Offshore
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The Long Investor
$PYPL continues to ride the storm. https://t.co/En4p3hSJ8J
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$PYPL continues to ride the storm. https://t.co/En4p3hSJ8J
$PYPL we are not surprised to see $PYPL battling entirely within the battle zone range.
$67 needs to be flipped to support for the fight to be over. https://t.co/MPaF19IYcr tweet
The Long Investor
This is likely going to be an important 24hrs for the market.
Oil price on watch.
$OXY USOIL $HAL
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This is likely going to be an important 24hrs for the market.
Oil price on watch.
$OXY USOIL $HAL
⚠️ HOSTILE AIRCRAFT INTRUSION ALERTS SOUNDING IN NORTHERN ISRAEL - ISRAEL WAR ROOM ON X tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) on X
⚠️ HOSTILE AIRCRAFT INTRUSION ALERTS SOUNDING IN NORTHERN ISRAEL - ISRAEL WAR ROOM ON X
Offshore
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The Long Investor
GOLD
The last time Gold went this parabolic was:
- Jan 1980
- Sept 2007
- Nov 2011
- May 2020
This is not normal https://t.co/47FSXpBAex
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GOLD
The last time Gold went this parabolic was:
- Jan 1980
- Sept 2007
- Nov 2011
- May 2020
This is not normal https://t.co/47FSXpBAex
tweet
Offshore
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Q-Cap
Because of its franchise model/real estate $MCD Operating Margins are at 47.1% which is higher than Apple , Microsoft, Meta and Google
They have a FCF conversion rate of ~90%
They bought back nearly 50% of their
S/O in the last 20Y
They paid out over $20B in dividends in the last 5Y
Cash Monster
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Because of its franchise model/real estate $MCD Operating Margins are at 47.1% which is higher than Apple , Microsoft, Meta and Google
They have a FCF conversion rate of ~90%
They bought back nearly 50% of their
S/O in the last 20Y
They paid out over $20B in dividends in the last 5Y
Cash Monster
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Offshore
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Brandon Beylo
I'm excited to share a replay of my first podcast conversation with @calvinfroedge.
Calvin is one of the most unique/independent thinkers on this platform.
Our conversations taught me a ton about metals, mining, and energy.
I hope you enjoy it.
https://t.co/xvA7RrBhiX
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I'm excited to share a replay of my first podcast conversation with @calvinfroedge.
Calvin is one of the most unique/independent thinkers on this platform.
Our conversations taught me a ton about metals, mining, and energy.
I hope you enjoy it.
https://t.co/xvA7RrBhiX
tweet
Brandon Beylo
A lot of commodities move/trade on trend-following systems.
Most of these are simple moving average programs that buy when a commodity trades above the 50D or 200D MA.
Look at coffee or cocoa futures.
The same thing can happen to gold, silver, copper, etc.
#Commodities
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A lot of commodities move/trade on trend-following systems.
Most of these are simple moving average programs that buy when a commodity trades above the 50D or 200D MA.
Look at coffee or cocoa futures.
The same thing can happen to gold, silver, copper, etc.
#Commodities
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $ZTS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.12x
•9-Year Mean: 31.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.92%
•9-Year Mean: 3.27%
As you can see, $ZTS appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ZTS is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $2.04B
•Long-Term Debt: $6.59B
$ZTS has a good balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating & 9.85x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 20.8%
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 23.1%
•2023: 25.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 71.7%
•2019: 61.3%
•2020: 50.5%
•2021: 48.9%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 49.8%
$ZTS has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $4.56B
•2023: $8.54B
•CAGR: 6.47%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $497.00M
•2023: $1.62B
•CAGR: 12.54%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.42
•2023: $5.32
•CAGR: 14.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 500.32M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 462.27M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ZTS increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 70.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 36.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2018: $0.50
•2023: $1.50
•CAGR: 24.57%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ZTS has to grow earnings at a 14.06% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.06%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.79 (8.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $6.46 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $7.17 (11.0% YoY)
$ZTS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ZTS ends 2026 with $7.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $229.44💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $215.10💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $200.76💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $193.59💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
26x P/E: $186.42💵 … ~9.2% CAGR
As you can see, at the current price of $150💵, $ZTS has attractive return potential even if we assume ~26x - ~27x earnings
This is more than reasonable given its growth rate, coupled with its wide moat & exemplary capital allocation
Moreover, this is well-below $ZTS historical average of ~31x (~15% below) & near the 25x level where $ZTS has bottomed during numerous corrections & bear markets (as you’ll see the lowest green line in the P/E chart)
$ZTS appears to be a worthwhile investment today at $150💵
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $ZTS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 28.12x
•9-Year Mean: 31.18x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.92%
•9-Year Mean: 3.27%
As you can see, $ZTS appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% LESS in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $ZTS is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $2.04B
•Long-Term Debt: $6.59B
$ZTS has a good balance sheet, a BBB S&P Credit Rating & 9.85x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2018: 20.8%
•2019: 21.4%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 24.1%
•2022: 23.1%
•2023: 25.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2018: 71.7%
•2019: 61.3%
•2020: 50.5%
•2021: 48.9%
•2022: 47.2%
•2023: 49.8%
$ZTS has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $4.56B
•2023: $8.54B
•CAGR: 6.47%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $497.00M
•2023: $1.62B
•CAGR: 12.54%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $1.42
•2023: $5.32
•CAGR: 14.12%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 500.32M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 462.27M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7.6%, $ZTS increased its EPS by ~8.2% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 70.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 36.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.4%
PAID DIVIDENDS✅
•2018: $0.50
•2023: $1.50
•CAGR: 24.57%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~11% MORE in EPS & ~10% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $ZTS has to grow earnings at a 14.06% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (14.06%) required growth rate:
2024E: $5.79 (8.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $6.46 (11.6% YoY)
2026E: $7.17 (11.0% YoY)
$ZTS has a good track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $ZTS ends 2026 with $7.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $229.44💵 … ~17.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $215.10💵 … ~15.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $200.76💵 … ~12.2% CAGR
27x P/E: $193.59💵 … ~10.7% CAGR
26x P/E: $186.42💵 … ~9.2% CAGR
As you can see, at the current price of $150💵, $ZTS has attractive return potential even if we assume ~26x - ~27x earnings
This is more than reasonable given its growth rate, coupled with its wide moat & exemplary capital allocation
Moreover, this is well-below $ZTS historical average of ~31x (~15% below) & near the 25x level where $ZTS has bottomed during numerous corrections & bear markets (as you’ll see the lowest green line in the P/E chart)
$ZTS appears to be a worthwhile investment today at $150💵
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$QQQ
Chart on the 16th of November 2023 and
$QQQ chart today.
6 months later.
Same level, same date.
This is why we are the best in the business https://t.co/qZZYaV0XNZ
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$QQQ
Chart on the 16th of November 2023 and
$QQQ chart today.
6 months later.
Same level, same date.
This is why we are the best in the business https://t.co/qZZYaV0XNZ
$QQQ 5 year projection.
Be ready for the Fed pivot next year for Wave 2.
Otherwise, I am bullish on Tech for the next 5 years. https://t.co/cpnw7xjPDT tweet