Offshore
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The Long Investor
$AAPL why is $AAPL the only stock green?
Our members know why, it is the only Mega Cap that has completed its Wave A correction and is in Wave B now.
All other Mega Caps appear to be only starting their Correction.
$AAPL lead the market to decline in July 2023 and will likely be the first to recover from its correction.
$AAPL will always be the market leader.
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$AAPL why is $AAPL the only stock green?
Our members know why, it is the only Mega Cap that has completed its Wave A correction and is in Wave B now.
All other Mega Caps appear to be only starting their Correction.
$AAPL lead the market to decline in July 2023 and will likely be the first to recover from its correction.
$AAPL will always be the market leader.
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Offshore
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Q-Cap
The bottom performers of the $SPY is starting to have some really interesting prospects. https://t.co/5CfeyBGVOP
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The bottom performers of the $SPY is starting to have some really interesting prospects. https://t.co/5CfeyBGVOP
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The Long Investor
Well this explains why Copper has been rising aggressively
US and UK have just banned Russia from their exchanges
Which lowers supply greatly
Amazing how some important people were aware of this before it was dropped by the news
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Well this explains why Copper has been rising aggressively
US and UK have just banned Russia from their exchanges
Which lowers supply greatly
Amazing how some important people were aware of this before it was dropped by the news
JUST IN: RUSSIA BANNED FROM SENDING NEW ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND NICKEL TO U.S. & U.K. METAL EXCHANGES tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Stock Talk (@stocktalkweekly) on X
JUST IN: RUSSIA BANNED FROM SENDING NEW ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND NICKEL TO U.S. & U.K. METAL EXCHANGES
Offshore
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The Long Investor
Neutral seems fair, considering the market has not lost the 50 Day MA yet
$SPY https://t.co/ajq9BAF4Lv
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Neutral seems fair, considering the market has not lost the 50 Day MA yet
$SPY https://t.co/ajq9BAF4Lv
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Offshore
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The Long Investor
In the space of 10hrs
The market went from 15 to 35 companies in the S&P 500 with an RSI below 30.
It was at 5 last week.
No sector was safe today
$SPY
Top 20 in terms of Market Cap: https://t.co/3PHMsL62HE
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In the space of 10hrs
The market went from 15 to 35 companies in the S&P 500 with an RSI below 30.
It was at 5 last week.
No sector was safe today
$SPY
Top 20 in terms of Market Cap: https://t.co/3PHMsL62HE
One week later
There are now 15 companies in the S&P 500 with an RSI below 30.
Some big names here:
$BA
$CVS
$SBUX
$JNJ
$LULU
$MNST
$AMT
$UNH https://t.co/llnjZUmQKN tweet
Offshore
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Giuliano
RT @vecinoinversor_: Si alguno quiere leer más sobre esta maravillosa empresa, spin-off de Pfizer $PFE, tiene artículos muy top de @Giuliano_Mana, incluida una tesis.
👉 https://t.co/fie73bLDt7
Empresa muy top, Zoetis $ZTS 🐕💉
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RT @vecinoinversor_: Si alguno quiere leer más sobre esta maravillosa empresa, spin-off de Pfizer $PFE, tiene artículos muy top de @Giuliano_Mana, incluida una tesis.
👉 https://t.co/fie73bLDt7
Empresa muy top, Zoetis $ZTS 🐕💉
Abro pequeña posición en Zoetis $ZTS a 149,5$ @vecinoinversor_ https://t.co/4wppcWZ52H tweet
The Long Investor
I’m going to be very honest:
A LOT of people should not be investing (and certainly not trading) in anything other than a Market Index ETF
Like the $SPY and just routinely add to it every month for 30 years.
The very basics of investing are not understood by the vast majority of people.
Let’s be clear here:
Start learning
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I’m going to be very honest:
A LOT of people should not be investing (and certainly not trading) in anything other than a Market Index ETF
Like the $SPY and just routinely add to it every month for 30 years.
The very basics of investing are not understood by the vast majority of people.
Let’s be clear here:
Start learning
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
•10-Year Mean: 34.88x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
•10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.91B
•2023: $2.53B
•CAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1.21B
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $661.30💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
32x P/E: $622.40💵 … ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50💵 … ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI
I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
•10-Year Mean: 34.88x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
•10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.91B
•2023: $2.53B
•CAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1.21B
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $661.30💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
32x P/E: $622.40💵 … ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50💵 … ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI
I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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