and CPI doesn’t matter anymore = buy AAPL/QQQ - Prepared Remarkstweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
8 Quality Stocks That Are Trading At Least -15% Below Their All-Time-Highs 📉
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: 24.11x
•5-Year Avg: 24.64x
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•% Down: -18%
•NTM P/E: 25.14x
•5-Year Avg: 47.52x
🏊🏼♂️ Pool Corp $POOL
•% Down: -49%
•NTM P/E: 27.18x
•5-Year Avg: 28.49x
🚛 Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL
•% Down: -20%
•NTM P/E: 30.44x
•5-Year Avg: 29.02
👜 Louis Vuitton $LVMH $MC
•% Down: -22%
•NTM P/E: 21.49x
•5-Year Avg: 27.22x
📈 MSCI Inc $MSCI
•% Down: -27%
•NTM P/E: 32.48x
•5-Year Avg: 42.92x
🥤 Pepsi $PEP
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: -19.74%
•5-Year Avg: 21.39x
📐 Graco $GGG
•% Down: -17%
•NTM P/E: 25.42x
•5-Year Avg: 27.62x
#stocks #investing
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8 Quality Stocks That Are Trading At Least -15% Below Their All-Time-Highs 📉
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: 24.11x
•5-Year Avg: 24.64x
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•% Down: -18%
•NTM P/E: 25.14x
•5-Year Avg: 47.52x
🏊🏼♂️ Pool Corp $POOL
•% Down: -49%
•NTM P/E: 27.18x
•5-Year Avg: 28.49x
🚛 Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL
•% Down: -20%
•NTM P/E: 30.44x
•5-Year Avg: 29.02
👜 Louis Vuitton $LVMH $MC
•% Down: -22%
•NTM P/E: 21.49x
•5-Year Avg: 27.22x
📈 MSCI Inc $MSCI
•% Down: -27%
•NTM P/E: 32.48x
•5-Year Avg: 42.92x
🥤 Pepsi $PEP
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: -19.74%
•5-Year Avg: 21.39x
📐 Graco $GGG
•% Down: -17%
•NTM P/E: 25.42x
•5-Year Avg: 27.62x
#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
$AMD
Roth MKM reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target from $180 to $200, saying its recent acquisition of Silo AI should improve the chipmaker’s competitive position.
“We believe AMD’s recent AI software acquisition and the multiple additional acquisitions that came previously can drive increasing adoption of opensource AI software tools and help close the gap with leading proprietary AI frameworks,” analysts at Roth MKM said in a note.
“We believe AMD’s improving software position will drive increasing traction for the company’s Instinct AI processor family,” they added.
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$AMD
Roth MKM reiterated a Buy rating and raised its price target from $180 to $200, saying its recent acquisition of Silo AI should improve the chipmaker’s competitive position.
“We believe AMD’s recent AI software acquisition and the multiple additional acquisitions that came previously can drive increasing adoption of opensource AI software tools and help close the gap with leading proprietary AI frameworks,” analysts at Roth MKM said in a note.
“We believe AMD’s improving software position will drive increasing traction for the company’s Instinct AI processor family,” they added.
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Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: One of the actively discussed takes this morning:
Goldman says, concern is growing among investors that data center companies have overinvested in AI $NVDA
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RT @trader_53: One of the actively discussed takes this morning:
Goldman says, concern is growing among investors that data center companies have overinvested in AI $NVDA
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AkhenOsiris
$CART Initiated Sector Weight
KeyBanc initiated coverage of Instacart with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. Instacart has established itself as a leader in the grocery delivery space, but category growth is undergoing a transition, which could temper revenue growth over the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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$CART Initiated Sector Weight
KeyBanc initiated coverage of Instacart with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. Instacart has established itself as a leader in the grocery delivery space, but category growth is undergoing a transition, which could temper revenue growth over the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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AkhenOsiris
Do we trust analysts who go with "no price target"?
Takeaway is the name is volatile?
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Do we trust analysts who go with "no price target"?
Takeaway is the name is volatile?
$CART Initiated Sector Weight
KeyBanc initiated coverage of Instacart with a Sector Weight rating and no price target. Instacart has established itself as a leader in the grocery delivery space, but category growth is undergoing a transition, which could temper revenue growth over the medium term, the analyst tells investors in a research note. - AkhenOsiristweet
AkhenOsiris
$AMZN
Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.
Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyer’s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.
Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.
"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.
Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.
Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages.
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$AMZN
Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.
Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyer’s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.
Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.
"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.
Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.
Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages.
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AkhenOsiris
"TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels"
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"TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels"
$AMZN
Piper Sandler analysts said its ad buyer checks were once again constructive, exceeding expectations for the sixth consecutive quarter after a series of misses during the period from Q1 2022 to Q4 2022.
Digital spend in 1Q was up 8.4% year-over-year, approximately 70 basis points above ad buyer’s expectation at the end of the quarter. Although 2Q outperformance was lower than 1Q's 290 basis points, it still surpassed 4Q's 40 basis points.
Looking into 2024, Piper Sandler said ad buyer forecasts about 8.4% digital growth for the fiscal year, down approximately 110 basis points from their March estimate. Analysts also noted a slightly weaker economy compared to three months ago.
"While key debates like student loans repayment and high rates have been better, certain verticals have struggled to recover (auto, financials) and the election creates some uncertainty," the note states.
Amazon, Snapchat, and Pinterest all outperformed 2Q24 estimates by over 300 basis points, while TikTok's growth fell well below previous levels.
Amazon has achieved an "incredible" level of data utilization through its Amazon Media Cloud (AMC), with even Google and Meta contributing anonymized data due to the advantages. - AkhenOsiristweet
Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
WHERE IS ADAM JONAS
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WHERE IS ADAM JONAS
Another episode of Overpromise / underdeliver. On the day of Musk‘s 8/8 announcment no one at Tesla knew they had something to reveal and it is pretty clear that they still have nothing.
Yet another red flag added to the collection. On what foundation the massive stock run now rests remains totally unclear.
$TSLA - Trader 53tweet
Offshore
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AkhenOsiris
Today I realized I once bought SKLZ at a split-adjusted price of $180 😂😂😂
Trades at $6 today...sounds preposterous until you see the high was ~$875 😂😂😂
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Today I realized I once bought SKLZ at a split-adjusted price of $180 😂😂😂
Trades at $6 today...sounds preposterous until you see the high was ~$875 😂😂😂
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: 7 Quality Stocks With >10% CAGR Potential Assuming Lower Multiple & 2026 EPS Est 💵
💳 Visa $V
•10-Year Avg P/E: 28.10x
•2026E Earnings: $12.68
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.2% ✅
💸 Mastercard $MA
•10-Year Avg P/E: 31.28x
•2026E Earnings: $19.34
•CAGR Potential w 30x — 11.8% ✅
📦 Amazon $AMZN (P/FCF Used)
•10-Year Avg P/FCF: 37.79x
•2026E FCF: $102.26B
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.0% ✅
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•5-Year Avg P/E: 47.63
•2026E Earnings: $11.01
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 10.4% ✅
🩻 UnitedHealth $UNH
•10-Year Avg P/E: 18.64x
•2026E Earnings: $34.97
•CAGR Potential w 18x — 11.5% ✅
🧾 Automatic Data $ADP
•10-Year Avg P/E: 27.28x
•2026E Earnings: $10.85
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 11.5% ✅
📈 FactSet Research $FDS
•10-Year Avg P/E: 26.05x
•2026E Earnings: $19.35
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 10.2% ✅
#stocks #investing
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RT @DimitryNakhla: 7 Quality Stocks With >10% CAGR Potential Assuming Lower Multiple & 2026 EPS Est 💵
💳 Visa $V
•10-Year Avg P/E: 28.10x
•2026E Earnings: $12.68
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.2% ✅
💸 Mastercard $MA
•10-Year Avg P/E: 31.28x
•2026E Earnings: $19.34
•CAGR Potential w 30x — 11.8% ✅
📦 Amazon $AMZN (P/FCF Used)
•10-Year Avg P/FCF: 37.79x
•2026E FCF: $102.26B
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 12.0% ✅
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•5-Year Avg P/E: 47.63
•2026E Earnings: $11.01
•CAGR Potential w 27x — 10.4% ✅
🩻 UnitedHealth $UNH
•10-Year Avg P/E: 18.64x
•2026E Earnings: $34.97
•CAGR Potential w 18x — 11.5% ✅
🧾 Automatic Data $ADP
•10-Year Avg P/E: 27.28x
•2026E Earnings: $10.85
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 11.5% ✅
📈 FactSet Research $FDS
•10-Year Avg P/E: 26.05x
•2026E Earnings: $19.35
•CAGR Potential w 26x — 10.2% ✅
#stocks #investing
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AkhenOsiris
Terrible setups because up so much
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Terrible setups because up so much
Today can be filed under “be careful what you wish for.” CPI was down 0.1% from May & was the first decline since May 2020 which is certainly good news. While Fed cut hopes rose, investor complacency in all things AI related was reflected in the violent rotation within the market. This is best illustrated by $NVDA down -5.6%. Additionally, the Magnificent7/Nasdaq fell (-4.0%/-2.0%) while the Russell 2000 rose (+3.6%).
Looking forward into tech earnings season which starts in earnest next week, with mega cap starting the week after, I continue to believe there is a rising mismatch between the amount of capex spent on AI and the resulting revenues being generated. I believe today is a warning sign of what could occur if there are any disappointments among the Mag7 due to ROI (return on investment) concerns.
During Q1 earnings season, the Mag7 were on average +4% the day after reporting with only $META down the next day. The group surged another 20% the day after reporting earnings to the close today on 7/11 for a total year-to-date gain of 43%. This upcoming Q2 earnings season could be very different than Q1.
$AAPL is my favorite of the Mag7 given its poor revenue performance over the past three years and likelihood finally for a multi-year iPhone upgrade cycle driven by AI.
$META is likely to benefit from upcoming election & Olympics spend. Having said that, they did guide below expectations for Q2 revenue when they reported in Q1 and the stock was hit for 11% the next day.
$MSFT scares me due to my increasing concerns over a potential mismatch in AI investment in Azure versus revenues, despite their relationship with OpenAI (the maker of ChatGPT).
$GOOGL has this mismatch risk as well in Google Cloud but I hope the election and Olympics spend can offset this risk in the second half of the year.
$AMZN also has this mismatch risk in Amazon Web Services, but I believe their total company margin expansion driven by e-commerce & advertising revenue growth will continue.
$TSLA reported an upside surprise to deliveries for the first time in a while, but I just cannot get comfortable with their valuation or the heavy price competition in the EV market right now.
$NVDA is deservedly the poster child for the AI trade. But any issues at any of the big hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft & Google) that report before them is likely to matter more than their own results at least till they report in late August.
In summary, my plan is to be very conservative in my positioning the day the members of the Mag7 report while looking to add to my positions on corrections. As I have written about before, while in the near-term I am concerned about an AI digestion period, I believe the ultimate peak is still several years in the future. - Dan Nilestweet