The Long Investor
Silver, green already.
Silver is showing its value to the market
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Silver, green already.
Silver is showing its value to the market
Silver moving higher....can it finish Green?
Would be a very big statement. tweet
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The Long Investor (@TheLongInvest) on X
Silver moving higher....can it finish Green?
Would be a very big statement.
Would be a very big statement.
Offshore
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Giuliano
RT @Giuliano_Mana: Charlie Munger said there are two types of knowledge in this world.
To explain it, he used to tell the following story:
Max Planck was the father of quantum mechanics. He was touring through Europe and, once, his chaffeur said to him:
"Would you mind, Professor Planck, if I gave the lecture this time? It's so boring to just sit there"
Planck said that he could. Then the chaffeur gets in front of everybody and gave the whole conference on quantum mechanics. It went perfectly, as he had memorized the speech.
After he finished, a Professor stood up in the public and asked something, to which the chaffeur replied:
"Well, I'm surprised that in an advanced city like Munich I get such an elementary question. I'm going to ask my chaffeur to reply."
The two types of knowledge are Planck's knowledge and the chaffeur's knowledge. Planck had paid the dues and knew the thing. The chaffeur had simply learned to 'prattle the talk'.
It's crucial to detect who has Planck knowledge and deposit confidence and value in them.
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RT @Giuliano_Mana: Charlie Munger said there are two types of knowledge in this world.
To explain it, he used to tell the following story:
Max Planck was the father of quantum mechanics. He was touring through Europe and, once, his chaffeur said to him:
"Would you mind, Professor Planck, if I gave the lecture this time? It's so boring to just sit there"
Planck said that he could. Then the chaffeur gets in front of everybody and gave the whole conference on quantum mechanics. It went perfectly, as he had memorized the speech.
After he finished, a Professor stood up in the public and asked something, to which the chaffeur replied:
"Well, I'm surprised that in an advanced city like Munich I get such an elementary question. I'm going to ask my chaffeur to reply."
The two types of knowledge are Planck's knowledge and the chaffeur's knowledge. Planck had paid the dues and knew the thing. The chaffeur had simply learned to 'prattle the talk'.
It's crucial to detect who has Planck knowledge and deposit confidence and value in them.
tweet
Offshore
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Antonio Linares
RT @alc2022: Here’s the most valuable insight from my entire career in investing:
Why do giants like $WMT, $COST, $AMZN, and $MSFT consistently excel over time?
The answer lies in their culture.
These companies are engines of continuous innovation.
There are moments when their cultural compass might veer off track, but corrections are eventually made.
If the culture declines, the company’s performance follows suit.
Once the cultural issues are addressed, the company returns to prosperity.
A strong culture stems from a combination of exceptional organizational traits.
In my portfolio, companies with robust cultures — a synthesis of various elements — consistently perform well.
Those lacking in this regard ultimately fall behind.
Consider $MSFT as an example.
The stock stagnated from 2000 to 2014.
The reason? Steve Ballmer’s leadership fostered a toxic culture.
It was rife with politics and stifled innovation.
Fear of failure prevailed, stifling the exchange of ideas.
While positive developments circulated rapidly, negative news did not.
Then Satya Nadella stepped in and revolutionized the corporate ethos.
$MSFT embraced a culture of low politics and high meritocracy.
It championed individual bravery — the bravery to innovate, propose ideas, and embrace failure until success was achieved.
Operations became decentralized, allowing both good and bad news to circulate freely.
Suddenly, the company transformed into an indomitable force of innovation.
Don’t just take my word for it. Examine Satya Nadella’s letters to shareholders.
Explore the writings of Jeff Bezos and Sam Walton.
They all grasped this principle.
Their thinking aligned, and their companies mirrored this mindset.
They became relentless hubs of innovation, which is why they continue to outperform against all odds.
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RT @alc2022: Here’s the most valuable insight from my entire career in investing:
Why do giants like $WMT, $COST, $AMZN, and $MSFT consistently excel over time?
The answer lies in their culture.
These companies are engines of continuous innovation.
There are moments when their cultural compass might veer off track, but corrections are eventually made.
If the culture declines, the company’s performance follows suit.
Once the cultural issues are addressed, the company returns to prosperity.
A strong culture stems from a combination of exceptional organizational traits.
In my portfolio, companies with robust cultures — a synthesis of various elements — consistently perform well.
Those lacking in this regard ultimately fall behind.
Consider $MSFT as an example.
The stock stagnated from 2000 to 2014.
The reason? Steve Ballmer’s leadership fostered a toxic culture.
It was rife with politics and stifled innovation.
Fear of failure prevailed, stifling the exchange of ideas.
While positive developments circulated rapidly, negative news did not.
Then Satya Nadella stepped in and revolutionized the corporate ethos.
$MSFT embraced a culture of low politics and high meritocracy.
It championed individual bravery — the bravery to innovate, propose ideas, and embrace failure until success was achieved.
Operations became decentralized, allowing both good and bad news to circulate freely.
Suddenly, the company transformed into an indomitable force of innovation.
Don’t just take my word for it. Examine Satya Nadella’s letters to shareholders.
Explore the writings of Jeff Bezos and Sam Walton.
They all grasped this principle.
Their thinking aligned, and their companies mirrored this mindset.
They became relentless hubs of innovation, which is why they continue to outperform against all odds.
tweet
The Long Investor
Strange statement to make
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Strange statement to make
FDIC CHIEF: US IS READY IF BIG WALL STREET BANK EVER FAILED tweet
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The Long Investor
$PLTR support is not confirmed just yet.
50 MA on the 1hr is still holding this down and weak market sentiment today. https://t.co/WxRhc2WULg
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$PLTR support is not confirmed just yet.
50 MA on the 1hr is still holding this down and weak market sentiment today. https://t.co/WxRhc2WULg
$PLTR not out of danger yet of going lower.
50 MA on the 1hr chart is acting as a resistance
Bulls won't feel comfortable until they flip the 200 MA to support at $24.30 https://t.co/6bn2OyhPmg tweet
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Antonio Linares
About to reach 1000 subs! 🙏
How do you guys like the videos so far? Should I keep making them or change them in some way? https://t.co/0gE4dl5Fuq
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About to reach 1000 subs! 🙏
How do you guys like the videos so far? Should I keep making them or change them in some way? https://t.co/0gE4dl5Fuq
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
•10-Year Mean: 34.88x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
•10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.91B
•2023: $2.53B
•CAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1.21B
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $661.30💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
32x P/E: $622.40💵 … ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50💵 … ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI
I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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A sober valuation analysis on $MSCI 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 37.26x
•10-Year Mean: 34.88x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.94%
•10-Year Mean: 3.39%
As you can see, $MSCI appears to be trading above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~13% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MSCI is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $457.82M
•Long-Term Debt: $4.49B
$MSCI has an ok balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating, & 6.62x FFO Interest Coverate
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 23.4%
•2020: 28.6%
•2021: 26.5%
•2022: 33.0%
•2023: 35.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY🆗
•2019: (463.5%)
•2020: (231.5%)
•2021: (239.3%)
•2022: (148.6%)
•2023: (131.4%)
*ROE negative due to heavy use of debt
$MSCI has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $0.91B
•2023: $2.53B
•CAGR: 10.76%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $280.93M
•2023: $1.21B
•CAGR: 15.75%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $2.16
•2023: $13.52
•CAGR: 20.13%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 121.07M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 79.84M
By reducing its shares outstanding 34%, $MSCI increased its EPS by 51% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 82.3%
•LTM Operating Margins: 54.8%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 45.4%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~13% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MSCI has to grow earnings at an 18.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (18.63%) required growth rate:
2024E: $14.89 (10.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $17.05 (14.5% YoY)
2026E: $19.45 (14.1% YoY)
$MSCI has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but let’s assume $MSCI ends 2026 with $19.45 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
34x P/E: $661.30💵 … ~8.9% CAGR
32x P/E: $622.40💵 … ~6.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $583.50💵 … ~4.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $544.60💵 … ~1.5% CAGR
As you can see, $MSCI appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >34x earnings, leaving us with no margin of safety
Given the multiple expansion over the last 10 years, deteriorating balance sheet, & a reduction in the growth rate, I’d demand greater value from $MSCI
I’d likely get more interested in $MSCI closer to $450💵 or at ~31x earnings (~16.5% below todays price)
#stocks #investing
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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