The Long Investor
Why is long term investing so hard for many to do?
1. When there is a 50-61% retracement, this is difficult for any investor to handle, even professionals struggle with this, it is difficult to see beyond the decline and see it as an opportunity
2. It does not trigger our dopamine responses the same way short term gains can give us quick hit
3. It’s slow, boring and the opposite of the life the Wolf of Wall Street promised
4. People struggle to see beyond a 3 month date range, humans are natural short term thinkers.
5. People see the lives of some on social media and they want that immediately, you will never see the sweat and sacrifice that it takes to get to that stage first.
The path to true wealth from investing is found by focusing on Long Term.
$SPY $QQQ
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Why is long term investing so hard for many to do?
1. When there is a 50-61% retracement, this is difficult for any investor to handle, even professionals struggle with this, it is difficult to see beyond the decline and see it as an opportunity
2. It does not trigger our dopamine responses the same way short term gains can give us quick hit
3. It’s slow, boring and the opposite of the life the Wolf of Wall Street promised
4. People struggle to see beyond a 3 month date range, humans are natural short term thinkers.
5. People see the lives of some on social media and they want that immediately, you will never see the sweat and sacrifice that it takes to get to that stage first.
The path to true wealth from investing is found by focusing on Long Term.
$SPY $QQQ
tweet
Offshore
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The Long Investor
$ABNB’s margins continue to be impressive
ROE: 74%
Profit Margin: 48%
PE: 19
But I think they can improve their TAM:
- you can rent someone’s house, why not have the ability to rent their car too?
- loyalty program similar to that of $BKNG
- Free Cancelation Option
@bchesky https://t.co/Qlrs6mvHa2
tweet
$ABNB’s margins continue to be impressive
ROE: 74%
Profit Margin: 48%
PE: 19
But I think they can improve their TAM:
- you can rent someone’s house, why not have the ability to rent their car too?
- loyalty program similar to that of $BKNG
- Free Cancelation Option
@bchesky https://t.co/Qlrs6mvHa2
tweet
Offshore
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Daniel
Emotional Agility is a very underrated book that I believe every investor should read.
It's about gaining control of our minds and decisions by handling emotional impulses.
Here are my 8 Key Takeaways:
1. Negative Emotion -> Irrational Narratives
Most of our irrational narratives are based on negative emotions that we process by creating stories to understand and cope with what happened.
These irrational stories cloud our judgment and prevent us from making the right decisions.
2. Emotions are on Top
We are evolutionarily wired to prioritize emotions and believe them almost unconditionally.
This is linked to the concept of real and constructed danger...
3. Real and Constructed Danger
We can't differentiate between a real physical danger and an actually harmless scenario (our portfolio going down).
Our body's reaction is the same: We feel a negative emotion and turn off our rational mind. We can prevent this by taking a step back when we realize emotion is getting the better of us.
It sounds silly, but taking a small breather can change our entire emotional reaction.
4. The Positive and Negative Side of Narratives
Narratives often don't reflect the objective reality. While this sounds bad at first, it's actually very helpful for our overall well-being.
However, as investors, we should limit positive (or negative) narratives to our private lives. They can't influence our opinions of companies, managers, etc.
5. Ignoring Emotions
By ignoring emotions, you miss out on the benefit of understanding them.
Knowing why you feel as you do helps with finding a solution.
If you can barely sleep thinking about your portfolio? You should probably rethink the strategy...
6. Thinking is not Solving
Thinking about an emotion over and over again is not the same as solving it.
Solving is about drawing consequences and creating systems to overcome quick judgment.
7. Four Steps to Emotional Agility
Step 1: Label Your Emotions
Write them down. Be honest and specific.
Step 2: Accept Your Emotions
Think about your emotions as if it's a good friend telling you about his. You'd understand.
Step 3: View Your Emotions Objectively
Extract from your emotion and look at the situation isolated. Is your initial reaction justified?
Journaling helps to dissect and learn from past experiences. (For Kahneman, an investment journal is the key for every investor).
Step 4: Choose Your Values
What are your guiding principles? What person do you want to be? How would that person act and decide?
In an investing framework: What's your investing philosophy? How do I structure my investing process as rationally as possible? What would Buffett do? (just a joke, or is it... 😉 )
8. Routines
Use routines to stay on track and prevent falling back into old, bad habits
The more routines you have the less time for your brain to wander to unhealthy places.
tweet
Emotional Agility is a very underrated book that I believe every investor should read.
It's about gaining control of our minds and decisions by handling emotional impulses.
Here are my 8 Key Takeaways:
1. Negative Emotion -> Irrational Narratives
Most of our irrational narratives are based on negative emotions that we process by creating stories to understand and cope with what happened.
These irrational stories cloud our judgment and prevent us from making the right decisions.
2. Emotions are on Top
We are evolutionarily wired to prioritize emotions and believe them almost unconditionally.
This is linked to the concept of real and constructed danger...
3. Real and Constructed Danger
We can't differentiate between a real physical danger and an actually harmless scenario (our portfolio going down).
Our body's reaction is the same: We feel a negative emotion and turn off our rational mind. We can prevent this by taking a step back when we realize emotion is getting the better of us.
It sounds silly, but taking a small breather can change our entire emotional reaction.
4. The Positive and Negative Side of Narratives
Narratives often don't reflect the objective reality. While this sounds bad at first, it's actually very helpful for our overall well-being.
However, as investors, we should limit positive (or negative) narratives to our private lives. They can't influence our opinions of companies, managers, etc.
5. Ignoring Emotions
By ignoring emotions, you miss out on the benefit of understanding them.
Knowing why you feel as you do helps with finding a solution.
If you can barely sleep thinking about your portfolio? You should probably rethink the strategy...
6. Thinking is not Solving
Thinking about an emotion over and over again is not the same as solving it.
Solving is about drawing consequences and creating systems to overcome quick judgment.
7. Four Steps to Emotional Agility
Step 1: Label Your Emotions
Write them down. Be honest and specific.
Step 2: Accept Your Emotions
Think about your emotions as if it's a good friend telling you about his. You'd understand.
Step 3: View Your Emotions Objectively
Extract from your emotion and look at the situation isolated. Is your initial reaction justified?
Journaling helps to dissect and learn from past experiences. (For Kahneman, an investment journal is the key for every investor).
Step 4: Choose Your Values
What are your guiding principles? What person do you want to be? How would that person act and decide?
In an investing framework: What's your investing philosophy? How do I structure my investing process as rationally as possible? What would Buffett do? (just a joke, or is it... 😉 )
8. Routines
Use routines to stay on track and prevent falling back into old, bad habits
The more routines you have the less time for your brain to wander to unhealthy places.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
Silver attempting the breakout at $30 again
Up 26% since the 1st of March.
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Silver attempting the breakout at $30 again
Up 26% since the 1st of March.
SILVER
A break above $30 and this gets very interesting.
$42 is the target then. https://t.co/E2YzGYX1KR tweet
Antonio Linares
Some reflections on the overall performance of my portfolio:
1. $TSLA: despite the heavy declines recently, my position is up 10X since 2016. So long as $TSLA continues to compound faster than anyone else on the manufacturing, energy and AI curves combined I will continue to hold.
2. $AMD: also despite the latest decline from the $210 area, my position is up 36X since 2014. I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but I am pleased to finally see $AMD's Edge AI business begin to rear its head. This business is a blue ocean / trillion $ opportunity for $AMD.
3. $SPOT: the position is up ~3X to date. I am happy to see the company shifting its focus towards efficiency and profitability and I believe this will send the company's FCF/share levels much higher over the next year or two. Inevitably, $SPOT will have to go back to focusing on growth, but over a long holding period we will see many shifts from growth to profitability and back. $SPOT is getting close to returning my entire portfolio at this point.
4. $PLTR: the position is up ~2X to date. Again, I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but it is clear to me that unit economics are improving as $PLTR continues to rapidly productize Foundry. Fast forward a year or two, the focus on productization should see $PLTR's FCF/share levels increase meaningfully, leaving the company at the doorstep of becoming a platform.
5. $HIMS: I'm glad I moved the money from my two mistakes ( $BB, $GPRO) into this company. The position is actually down ~13% from my point of entry, but having reviewed Q1 I am very impressed with the level of execution of this company. They continue to reinvest more and more capital into the business, as they effectively sole a growing volume of acute customer pains in a way that is increasingly harder to imitate, at scale. At present I believe the stock is considerably undervalued, due to the fact that the market still believes $HIMS is not a very defensible business.
$AMZN CEO Andy Jassy's comments about the pharmacy business in Q4 2023 suggest otherwise. I think the market is wrong here:
"[…] if you think about what we do on the retail side, adding a pharmacy capability is a pretty natural extension. It's something that customers had asked us for many years, and it's got more complexity to it than the rest of our retail business."
In aggregate, the investments that I've made since 2020 have performed very well, especially as I made the $PLTR and $SPOT positions larger during the past few years, which were filled with pessimism. This is despite the losses in $GPRO and $BB, which were not negligeable as were the losses from $AMRS, but nonetheless small enough in hindsight.
I believe this is just the beginning for all the companies mentioned above and so I expect the portfolio to perform very well over the coming 5 years. There's no telling what the stocks will do, but I believe the FCF/share levels of the mentioned companies will trend up and to the right, with the stocks eventually following suit.
tweet
Some reflections on the overall performance of my portfolio:
1. $TSLA: despite the heavy declines recently, my position is up 10X since 2016. So long as $TSLA continues to compound faster than anyone else on the manufacturing, energy and AI curves combined I will continue to hold.
2. $AMD: also despite the latest decline from the $210 area, my position is up 36X since 2014. I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but I am pleased to finally see $AMD's Edge AI business begin to rear its head. This business is a blue ocean / trillion $ opportunity for $AMD.
3. $SPOT: the position is up ~3X to date. I am happy to see the company shifting its focus towards efficiency and profitability and I believe this will send the company's FCF/share levels much higher over the next year or two. Inevitably, $SPOT will have to go back to focusing on growth, but over a long holding period we will see many shifts from growth to profitability and back. $SPOT is getting close to returning my entire portfolio at this point.
4. $PLTR: the position is up ~2X to date. Again, I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but it is clear to me that unit economics are improving as $PLTR continues to rapidly productize Foundry. Fast forward a year or two, the focus on productization should see $PLTR's FCF/share levels increase meaningfully, leaving the company at the doorstep of becoming a platform.
5. $HIMS: I'm glad I moved the money from my two mistakes ( $BB, $GPRO) into this company. The position is actually down ~13% from my point of entry, but having reviewed Q1 I am very impressed with the level of execution of this company. They continue to reinvest more and more capital into the business, as they effectively sole a growing volume of acute customer pains in a way that is increasingly harder to imitate, at scale. At present I believe the stock is considerably undervalued, due to the fact that the market still believes $HIMS is not a very defensible business.
$AMZN CEO Andy Jassy's comments about the pharmacy business in Q4 2023 suggest otherwise. I think the market is wrong here:
"[…] if you think about what we do on the retail side, adding a pharmacy capability is a pretty natural extension. It's something that customers had asked us for many years, and it's got more complexity to it than the rest of our retail business."
In aggregate, the investments that I've made since 2020 have performed very well, especially as I made the $PLTR and $SPOT positions larger during the past few years, which were filled with pessimism. This is despite the losses in $GPRO and $BB, which were not negligeable as were the losses from $AMRS, but nonetheless small enough in hindsight.
I believe this is just the beginning for all the companies mentioned above and so I expect the portfolio to perform very well over the coming 5 years. There's no telling what the stocks will do, but I believe the FCF/share levels of the mentioned companies will trend up and to the right, with the stocks eventually following suit.
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Offshore
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Giuliano
It’s very curious that Freud used a very similar metaphor as Kahneman, though for another thing. https://t.co/FLKyRe27Hz
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It’s very curious that Freud used a very similar metaphor as Kahneman, though for another thing. https://t.co/FLKyRe27Hz
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Offshore
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Offshore
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Giuliano
Unbelievably grateful to all of you who take some time to read mostly nonsensical thoughts.
Thank you for the encouragement and hope you find something interesting! https://t.co/oLCbfO6fwZ
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Unbelievably grateful to all of you who take some time to read mostly nonsensical thoughts.
Thank you for the encouragement and hope you find something interesting! https://t.co/oLCbfO6fwZ
tweet
Offshore
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The Long Investor
RT @StockMKTNewz: Amazon Web Services (AWS) $AMZN is now a $100 Billion annual run rate business https://t.co/XeY7L6igWr
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RT @StockMKTNewz: Amazon Web Services (AWS) $AMZN is now a $100 Billion annual run rate business https://t.co/XeY7L6igWr
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The Long Investor
PE Ratios at Bear Market Bottoms throughout history
Average is 11.7
Markets current PE ratio is 29.7
$SPY https://t.co/8G3kpX0sYr
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PE Ratios at Bear Market Bottoms throughout history
Average is 11.7
Markets current PE ratio is 29.7
$SPY https://t.co/8G3kpX0sYr
tweet
Offshore
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Q-Cap
Ford just hired the ex-CFO of Lucid.
A SPAC darling down -75% since IPO. https://t.co/1Awu0O0wDG
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Ford just hired the ex-CFO of Lucid.
A SPAC darling down -75% since IPO. https://t.co/1Awu0O0wDG
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