Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ On April 3, I shared my analysis on $UNH suggesting it was undervalued & a good consideration at $458๐ต Since that post, $UNH is trading +8.3% higher ๐ while the $SPY is down -3.5% in the same timeframe ๐ As I stated in myโฆ
7 (10.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $30.54 (10.0% YoY)
2026E: $33.59 (10.0% YoY)
$UNH has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $UNH ends 2026 with $33.59 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
19x P/E: $638.21๐ต โฆ ~14.3% CAGR
18x P/E: $604.62๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
17x P/E: $571.03๐ต โฆ ~9.9% CAGR
As you can see, $UNH appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 18x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean) & a reduced growth rate
Thatโs a great rate of return for an excellent capital allocator & wide-moat recession-proof business like $UNH
Today at $458๐ต $UNH appears to be a strong consideration for investment
However, keep in mind how volatile $UNH (and all health insurers) can get amid regulatory & political risks
Those considering $UNH would be wise to piece into the position, leaving room for additional purchases if $UNH continues to trade down to an even more attractive valuation
E.g. 1/3 of the purchase at $458๐ต, another 1/3 at $410๐ต, & 1/3 at $380๐ต
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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2025E: $30.54 (10.0% YoY)
2026E: $33.59 (10.0% YoY)
$UNH has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $UNH ends 2026 with $33.59 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
19x P/E: $638.21๐ต โฆ ~14.3% CAGR
18x P/E: $604.62๐ต โฆ ~12.1% CAGR
17x P/E: $571.03๐ต โฆ ~9.9% CAGR
As you can see, $UNH appears to have attractive return potential even if we assume 18x earnings (a multiple below both its 5-year & 10-year mean) & a reduced growth rate
Thatโs a great rate of return for an excellent capital allocator & wide-moat recession-proof business like $UNH
Today at $458๐ต $UNH appears to be a strong consideration for investment
However, keep in mind how volatile $UNH (and all health insurers) can get amid regulatory & political risks
Those considering $UNH would be wise to piece into the position, leaving room for additional purchases if $UNH continues to trade down to an even more attractive valuation
E.g. 1/3 of the purchase at $458๐ต, another 1/3 at $410๐ต, & 1/3 at $380๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
Wow.
I really think Alphamin $AFM.V is gonna do it.
They will ramp up a new mine (Mpama South) right when the underlying commodity is inflecting higher, and supply is deteriorating.
This will go down in Mining Executive Lore.
#tin https://t.co/7izu3X0fDD
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Wow.
I really think Alphamin $AFM.V is gonna do it.
They will ramp up a new mine (Mpama South) right when the underlying commodity is inflecting higher, and supply is deteriorating.
This will go down in Mining Executive Lore.
#tin https://t.co/7izu3X0fDD
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AkhenOsiris
Niles basically saying it's Mag8, NFLX is 8th member
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Niles basically saying it's Mag8, NFLX is 8th member
$NFLX reports today. Stock reaction to expectations of beat & raise qtr will be viewed as bellweather for Mag7 starting next wk despite fundamentally not having much in common. Still believe selectivity is key for Q1 earnings & rest of yr especially w/ Fed potentially on hold. - Dan Nilestweet
AkhenOsiris
$ZS
Gartner highlighted Zscaler's strong revenue growth is outpacing the market, and that Zscaler is frequently seen on vendor shortlists for SSE. Geographic strategy was also recognized, specifically Zscaler's global Points of Presence (PoPs) are strategically positioned close to major population centers, and it has secured a strong set of regional accreditations, including FedRAMP High, C5, IRAP, and UK Cyber Essentials. Customers continue to choose Zscaler for its ability to provide true zero trust security on a global scale.
"We're proud that Gartner has recognized Zscaler as a Leader in the Magic Quadrant for SSE for all three years since the report's inception," said Jay Chaudhry, CEO, Chairman, and Founder of Zscaler. "SSE remains a popular framework for guiding customers on their security transformation journeys, and we have significant architectural advantages compared to SSE powered by Next Generation Firewalls (NGFWs). As we have been repeatedly reminded by security breaches in recent months, firewall and VPN vendors continue to experience critical vulnerabilities that leave their customers at risk of attack. It's clear that customers should leave legacy network security behind and migrate to a zero trust architecture."
In addition to being named a Leader in the 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for SSE, Zscaler has also been recognized by customers. The company is honored of its consistently high rating in Gartner Peer Insights, currently at 4.5/5, and is the most reviewed vendor in the SSE segment. Zscaler consistently achieves an NPS score over 70, far above the average for SaaS vendors.
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$ZS
Gartner highlighted Zscaler's strong revenue growth is outpacing the market, and that Zscaler is frequently seen on vendor shortlists for SSE. Geographic strategy was also recognized, specifically Zscaler's global Points of Presence (PoPs) are strategically positioned close to major population centers, and it has secured a strong set of regional accreditations, including FedRAMP High, C5, IRAP, and UK Cyber Essentials. Customers continue to choose Zscaler for its ability to provide true zero trust security on a global scale.
"We're proud that Gartner has recognized Zscaler as a Leader in the Magic Quadrant for SSE for all three years since the report's inception," said Jay Chaudhry, CEO, Chairman, and Founder of Zscaler. "SSE remains a popular framework for guiding customers on their security transformation journeys, and we have significant architectural advantages compared to SSE powered by Next Generation Firewalls (NGFWs). As we have been repeatedly reminded by security breaches in recent months, firewall and VPN vendors continue to experience critical vulnerabilities that leave their customers at risk of attack. It's clear that customers should leave legacy network security behind and migrate to a zero trust architecture."
In addition to being named a Leader in the 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for SSE, Zscaler has also been recognized by customers. The company is honored of its consistently high rating in Gartner Peer Insights, currently at 4.5/5, and is the most reviewed vendor in the SSE segment. Zscaler consistently achieves an NPS score over 70, far above the average for SaaS vendors.
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AkhenOsiris
Anyone remember when a stock crash was actually like a crash? Fintards always throwing out 'crash' when a stonk is down 3%, and now Axios basically joining the party.
Axios:
"Netflix's stock crashed Thursday after the streaming giant said it would no longer report subscriber growth numbers to Wall Street, and instead focus on delivering key financial metrics, like operating margin and profitability."
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Anyone remember when a stock crash was actually like a crash? Fintards always throwing out 'crash' when a stonk is down 3%, and now Axios basically joining the party.
Axios:
"Netflix's stock crashed Thursday after the streaming giant said it would no longer report subscriber growth numbers to Wall Street, and instead focus on delivering key financial metrics, like operating margin and profitability."
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $QQQ
Chart on the 16th of November 2023 and
$QQQ chart today.
6 months later.
Same level, same date.
This is why we are the best in the business https://t.co/qZZYaV0XNZ
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RT @TheLongInvest: $QQQ
Chart on the 16th of November 2023 and
$QQQ chart today.
6 months later.
Same level, same date.
This is why we are the best in the business https://t.co/qZZYaV0XNZ
$QQQ 5 year projection.
Be ready for the Fed pivot next year for Wave 2.
Otherwise, I am bullish on Tech for the next 5 years. https://t.co/cpnw7xjPDT - The Long Investortweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
RT @TheLongInvest: $TSLA here is your game plan.
$TSLA either holds at $144 on the 0.78 Fib (and saves the sector)
or
its dropping down below $100 and you get an opportunity to buy $TSLA when it is undervalued with a margin of safety. https://t.co/deEBIPP03e
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RT @TheLongInvest: $TSLA here is your game plan.
$TSLA either holds at $144 on the 0.78 Fib (and saves the sector)
or
its dropping down below $100 and you get an opportunity to buy $TSLA when it is undervalued with a margin of safety. https://t.co/deEBIPP03e
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The Long Investor
Contrarians catch the reversals
Value investors catch the breakouts
Retail investors create the euphoria.
Gamblers hold the bags.
Most investors/traders start as gamblers and slowly work their way up to the Contrarian stage.
We have all been here, myself included but the lessons you learn along the way will help you move higher
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Contrarians catch the reversals
Value investors catch the breakouts
Retail investors create the euphoria.
Gamblers hold the bags.
Most investors/traders start as gamblers and slowly work their way up to the Contrarian stage.
We have all been here, myself included but the lessons you learn along the way will help you move higher
tweet
The Long Investor
- Markets lost the 50 DAY MA this week
- VIX reversing upward
- US OIL hit a 6 month high this week
- GOLD & SILVER have moved parabolic
- MEGA Caps are starting to decline
- US 10 YR exploded higher this week
- Israel V Iran
- Russia V Ukraine
- Inflation coming in hot
- Nikki plunges -3%
- Bitcoin halving event tomorrow
- Earnings season has just started
All of this happened at the start of Q2 and we are only 18 days in.
$SPY $QQQ $BTC
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- Markets lost the 50 DAY MA this week
- VIX reversing upward
- US OIL hit a 6 month high this week
- GOLD & SILVER have moved parabolic
- MEGA Caps are starting to decline
- US 10 YR exploded higher this week
- Israel V Iran
- Russia V Ukraine
- Inflation coming in hot
- Nikki plunges -3%
- Bitcoin halving event tomorrow
- Earnings season has just started
All of this happened at the start of Q2 and we are only 18 days in.
$SPY $QQQ $BTC
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
Market experienced a massive influx of new capital in November and December โ23 as retail investors returned to the market to chase.
Usually a strong sign that the market is in Wave 5, which indicates a top
Wave 5 went parabolic and jumped 26% over 5 months.
Market is now being hit by multiple negative catalysts right around the same time.
The market also initially considered that the first rate cut would happen in March
This is now delayed but the market is keeping to its original plan
Pulling back when Q1 ended
I believe the market will continue to pull back for the next few months and then rally for Wave A leading up to the US election in November, before pulling back again afterwards to complete Wave C
I have added $SPY and $QQQ charts here for free over the last 2 day to show this interpretation.
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Market experienced a massive influx of new capital in November and December โ23 as retail investors returned to the market to chase.
Usually a strong sign that the market is in Wave 5, which indicates a top
Wave 5 went parabolic and jumped 26% over 5 months.
Market is now being hit by multiple negative catalysts right around the same time.
The market also initially considered that the first rate cut would happen in March
This is now delayed but the market is keeping to its original plan
Pulling back when Q1 ended
I believe the market will continue to pull back for the next few months and then rally for Wave A leading up to the US election in November, before pulling back again afterwards to complete Wave C
I have added $SPY and $QQQ charts here for free over the last 2 day to show this interpretation.
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