Offshore
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Q-Cap
This is exactly how I feel walking around some of these ghost malls. 90% of these stores are likely cash flow negative , doesn’t make any sense https://t.co/o5ojBuaSLj
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This is exactly how I feel walking around some of these ghost malls. 90% of these stores are likely cash flow negative , doesn’t make any sense https://t.co/o5ojBuaSLj
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Offshore
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Giuliano
When talking about Adam Smith, people always speak about The Invisible Hand.
It came curious to me to observe that this concept is only mentioned once, at page 399.
Even more curious is the fact that he doesn't even seem to directly relate it to supply and demand.
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When talking about Adam Smith, people always speak about The Invisible Hand.
It came curious to me to observe that this concept is only mentioned once, at page 399.
Even more curious is the fact that he doesn't even seem to directly relate it to supply and demand.
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Offshore
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Antonio Linares
We convoked an urgent meeting to discuss whether we should sell $PLTR, because analysts say that it is fairly valued.
We concluded that they need to snort more coke.
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We convoked an urgent meeting to discuss whether we should sell $PLTR, because analysts say that it is fairly valued.
We concluded that they need to snort more coke.
$PLTR y tapas 🔥
@alc2022 @Either_Square https://t.co/oWeEYr73sl tweet
Offshore
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Giuliano
I’m starting to find some utility in ideas from other disciplines.
I’ll finish my current reading cycle with this: https://t.co/xiCRTI5C7W
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I’m starting to find some utility in ideas from other disciplines.
I’ll finish my current reading cycle with this: https://t.co/xiCRTI5C7W
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Antonio Linares
Everything you need to know about $AMD before earnings today, in 8 bullet points:
1. Over the past decade, $AMD has transformed the chip industry by pioneering the use of chiplets—creating a single chip from multiple smaller ones rather than using a traditional monolithic approach like $NVDA. This innovation has not only shaken up $INTC but now threatens to challenge $NVDA too.
2. As we approach what many see as the limits of Moore's Law, the difficulties of developing monolithic chips are surging. Chiplets offer a clever workaround, providing equal or superior performance with better yields. $AMD has been refining this technology for nearly ten years, far ahead of its competitors.
3. At its core, $AMD is a collective of individuals dedicated to designing cutting-edge chips. The company's success stems from its strategic focus on chiplets and its robust internal culture, spearheaded by the exceptional leadership of Lisa Su, who fosters a sense of unity, accountability, and transparency within the team.
4. The acquisition of Xilinx by $AMD has puzzled many, yet it is a strategic move. Xilinx leads in FPGA technology, which permits chips to autonomously reconfigure themselves for various computational tasks. This capability is expected to be a game-changer in enhancing computing efficiency, particularly in AI acceleration.
5. With the purchase of Pensando, $AMD has significantly advanced its capabilities in managing stateful datacenters. These datacenters retain operational data that can be leveraged to train AI models, pushing the boundaries of automation. Pensando's integration not only brings valuable software expertise but also complements $AMD's existing technologies.
6. By integrating the innovations from Xilinx and Pensando, $AMD has crafted a unique strategic path. Its proprietary Infinity Fabric technology, essential for linking chiplets, now positions $AMD to seamlessly integrate diverse computing engines, providing a structural market advantage no competitor can match.
7. $AMD is leveraging its chiplet expertise to disrupt the GPU market, a sector dominated by $NVDA's increasingly large chips. As $AMD applies its successful strategy from the CPU realm to GPUs, it could potentially match or surpass $NVDA's offerings, especially if it maintains its organizational strengths.
8. Lisa Su constantly sand bags guidance and the market is expecting $AMD to comfortably beat the forecasted GPU sales. A surprise in either direction can lead to considerable volatility.
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Everything you need to know about $AMD before earnings today, in 8 bullet points:
1. Over the past decade, $AMD has transformed the chip industry by pioneering the use of chiplets—creating a single chip from multiple smaller ones rather than using a traditional monolithic approach like $NVDA. This innovation has not only shaken up $INTC but now threatens to challenge $NVDA too.
2. As we approach what many see as the limits of Moore's Law, the difficulties of developing monolithic chips are surging. Chiplets offer a clever workaround, providing equal or superior performance with better yields. $AMD has been refining this technology for nearly ten years, far ahead of its competitors.
3. At its core, $AMD is a collective of individuals dedicated to designing cutting-edge chips. The company's success stems from its strategic focus on chiplets and its robust internal culture, spearheaded by the exceptional leadership of Lisa Su, who fosters a sense of unity, accountability, and transparency within the team.
4. The acquisition of Xilinx by $AMD has puzzled many, yet it is a strategic move. Xilinx leads in FPGA technology, which permits chips to autonomously reconfigure themselves for various computational tasks. This capability is expected to be a game-changer in enhancing computing efficiency, particularly in AI acceleration.
5. With the purchase of Pensando, $AMD has significantly advanced its capabilities in managing stateful datacenters. These datacenters retain operational data that can be leveraged to train AI models, pushing the boundaries of automation. Pensando's integration not only brings valuable software expertise but also complements $AMD's existing technologies.
6. By integrating the innovations from Xilinx and Pensando, $AMD has crafted a unique strategic path. Its proprietary Infinity Fabric technology, essential for linking chiplets, now positions $AMD to seamlessly integrate diverse computing engines, providing a structural market advantage no competitor can match.
7. $AMD is leveraging its chiplet expertise to disrupt the GPU market, a sector dominated by $NVDA's increasingly large chips. As $AMD applies its successful strategy from the CPU realm to GPUs, it could potentially match or surpass $NVDA's offerings, especially if it maintains its organizational strengths.
8. Lisa Su constantly sand bags guidance and the market is expecting $AMD to comfortably beat the forecasted GPU sales. A surprise in either direction can lead to considerable volatility.
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Antonio Linares
Things $SPOT has in common with $AMZN:
1. A relentless user-centricity, seen in how many consumers choose to ignore alternatives.
2. A commitment to share economies of scale with consumers, delaying profits and compounding goodwill.
3. Relentless innovation and experimentation, while focusing on maximizing user life time value.
4. An ability to print profits and free cash flow when required.
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Things $SPOT has in common with $AMZN:
1. A relentless user-centricity, seen in how many consumers choose to ignore alternatives.
2. A commitment to share economies of scale with consumers, delaying profits and compounding goodwill.
3. Relentless innovation and experimentation, while focusing on maximizing user life time value.
4. An ability to print profits and free cash flow when required.
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Offshore
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Q-Cap
It’s like 2021 was a simulation
Lemonade down -90% since peaks https://t.co/k7G35lUqcy
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It’s like 2021 was a simulation
Lemonade down -90% since peaks https://t.co/k7G35lUqcy
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.84x
•5-Year Mean: 31.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 7.71%
•5-Year Mean: 4.94%
As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~145% MORE in earnings per share & ~56% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $14.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $9.68B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 13.96x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.4%
•2020: 11.5%
•2021: 13.6%
•2022: 12.7%
•2023: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.2%
•2020: 22.7%
•2021: 20.0%
•2022: 11.5%
•2023: 20.5%
$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $15.45B
•2023: $29.77B
•CAGR: 14.01%
FREE CASH FLOW✅*
•2015: $1.82B
•2023: $4.22B
•CAGR: 11.08%
*2015 start as $PYPL FCF declined ~10% from 2018 - 2023
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.42
•2023: $5.10
•CAGR: 18.74%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.20B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.11B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 7.5%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 8.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 16.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~145% MORE in EPS & ~56% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 6.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly above the (6.42%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.14 (0.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.65 (10.0% YoY)
2026E: $6.14 (8.7% YoY)
$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $6.14 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
18x P/E: $110.52💵 … ~21.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $98.24💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $85.96💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >14x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >16x earnings
The 🔑 here is not for $PYPL multiple to regress to its mean. Instead, a slight increase in the multiple (well-below it’s historical average) would suffice & I believe is more than reasonable & is still within the realm of a strong margin of safety
There’s still a ton of negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in just a couple of quarters if management continues to advance towards its goals
I believe they will — however, investors concerned with “turnaround risks” associated with $PYPL can still benefit through a smaller % to $PYPL
Today at $66💵 $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment
A dividend announcement would likely also be well-taken @acce
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 12.84x
•5-Year Mean: 31.51x
•NTM FCF Yield: 7.71%
•5-Year Mean: 4.94%
As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~145% MORE in earnings per share & ~56% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $14.06B
•Long-Term Debt: $9.68B
$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 13.96x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 12.4%
•2020: 11.5%
•2021: 13.6%
•2022: 12.7%
•2023: 14.8%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 15.2%
•2020: 22.7%
•2021: 20.0%
•2022: 11.5%
•2023: 20.5%
$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $15.45B
•2023: $29.77B
•CAGR: 14.01%
FREE CASH FLOW✅*
•2015: $1.82B
•2023: $4.22B
•CAGR: 11.08%
*2015 start as $PYPL FCF declined ~10% from 2018 - 2023
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $2.42
•2023: $5.10
•CAGR: 18.74%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 1.20B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.11B
By reducing its shares outstanding by 7.5%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 8.1% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 16.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~145% MORE in EPS & ~56% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 6.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly above the (6.42%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.14 (0.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.65 (10.0% YoY)
2026E: $6.14 (8.7% YoY)
$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $6.14 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
18x P/E: $110.52💵 … ~21.3% CAGR
16x P/E: $98.24💵 … ~16.0% CAGR
14x P/E: $85.96💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >14x earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >16x earnings
The 🔑 here is not for $PYPL multiple to regress to its mean. Instead, a slight increase in the multiple (well-below it’s historical average) would suffice & I believe is more than reasonable & is still within the realm of a strong margin of safety
There’s still a ton of negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in just a couple of quarters if management continues to advance towards its goals
I believe they will — however, investors concerned with “turnaround risks” associated with $PYPL can still benefit through a smaller % to $PYPL
Today at $66💵 $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment
A dividend announcement would likely also be well-taken @acce
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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