Offshore
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The Long Investor
RT @Stock_Inf0: PayPal repurchased $1.5B worth of shares in Q1 2024 ๐
With the $PYPL results out, let's take a look at how the shares outstanding evolved.
Currently, PayPal has 1.053B shares outstanding (as of March 27th). A decrease of 10.82% since 2021 ๐ https://t.co/ciUnWljZ9E
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RT @Stock_Inf0: PayPal repurchased $1.5B worth of shares in Q1 2024 ๐
With the $PYPL results out, let's take a look at how the shares outstanding evolved.
Currently, PayPal has 1.053B shares outstanding (as of March 27th). A decrease of 10.82% since 2021 ๐ https://t.co/ciUnWljZ9E
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Offshore
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Daniel
Michael Mauboussin recently held a fantastic speech on: How the best Investors Behave
He explained what they do differently and how we can copy their tactics.
Hereโs what they do๐๐ผ https://t.co/gpW9sg0g0D
tweet
Michael Mauboussin recently held a fantastic speech on: How the best Investors Behave
He explained what they do differently and how we can copy their tactics.
Hereโs what they do๐๐ผ https://t.co/gpW9sg0g0D
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
$BTC ETF started trading today in Hong Kong and did not start well but are we surprised?
The chart already showed the 50 Day MA rejected on the 23rd of April
Donโt fight the trend, take advantage of it and load up when the pull back is complete
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$BTC ETF started trading today in Hong Kong and did not start well but are we surprised?
The chart already showed the 50 Day MA rejected on the 23rd of April
Donโt fight the trend, take advantage of it and load up when the pull back is complete
$BTC I have white circled the moment the price hit the 50 Day MA on Tuesday and Weds this week and rejected.
The $SPY is now testing the 50 Day MA from below.
$BTC looks to be a few days ahead of the market....is this an indication of what will happen to the $SPY next? https://t.co/EjYfUyq6Lg tweet
Antonio Linares
Every investor needs a north star. This is mine:
1. Stocks are pieces of a company. A stock goes up 10X if the company's free cash flow per share levels go up 10X too.
2. To do that, a company needs to increase its earning power while increasing its defensibility. Often, this means that profits have to be pushed far out into the future.
3. We live in a network-defined economy, in which every industry is increasingly tending towards a winner-takes-all scenario. To truly understand companies today, you need to understand networks.
4. Networks are built via process power - by taking repeated actions everyday that convince the world to do business in your servers. From process power emerge all the moats that are relevant in the modern economy, like network effects, switching costs and branding.
5. Companies with extraordinary process power tend to multiply their revenue over time and are hard to disrupt, because their moat just keeps getting stronger. The focus of their process power tends to be on their customers.
6. Financials are the rearview mirror and qualitatives are the windscreen. When customer centricity and/or process power is lost, the company is on its way to fail. An obsession with end customers and willingness to experiment and self-canibalize / tolerance of failure will likely equate to financial success over the long term.
7. Moats eventually compound to create platforms, whereby the company in question brings a good/service to the world with an unattainable price/quality ratio. This privilege is reserved for the select few companies on Earth that have truly outstanding process power and extraordinary capital allocation skills. These companies are the 100 baggers of the world.
tweet
Every investor needs a north star. This is mine:
1. Stocks are pieces of a company. A stock goes up 10X if the company's free cash flow per share levels go up 10X too.
2. To do that, a company needs to increase its earning power while increasing its defensibility. Often, this means that profits have to be pushed far out into the future.
3. We live in a network-defined economy, in which every industry is increasingly tending towards a winner-takes-all scenario. To truly understand companies today, you need to understand networks.
4. Networks are built via process power - by taking repeated actions everyday that convince the world to do business in your servers. From process power emerge all the moats that are relevant in the modern economy, like network effects, switching costs and branding.
5. Companies with extraordinary process power tend to multiply their revenue over time and are hard to disrupt, because their moat just keeps getting stronger. The focus of their process power tends to be on their customers.
6. Financials are the rearview mirror and qualitatives are the windscreen. When customer centricity and/or process power is lost, the company is on its way to fail. An obsession with end customers and willingness to experiment and self-canibalize / tolerance of failure will likely equate to financial success over the long term.
7. Moats eventually compound to create platforms, whereby the company in question brings a good/service to the world with an unattainable price/quality ratio. This privilege is reserved for the select few companies on Earth that have truly outstanding process power and extraordinary capital allocation skills. These companies are the 100 baggers of the world.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Silver investors watching this pull back knowing full well this is exactly how they thought it would happen.
#silver https://t.co/xdwGFviv9S
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Silver investors watching this pull back knowing full well this is exactly how they thought it would happen.
#silver https://t.co/xdwGFviv9S
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.32x
โข10-Year Mean: 28.64x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.22%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.17%
As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in earnings per share & ~33% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $3.95B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.59B
$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2018: 34.9%
โข2019: 76.4%
โข2020: 9.0%
โข2021: 25.5%
โข2022: 29.1%
โข2023: 33.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2018: 136.2%
โข2019: (142.2%)
โข2020: (13.2%)
โข2021: (64.1%)
โข2022: (46.9%)
โข2023: (49.4%)
$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $14.87B
โข2023: $35.98B
โขCAGR: 9.23%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $1.76B
โข2023: $3.68B
โขCAGR: 7.65%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $1.10
โข2023: $3.54
โขCAGR: 12.39%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $0.45
โข2023: $2.16
โขCAGR: 16.98%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in EPS & ~33% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.01 (13.3% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.65 (16.0% YoY)
2026E: $5.36 (15.3% YoY)
$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, BUT letโs assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.10 in EPS (5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $112.20๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $107.10๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $102.00๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see EVEN when we assume a 20x - 21x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as youโll see in the P/E chart) AND EVEN when we assume a 5% lower earnings estimate in 2026, $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential
So, thereโs already a decent margin of safety ๐ช๐ฝ
When we assume >22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens
$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $88.00๐ต
$SBUX reports earnings today after close ๐๏ธ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.32x
โข10-Year Mean: 28.64x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 4.22%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.17%
As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in earnings per share & ~33% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $3.95B
โขLong-Term Debt: $13.59B
$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2018: 34.9%
โข2019: 76.4%
โข2020: 9.0%
โข2021: 25.5%
โข2022: 29.1%
โข2023: 33.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2018: 136.2%
โข2019: (142.2%)
โข2020: (13.2%)
โข2021: (64.1%)
โข2022: (46.9%)
โข2023: (49.4%)
$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $14.87B
โข2023: $35.98B
โขCAGR: 9.23%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $1.76B
โข2023: $3.68B
โขCAGR: 7.65%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $1.10
โข2023: $3.54
โขCAGR: 12.39%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2013: $0.45
โข2023: $2.16
โขCAGR: 16.98%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in EPS & ~33% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.01 (13.3% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.65 (16.0% YoY)
2026E: $5.36 (15.3% YoY)
$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, BUT letโs assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.10 in EPS (5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $112.20๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $107.10๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $102.00๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see EVEN when we assume a 20x - 21x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as youโll see in the P/E chart) AND EVEN when we assume a 5% lower earnings estimate in 2026, $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential
So, thereโs already a decent margin of safety ๐ช๐ฝ
When we assume >22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens
$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $88.00๐ต
$SBUX reports earnings today after close ๐๏ธ
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Look at those outflows in Commodity ETFs.
I think there could be a massive reflexivity play here.
Weโre approaching supply crises in multiple metals from Electrification, Military, and Bans.
Funds will then inevitably chase performance.
#commodities
H/t @RonStoeferle https://t.co/i0CdpFi2cQ
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Look at those outflows in Commodity ETFs.
I think there could be a massive reflexivity play here.
Weโre approaching supply crises in multiple metals from Electrification, Military, and Bans.
Funds will then inevitably chase performance.
#commodities
H/t @RonStoeferle https://t.co/i0CdpFi2cQ
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