Offshore
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The Long Investor
$PYPL First Target has now been hit in the PM.
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$PYPL First Target has now been hit in the PM.
$PYPL very nice test of the 50 and 200 Day MA for support and bounced
Moving well leading up to earnings tomorrow before the market opens.
First Target is at $71 if this gets a clean breakout.
They need a flawless report now, no surprises and improving margins. https://t.co/nPgUApsqHh tweet
The Long Investor
$PYPL now up 40% in 6 months.
Nice
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$PYPL now up 40% in 6 months.
Nice
$PYPL is up 32% over the last 6 months
This not a meme stock
It’s a $70 Billion market cap company and to be up 32% in a half a year is not a bad performance.
You want a steady climb in the right direction, you don’t want parabolic moves, charts break down when this happens. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) on X
$PYPL is up 32% over the last 6 months
This not a meme stock
It’s a $70 Billion market cap company and to be up 32% in a half a year is not a bad performance.
You want a steady climb in the right direction, you don’t want parabolic moves, charts break…
This not a meme stock
It’s a $70 Billion market cap company and to be up 32% in a half a year is not a bad performance.
You want a steady climb in the right direction, you don’t want parabolic moves, charts break…
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
RT @Stock_Inf0: PayPal repurchased $1.5B worth of shares in Q1 2024 👑
With the $PYPL results out, let's take a look at how the shares outstanding evolved.
Currently, PayPal has 1.053B shares outstanding (as of March 27th). A decrease of 10.82% since 2021 📉 https://t.co/ciUnWljZ9E
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RT @Stock_Inf0: PayPal repurchased $1.5B worth of shares in Q1 2024 👑
With the $PYPL results out, let's take a look at how the shares outstanding evolved.
Currently, PayPal has 1.053B shares outstanding (as of March 27th). A decrease of 10.82% since 2021 📉 https://t.co/ciUnWljZ9E
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Offshore
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Daniel
Michael Mauboussin recently held a fantastic speech on: How the best Investors Behave
He explained what they do differently and how we can copy their tactics.
Here’s what they do👇🏼 https://t.co/gpW9sg0g0D
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Michael Mauboussin recently held a fantastic speech on: How the best Investors Behave
He explained what they do differently and how we can copy their tactics.
Here’s what they do👇🏼 https://t.co/gpW9sg0g0D
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$BTC ETF started trading today in Hong Kong and did not start well but are we surprised?
The chart already showed the 50 Day MA rejected on the 23rd of April
Don’t fight the trend, take advantage of it and load up when the pull back is complete
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$BTC ETF started trading today in Hong Kong and did not start well but are we surprised?
The chart already showed the 50 Day MA rejected on the 23rd of April
Don’t fight the trend, take advantage of it and load up when the pull back is complete
$BTC I have white circled the moment the price hit the 50 Day MA on Tuesday and Weds this week and rejected.
The $SPY is now testing the 50 Day MA from below.
$BTC looks to be a few days ahead of the market....is this an indication of what will happen to the $SPY next? https://t.co/EjYfUyq6Lg tweet
Antonio Linares
Every investor needs a north star. This is mine:
1. Stocks are pieces of a company. A stock goes up 10X if the company's free cash flow per share levels go up 10X too.
2. To do that, a company needs to increase its earning power while increasing its defensibility. Often, this means that profits have to be pushed far out into the future.
3. We live in a network-defined economy, in which every industry is increasingly tending towards a winner-takes-all scenario. To truly understand companies today, you need to understand networks.
4. Networks are built via process power - by taking repeated actions everyday that convince the world to do business in your servers. From process power emerge all the moats that are relevant in the modern economy, like network effects, switching costs and branding.
5. Companies with extraordinary process power tend to multiply their revenue over time and are hard to disrupt, because their moat just keeps getting stronger. The focus of their process power tends to be on their customers.
6. Financials are the rearview mirror and qualitatives are the windscreen. When customer centricity and/or process power is lost, the company is on its way to fail. An obsession with end customers and willingness to experiment and self-canibalize / tolerance of failure will likely equate to financial success over the long term.
7. Moats eventually compound to create platforms, whereby the company in question brings a good/service to the world with an unattainable price/quality ratio. This privilege is reserved for the select few companies on Earth that have truly outstanding process power and extraordinary capital allocation skills. These companies are the 100 baggers of the world.
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Every investor needs a north star. This is mine:
1. Stocks are pieces of a company. A stock goes up 10X if the company's free cash flow per share levels go up 10X too.
2. To do that, a company needs to increase its earning power while increasing its defensibility. Often, this means that profits have to be pushed far out into the future.
3. We live in a network-defined economy, in which every industry is increasingly tending towards a winner-takes-all scenario. To truly understand companies today, you need to understand networks.
4. Networks are built via process power - by taking repeated actions everyday that convince the world to do business in your servers. From process power emerge all the moats that are relevant in the modern economy, like network effects, switching costs and branding.
5. Companies with extraordinary process power tend to multiply their revenue over time and are hard to disrupt, because their moat just keeps getting stronger. The focus of their process power tends to be on their customers.
6. Financials are the rearview mirror and qualitatives are the windscreen. When customer centricity and/or process power is lost, the company is on its way to fail. An obsession with end customers and willingness to experiment and self-canibalize / tolerance of failure will likely equate to financial success over the long term.
7. Moats eventually compound to create platforms, whereby the company in question brings a good/service to the world with an unattainable price/quality ratio. This privilege is reserved for the select few companies on Earth that have truly outstanding process power and extraordinary capital allocation skills. These companies are the 100 baggers of the world.
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
Silver investors watching this pull back knowing full well this is exactly how they thought it would happen.
#silver https://t.co/xdwGFviv9S
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Silver investors watching this pull back knowing full well this is exactly how they thought it would happen.
#silver https://t.co/xdwGFviv9S
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.32x
•10-Year Mean: 28.64x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.22%
•10-Year Mean: 3.17%
As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in earnings per share & ~33% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $3.95B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.59B
$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 34.9%
•2019: 76.4%
•2020: 9.0%
•2021: 25.5%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 33.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2018: 136.2%
•2019: (142.2%)
•2020: (13.2%)
•2021: (64.1%)
•2022: (46.9%)
•2023: (49.4%)
$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $14.87B
•2023: $35.98B
•CAGR: 9.23%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.76B
•2023: $3.68B
•CAGR: 7.65%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.10
•2023: $3.54
•CAGR: 12.39%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.45
•2023: $2.16
•CAGR: 16.98%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in EPS & ~33% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.01 (13.3% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.65 (16.0% YoY)
2026E: $5.36 (15.3% YoY)
$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, BUT let’s assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.10 in EPS (5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $112.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $107.10💵 … ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $102.00💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see EVEN when we assume a 20x - 21x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as you’ll see in the P/E chart) AND EVEN when we assume a 5% lower earnings estimate in 2026, $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential
So, there’s already a decent margin of safety 💪🏽
When we assume >22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens
$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $88.00💵
$SBUX reports earnings today after close 🗓️
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $SBUX 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 21.32x
•10-Year Mean: 28.64x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.22%
•10-Year Mean: 3.17%
As you can see, $SBUX appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in earnings per share & ~33% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SBUX is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Equivalents: $3.95B
•Long-Term Debt: $13.59B
$SBUX has a decent balance sheet, a BBB+ S&P Credit Rating & 10.92x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 34.9%
•2019: 76.4%
•2020: 9.0%
•2021: 25.5%
•2022: 29.1%
•2023: 33.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2018: 136.2%
•2019: (142.2%)
•2020: (13.2%)
•2021: (64.1%)
•2022: (46.9%)
•2023: (49.4%)
$SBUX has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $14.87B
•2023: $35.98B
•CAGR: 9.23%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.76B
•2023: $3.68B
•CAGR: 7.65%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.10
•2023: $3.54
•CAGR: 12.39%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.52B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.15B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~24%, $SBUX increased its EPS by ~31% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 27.4%
•LTM Operating Margins: 15.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 11.5%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2013: $0.45
•2023: $2.16
•CAGR: 16.98%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~34% MORE in EPS & ~33% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SBUX has to grow earnings at an 10.62% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be greater than the (10.13%) required growth rate:
2024E: $4.01 (13.3% YoY) *FY Sep
2025E: $4.65 (16.0% YoY)
2026E: $5.36 (15.3% YoY)
$SBUX has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, BUT let’s assume $SBUX ends 2026 with $5.10 in EPS (5% below current estimates) & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
22x P/E: $112.20💵 … ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $107.10💵 … ~11.0% CAGR
20x P/E: $102.00💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
As you can see EVEN when we assume a 20x - 21x multiple (a level that has rarely been breached in the past decade as you’ll see in the P/E chart) AND EVEN when we assume a 5% lower earnings estimate in 2026, $SBUX has attractive CAGR potential
So, there’s already a decent margin of safety 💪🏽
When we assume >22x (also well below its 10-year average and on the lower end of its valuation range), $SBUX has the potential to compound in the mid-teens
$SBUX appears to be an attractive consideration today at $88.00💵
$SBUX reports earnings today after close 🗓️
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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