AkhenOsiris
Keybanc on Semis/$NVDA
Traditional server demand is witnessing a meaningful recovery, particularly driven by major U.S. cloud providers like Meta and Microsoft as well as sustained demand from Chinese cloud service providers “and moderately improving demand within Enterprise."
“For 2024, we’re increasing our total server shipment estimates to +7% vs. +4% prior, with Enterprise +5% and Cloud +8%,"
“We continue to expect AI servers to grow 150% to ~450K in 2024”
In terms of Nvidia’s GB200, KeyBanc believes that most of the demand in 2025 will be for the NVL72 configuration rather than the NVL36. The firm notes that the NVL72's performance is 20-30 times greater than the H100 and offers the lowest cost per token solution available. As a result, they expect GB200 to generate over $200 billion in data center revenues for Nvidia in 2025.
NVDA price target rsised from $130 to $180.
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Keybanc on Semis/$NVDA
Traditional server demand is witnessing a meaningful recovery, particularly driven by major U.S. cloud providers like Meta and Microsoft as well as sustained demand from Chinese cloud service providers “and moderately improving demand within Enterprise."
“For 2024, we’re increasing our total server shipment estimates to +7% vs. +4% prior, with Enterprise +5% and Cloud +8%,"
“We continue to expect AI servers to grow 150% to ~450K in 2024”
In terms of Nvidia’s GB200, KeyBanc believes that most of the demand in 2025 will be for the NVL72 configuration rather than the NVL36. The firm notes that the NVL72's performance is 20-30 times greater than the H100 and offers the lowest cost per token solution available. As a result, they expect GB200 to generate over $200 billion in data center revenues for Nvidia in 2025.
NVDA price target rsised from $130 to $180.
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT $AMZN
Jefferies cloud spend survey:
Survey of 40 U.S. CIOs reveals a growing focus on cloud adoption and a slight preference for Azure.
A "big jump in spend intentions" is a key takeaway, according to Jefferies. Significantly more CIOs (43%) expect cloud spending to increase by over 10% in 2024 compared to 2023 (28%).
This trend aligns with a decisive shift towards cloud workloads. The survey found that 58% of CIOs anticipate having more than half of their workloads in the cloud by the end of 2025, up from 36% currently.
Jefferies highlights a potential driver for this growth: Artificial Intelligence (AI). "AI is a material driver of increased cloud spend," the firm states, with 54% of respondents citing AI initiatives as a major reason for their rising cloud expenditures.
The survey results also suggest a shift in cloud provider preference. While both AWS and Azure remain dominant, Microsoft's offering appears to be gaining traction.
Jefferies reports, "MSFT Azure edged out AMZN AWS in this period's survey sample." Currently, 45% of respondents identify Azure as their primary cloud provider, compared to 43% for AWS.
This marks a reversal from Jefferies' December 2023 survey, where AWS held the lead.
Looking ahead, Jefferies says spending intentions favor Azure slightly, with cloud spend intentions slightly higher for Azure than AWS.
While acknowledging the ongoing importance of cost optimization, Jefferies views the survey results positively for cloud vendors as it "indicates that the bulk of revenue headwinds to Cloud vendors may be behind."
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$MSFT $AMZN
Jefferies cloud spend survey:
Survey of 40 U.S. CIOs reveals a growing focus on cloud adoption and a slight preference for Azure.
A "big jump in spend intentions" is a key takeaway, according to Jefferies. Significantly more CIOs (43%) expect cloud spending to increase by over 10% in 2024 compared to 2023 (28%).
This trend aligns with a decisive shift towards cloud workloads. The survey found that 58% of CIOs anticipate having more than half of their workloads in the cloud by the end of 2025, up from 36% currently.
Jefferies highlights a potential driver for this growth: Artificial Intelligence (AI). "AI is a material driver of increased cloud spend," the firm states, with 54% of respondents citing AI initiatives as a major reason for their rising cloud expenditures.
The survey results also suggest a shift in cloud provider preference. While both AWS and Azure remain dominant, Microsoft's offering appears to be gaining traction.
Jefferies reports, "MSFT Azure edged out AMZN AWS in this period's survey sample." Currently, 45% of respondents identify Azure as their primary cloud provider, compared to 43% for AWS.
This marks a reversal from Jefferies' December 2023 survey, where AWS held the lead.
Looking ahead, Jefferies says spending intentions favor Azure slightly, with cloud spend intentions slightly higher for Azure than AWS.
While acknowledging the ongoing importance of cost optimization, Jefferies views the survey results positively for cloud vendors as it "indicates that the bulk of revenue headwinds to Cloud vendors may be behind."
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$BMY currently trades for a 17.32% FCF Yield, doubling its 10-year average FCF Yield of 8.46%
Is $BMY a value trap or is it undervalued?
I will share my thoughts on $BMY once the poll is complete 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
- Value Trap 📉
- Undervalued 📈
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$BMY currently trades for a 17.32% FCF Yield, doubling its 10-year average FCF Yield of 8.46%
Is $BMY a value trap or is it undervalued?
I will share my thoughts on $BMY once the poll is complete 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
- Value Trap 📉
- Undervalued 📈
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Monster Beverage $MNST has posted ANNUAL sales GROWTH since 2003 💸
#stocks #investing https://t.co/1Is08tdXmM
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Monster Beverage $MNST has posted ANNUAL sales GROWTH since 2003 💸
#stocks #investing https://t.co/1Is08tdXmM
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey.
Yesterday I shared a poll asking if you thought $BMY was undervalued or a value trap, given its 17.32% FCF Yield.
Before I share my opinion, I believe it’s CRITICAL to emphasize the importance of being selective when building a portfolio.
Imagine you were the manager of a fútbol club (in this case Liverpool FC 😉) and you have to choose your Starting XI.
Would you add $BMY? .. More on this later.
You can see my Starting XI in the photo below.
It’s a club of exceptional businesses that have wide moats, pristine balance sheets, excellent returns on invested capital and quality revenues & earnings.
$BMY on the other hand doesn’t really fit in this club as it fails to meet these standards.
Another way to demonstrate this is if you were building a fútbol club & you could choose ANY footballer, I’m sure your club may look something like this:
Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, Alison Becker, Virgil Van Dyke, David Alaba, Kyle Walker, Trent Alexander Arnold, & Ilkay Gundogan.
INVESTING IS NO DIFFERENT.
You have the opportunity to build a SUPERTEAM of quality businesses & nobody is forcing you to buy “subpar players” for your club.
As Warren Buffett even said:
“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime.”
The mistake MANY investors make is NOT being SELECTIVE enough.
Why add a subpar player to your squad when you could buy Ronaldo?
You’ll become a better investor and enhance your financial welfare by focusing on buying the world’s BEST & MOST QUALITY business when they trade at a fair or better valuation. This should be your focus.
Do not let the daily noise of the market sway you into buying a subpar company just because it trades for a low multiple.
So this brings us to $BMY.
Although $BMY may “appear” undervalued due to its low multiple & high FCF Yield, it could be a value trap and does not belong in my “superteam” of companies.
In short, it lacks many of the qualities I mentioned for the other businesses & has a poor history of performance.
Just have a look at the long-term growth of $BMY Revenues, EPS, & Balance Sheet and you’ll be very unimpressed.
Sure, $BMY may “have moments of excellence” (as any footballer may have in the occasional game) with nice rallies off its lows, but this doesn’t make $BMY a consistent performer for my club.
Yes, it’s important to consider the future when investing (which isn’t even bright for $BMY at the moment). However, it doesn’t mean we should forget about the poor performances $BMY has had over the last 15 years.
I wouldn’t want to count on a player who’s been performing poorly over 15 seasons and hope that this player will finally show me moments of consistent brilliance for the next 5 seasons.
Also, we should to be wise and consider the opportunity cost of owning subpar businesses over excellent businesses over the years.
I am sure there are many investors who have owned $BMY for the last ~5 years in hopes that $BMY would eventually see it supposed “value” realized.
Meanwhile, the same investors would have been better off, owning more shares of companies like $V $MA $GOOG $META $ASML $LRCX $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $VRTX $TMO $AAPL etc.
This was my Achilles Heel when I first started my investment journey in 2016. I was TOO focused on valuation & lower multiples rather than QUALITY & growth at a reasonable price.
So when you’re building your club[...]
Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey.
Yesterday I shared a poll asking if you thought $BMY was undervalued or a value trap, given its 17.32% FCF Yield.
Before I share my opinion, I believe it’s CRITICAL to emphasize the importance of being selective when building a portfolio.
Imagine you were the manager of a fútbol club (in this case Liverpool FC 😉) and you have to choose your Starting XI.
Would you add $BMY? .. More on this later.
You can see my Starting XI in the photo below.
It’s a club of exceptional businesses that have wide moats, pristine balance sheets, excellent returns on invested capital and quality revenues & earnings.
$BMY on the other hand doesn’t really fit in this club as it fails to meet these standards.
Another way to demonstrate this is if you were building a fútbol club & you could choose ANY footballer, I’m sure your club may look something like this:
Cristiano Ronaldo, Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham, Alison Becker, Virgil Van Dyke, David Alaba, Kyle Walker, Trent Alexander Arnold, & Ilkay Gundogan.
INVESTING IS NO DIFFERENT.
You have the opportunity to build a SUPERTEAM of quality businesses & nobody is forcing you to buy “subpar players” for your club.
As Warren Buffett even said:
“I could improve your ultimate financial welfare by giving you a ticket with only 20 slots in it so that you had 20 punches—representing all the investments that you got to make in a lifetime.”
The mistake MANY investors make is NOT being SELECTIVE enough.
Why add a subpar player to your squad when you could buy Ronaldo?
You’ll become a better investor and enhance your financial welfare by focusing on buying the world’s BEST & MOST QUALITY business when they trade at a fair or better valuation. This should be your focus.
Do not let the daily noise of the market sway you into buying a subpar company just because it trades for a low multiple.
So this brings us to $BMY.
Although $BMY may “appear” undervalued due to its low multiple & high FCF Yield, it could be a value trap and does not belong in my “superteam” of companies.
In short, it lacks many of the qualities I mentioned for the other businesses & has a poor history of performance.
Just have a look at the long-term growth of $BMY Revenues, EPS, & Balance Sheet and you’ll be very unimpressed.
Sure, $BMY may “have moments of excellence” (as any footballer may have in the occasional game) with nice rallies off its lows, but this doesn’t make $BMY a consistent performer for my club.
Yes, it’s important to consider the future when investing (which isn’t even bright for $BMY at the moment). However, it doesn’t mean we should forget about the poor performances $BMY has had over the last 15 years.
I wouldn’t want to count on a player who’s been performing poorly over 15 seasons and hope that this player will finally show me moments of consistent brilliance for the next 5 seasons.
Also, we should to be wise and consider the opportunity cost of owning subpar businesses over excellent businesses over the years.
I am sure there are many investors who have owned $BMY for the last ~5 years in hopes that $BMY would eventually see it supposed “value” realized.
Meanwhile, the same investors would have been better off, owning more shares of companies like $V $MA $GOOG $META $ASML $LRCX $NVDA $MSFT $CRM $VRTX $TMO $AAPL etc.
This was my Achilles Heel when I first started my investment journey in 2016. I was TOO focused on valuation & lower multiples rather than QUALITY & growth at a reasonable price.
So when you’re building your club[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® Attention investors ‼️ — I am SURE this post will sharpen your investing mindset and skills. Take a couple minutes to read it in full - it'll be a game-changer for your investment journey. Yesterday I shared a poll asking…
of equities, don’t buy a bench player in place of Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. You’d just be downgrading your team & winning less.
If you made it this far, hope this helped!
Feel free to share your starting XI 😉
#stocks #investing"
$BMY currently trades for a 17.32% FCF Yield, doubling its 10-year average FCF Yield of 8.46%
Is $BMY a value trap or is it undervalued?
I will share my thoughts on $BMY once the poll is complete 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
- Value Trap 📉
- Undervalued 📈 "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet
If you made it this far, hope this helped!
Feel free to share your starting XI 😉
#stocks #investing"
$BMY currently trades for a 17.32% FCF Yield, doubling its 10-year average FCF Yield of 8.46%
Is $BMY a value trap or is it undervalued?
I will share my thoughts on $BMY once the poll is complete 👇🏽
#stocks #investing
- Value Trap 📉
- Undervalued 📈 "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Did you know Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL is more than just a trucking company?
They're also a REAL ESTATE powerhouse, owning vast land parcels across the country, so as a long-term shareholder of $ODFL you benefit from the value of the land (inflation hedge) & competitive advantage emanating from land ownership, among other things.
And here's the thing: land assets are typically valued on a balance sheet at original purchase price, not current market value as this is an objective amount that can easily be audited, whereas market value is subjective and may be difficult to determine.
___
#stocks #investing #logistics #RealEstate
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RT @DimitryNakhla: Did you know Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL is more than just a trucking company?
They're also a REAL ESTATE powerhouse, owning vast land parcels across the country, so as a long-term shareholder of $ODFL you benefit from the value of the land (inflation hedge) & competitive advantage emanating from land ownership, among other things.
And here's the thing: land assets are typically valued on a balance sheet at original purchase price, not current market value as this is an objective amount that can easily be audited, whereas market value is subjective and may be difficult to determine.
___
#stocks #investing #logistics #RealEstate
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AkhenOsiris
Y'all ready? 😂
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Y'all ready? 😂
The next 2 weeks will be a flood of commentary on how the setup for megacap earnings are "terrible, awful".
That means they are up a lot since last earnings. I will sacrifice a "terrible" setup for that. - AkhenOsiristweet
AkhenOsiris
Next time someone asks "why do markets go up 70% of years", the following analysis will explain why
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Next time someone asks "why do markets go up 70% of years", the following analysis will explain why
Cheat sheet for tomorrow:
Hot CPI = economy good = buy AAPL/QQQ
Weak CPI = rates will be cut = long duration = buy AAPL/QQQ
In-line CPI = uncertainty is gone = status quo = buy AAPL/QQQ
Heat death of universe occurs tomorrow and CPI doesn’t matter anymore = buy AAPL/QQQ - Prepared Remarkstweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
8 Quality Stocks That Are Trading At Least -15% Below Their All-Time-Highs 📉
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: 24.11x
•5-Year Avg: 24.64x
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•% Down: -18%
•NTM P/E: 25.14x
•5-Year Avg: 47.52x
🏊🏼♂️ Pool Corp $POOL
•% Down: -49%
•NTM P/E: 27.18x
•5-Year Avg: 28.49x
🚛 Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL
•% Down: -20%
•NTM P/E: 30.44x
•5-Year Avg: 29.02
👜 Louis Vuitton $LVMH $MC
•% Down: -22%
•NTM P/E: 21.49x
•5-Year Avg: 27.22x
📈 MSCI Inc $MSCI
•% Down: -27%
•NTM P/E: 32.48x
•5-Year Avg: 42.92x
🥤 Pepsi $PEP
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: -19.74%
•5-Year Avg: 21.39x
📐 Graco $GGG
•% Down: -17%
•NTM P/E: 25.42x
•5-Year Avg: 27.62x
#stocks #investing
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8 Quality Stocks That Are Trading At Least -15% Below Their All-Time-Highs 📉
🧬 Thermo Fisher Scientific $TMO
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: 24.11x
•5-Year Avg: 24.64x
📊 Salesforce $CRM
•% Down: -18%
•NTM P/E: 25.14x
•5-Year Avg: 47.52x
🏊🏼♂️ Pool Corp $POOL
•% Down: -49%
•NTM P/E: 27.18x
•5-Year Avg: 28.49x
🚛 Old Dominion Freight Lines $ODFL
•% Down: -20%
•NTM P/E: 30.44x
•5-Year Avg: 29.02
👜 Louis Vuitton $LVMH $MC
•% Down: -22%
•NTM P/E: 21.49x
•5-Year Avg: 27.22x
📈 MSCI Inc $MSCI
•% Down: -27%
•NTM P/E: 32.48x
•5-Year Avg: 42.92x
🥤 Pepsi $PEP
•% Down: -21%
•NTM P/E: -19.74%
•5-Year Avg: 21.39x
📐 Graco $GGG
•% Down: -17%
•NTM P/E: 25.42x
•5-Year Avg: 27.62x
#stocks #investing
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