The Long Investor
From 3.4% to 1.6% Q/Q
Earnings will reflect this deterioration
Everything has been aligning for us
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From 3.4% to 1.6% Q/Q
Earnings will reflect this deterioration
Everything has been aligning for us
U.S. Q1 GDP Q/Q (ADV.): +1.6% vs. +2.5% expected vs. +3.4% previous tweet
The Long Investor
Now I have your attention, this message below was sent out on Monday when the market bounced
Let me be very clear here:
This is called exit liquidity so smart money can exit their positions because the rapid decline last week caught them off guard.
- Hot CPI
- US 10 YR rising
- conflict in the Middle East
- precious metals climbing
Was not part of the plan.
Every decline moves in 3 stages
Some call it the initial decline, dead cat bounce and then the final decline
We call it an ABC, 3 wave move.
Whatever you call it, it does not finish after 1 move down.
tweet
Now I have your attention, this message below was sent out on Monday when the market bounced
Let me be very clear here:
This is called exit liquidity so smart money can exit their positions because the rapid decline last week caught them off guard.
- Hot CPI
- US 10 YR rising
- conflict in the Middle East
- precious metals climbing
Was not part of the plan.
Every decline moves in 3 stages
Some call it the initial decline, dead cat bounce and then the final decline
We call it an ABC, 3 wave move.
Whatever you call it, it does not finish after 1 move down.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Antonio Linares
Over the coming decade, I believe $TSLA stock will go way above $2k/share.
I've been a shareholder since 2016 and if I had sold every time the masses got depressed, $TSLA wouldn't have been a multibagger for me.
Here's my reasoning:
While many primarily view $TSLA as an automaker, it's actually crafting a platform that could be as revolutionary as the internet in terms of impact.
As $TSLA pushes forward with this initiative, it nears a critical juncture that overshadows its past achievements.
Despite the recent swings in $TSLA's stock price, the company has significantly upgraded its manufacturing capabilities from just a year prior.
This is visible in the rising FCF/Op.Margin levels. In the graph below, notice how the metric has not trended up in this manner since 2020.
An increase in this metric indicate Tesla’s ability to produce more free cash flow with lower margins, meaning more efficient manufacturing (and operational) processes.
After the 2020 increment, Tesla proliferated its ability to produce cash, sending the stock up 10X in a very short period of time, hitting an all time high of ~$400 in late 2021.
The above metric suggests that the same is going to happen over the coming years.
You may also notice that the above graph exhibits a cyclical tendency.
This is due to Tesla lowering prices every time it reaches a new threshold of efficiency, in order to share economies of scale with customers. This increases customer loyalty and decreases the cost of acquiring new customers.
Most investors do not get this and as such, cannot truly understand the company.
In turn, this advanced manufacturing skill is driving $TSLA's ambitious ventures into the AI and renewable energy domains.
In the graph below you can see how these two businesses are starting to grow exponentially:
These efforts are coalescing into a "second internet of things," where AI-powered robots perform global tasks autonomously and at a marginal cost, capitalizing on $TSLA's key strength in swift economic optimization.
This platform can redefine the economy.
As $TSLA puts more cars, solar panels and batteries out into the world, it generates more data. This data can then be used to train AI models, which will turn $TSLA into a robotics giant.
To compete with them, you need to put out as much hardware into the world as they do which, given their extreme and ever rising levels of manufacturing efficiency, is almost impossible to do.
As this pool of data expands, so too does $TSLA's prowess in AI, making the moat exponentially stronger.
While the car market faces volatility from rising interest rates and increased competition, if there's something $TSLA can do is create enough gravitas for people to want to buy their cars.
Going forward, the manufacturing efficiency increases together with the gravitas should keep the auto business going, which is after all the business that sustains the company today.
While the market has recently created the narrative that $TLSA needs to create robo-taxis to survive at all, the fact is $TSLA's next gen EVs will likely WOW customers regardless.
While there is no guarantee that $TSLA will succeed, I believe it deserves a place in my portfolio (of not more than a few stocks). $TSLA can fail, but while everyone gets depressed the company is advancing very well on its key value drivers.
I therefore see the odds of the above platform coming to live being much higher than 2 years ago when the market thought that $TSLA was undisruptable.
tweet
Over the coming decade, I believe $TSLA stock will go way above $2k/share.
I've been a shareholder since 2016 and if I had sold every time the masses got depressed, $TSLA wouldn't have been a multibagger for me.
Here's my reasoning:
While many primarily view $TSLA as an automaker, it's actually crafting a platform that could be as revolutionary as the internet in terms of impact.
As $TSLA pushes forward with this initiative, it nears a critical juncture that overshadows its past achievements.
Despite the recent swings in $TSLA's stock price, the company has significantly upgraded its manufacturing capabilities from just a year prior.
This is visible in the rising FCF/Op.Margin levels. In the graph below, notice how the metric has not trended up in this manner since 2020.
An increase in this metric indicate Tesla’s ability to produce more free cash flow with lower margins, meaning more efficient manufacturing (and operational) processes.
After the 2020 increment, Tesla proliferated its ability to produce cash, sending the stock up 10X in a very short period of time, hitting an all time high of ~$400 in late 2021.
The above metric suggests that the same is going to happen over the coming years.
You may also notice that the above graph exhibits a cyclical tendency.
This is due to Tesla lowering prices every time it reaches a new threshold of efficiency, in order to share economies of scale with customers. This increases customer loyalty and decreases the cost of acquiring new customers.
Most investors do not get this and as such, cannot truly understand the company.
In turn, this advanced manufacturing skill is driving $TSLA's ambitious ventures into the AI and renewable energy domains.
In the graph below you can see how these two businesses are starting to grow exponentially:
These efforts are coalescing into a "second internet of things," where AI-powered robots perform global tasks autonomously and at a marginal cost, capitalizing on $TSLA's key strength in swift economic optimization.
This platform can redefine the economy.
As $TSLA puts more cars, solar panels and batteries out into the world, it generates more data. This data can then be used to train AI models, which will turn $TSLA into a robotics giant.
To compete with them, you need to put out as much hardware into the world as they do which, given their extreme and ever rising levels of manufacturing efficiency, is almost impossible to do.
As this pool of data expands, so too does $TSLA's prowess in AI, making the moat exponentially stronger.
While the car market faces volatility from rising interest rates and increased competition, if there's something $TSLA can do is create enough gravitas for people to want to buy their cars.
Going forward, the manufacturing efficiency increases together with the gravitas should keep the auto business going, which is after all the business that sustains the company today.
While the market has recently created the narrative that $TLSA needs to create robo-taxis to survive at all, the fact is $TSLA's next gen EVs will likely WOW customers regardless.
While there is no guarantee that $TSLA will succeed, I believe it deserves a place in my portfolio (of not more than a few stocks). $TSLA can fail, but while everyone gets depressed the company is advancing very well on its key value drivers.
I therefore see the odds of the above platform coming to live being much higher than 2 years ago when the market thought that $TSLA was undisruptable.
tweet
The Long Investor
6 days ago I sent this alert out.
$GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
tweet
6 days ago I sent this alert out.
$GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
$GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) on X
$GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
Brandon Beylo
I'm getting @ragingbullcap on the podcast to dive deep into BQE Water $BQE.V.
This is an excellent example of an under-the-radar mining picks and shovels play.
Really interesting setup and Jake is one of the most informed investors in the company.
Plus, huge base breakout.
tweet
I'm getting @ragingbullcap on the podcast to dive deep into BQE Water $BQE.V.
This is an excellent example of an under-the-radar mining picks and shovels play.
Really interesting setup and Jake is one of the most informed investors in the company.
Plus, huge base breakout.
tweet
The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
tweet
RT @TheLongInvest: $GOOG post earnings drop is going to be violent.
Yes I will be retweeting this next Thursday after they report their earnings.
tweet
The Long Investor
For $37, you instantly get access to every chart I’ve ever uploaded.
- All Mega Caps and our Top 20 price targets for this correction
- $SPY and $QQQ PT’s to buy at.
- Safe Havens to buy to protect your capital
- Elliott Wave Theory course
- My Buy and Sell alerts.
No contract, no commitment, no brainer.
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For $37, you instantly get access to every chart I’ve ever uploaded.
- All Mega Caps and our Top 20 price targets for this correction
- $SPY and $QQQ PT’s to buy at.
- Safe Havens to buy to protect your capital
- Elliott Wave Theory course
- My Buy and Sell alerts.
No contract, no commitment, no brainer.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Q-Cap
If you get this joke, you’re probably a seasoned investor by now. https://t.co/KofKwBIyUS
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If you get this joke, you’re probably a seasoned investor by now. https://t.co/KofKwBIyUS
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$SPY the market rallied from October ‘22 to March ‘24 in Waves 1 to 5.
The first rate cut was expected in March ‘24, inflation came in hot so the Fed delayed this
But the market had already decided this was time for the pull back as Wave 5 extended parabolically at the end of Q1
Q2 began and immediately the decline started, very aggressively, just in time for earnings season.
This was clear and obvious: commodities, the US10 Yr, the Vix, HSI, crypto, all showed signs that this time was different than just a standard pull back.
The market was on a knife edge and the conflict in the Middle East tipped the scales, too much uncertainty and volatility for the market to remain bullish.
This correction is not a crash for me and I don’t believe a recession will be hard, I also believe this correction can be complete before the US elections in Nov as it has started very aggressively.
So sit on your hands, stay in cash and look forward to buying strong companies at a heavily discounted price soon
$SPY $QQQ
tweet
$SPY the market rallied from October ‘22 to March ‘24 in Waves 1 to 5.
The first rate cut was expected in March ‘24, inflation came in hot so the Fed delayed this
But the market had already decided this was time for the pull back as Wave 5 extended parabolically at the end of Q1
Q2 began and immediately the decline started, very aggressively, just in time for earnings season.
This was clear and obvious: commodities, the US10 Yr, the Vix, HSI, crypto, all showed signs that this time was different than just a standard pull back.
The market was on a knife edge and the conflict in the Middle East tipped the scales, too much uncertainty and volatility for the market to remain bullish.
This correction is not a crash for me and I don’t believe a recession will be hard, I also believe this correction can be complete before the US elections in Nov as it has started very aggressively.
So sit on your hands, stay in cash and look forward to buying strong companies at a heavily discounted price soon
$SPY $QQQ
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