Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Russia Cuts Rates Below Pre-War Level in Surprise Move
-Massive 1.5% cut in rates on Friday and will consider further reductions in 2H22
-Slower price growth & ruble gains allowed for easing
-Economy is shrinking after sanctions imposed over Ukraine war
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Snap sales and guidance wiped $76 billion from social media stocks overnight $SNAP $META $TWTR $PINS $GOOG

Snapchat parent plummeted 30% in pre trading. Meanwhile, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. fell 4.8%, Alphabet (Google) declined 2.8%, and Pinterest sank 7.1%
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Morning Brew β˜•οΈ
Happy.....Friday......... https://t.co/VnUsHIKaS5
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Compounding Capital
$VZ and $T results past two days are a good reminder why buying on valuation can be dangerous.

Also a good reminder of how investing in a mature, highly competitive industry that's largely commoditized generally doesn't work over time.
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Alex Brogan
The Great Temptation

We haven’t found aliens yet, so what if extraterrestrial intelligence has a deep tendency to be self-limiting or even self-exterminating?

Like getting obsessed with computer games or virtual reality instead of worrying about reproduction.

@h/t primalpoly https://t.co/FsmOMBn3m6
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Typical home sold during 4 weeks ending July 17 spent 19 days on the mkt, one day longer than last year. That’s according to a new report from $rdfn, the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

First time in 2 years median time on market has posted a y/y gain. Will get worse
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Scholz opens to reopening nuclear power plants in Europe... $URNM $CCJ $SMR $UU
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Meb Faber
Investing quote of the day: https://t.co/16YyKpPIwM
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Compounding Capital
$VZ and $TMUS encroaching even more aggressively on cable with FWA net adds ramping.

Assuming $TMUS comes in around 400K FWA net adds, that's 650K total FWA net adds in 2Q 2022.

Cable used to add about 500K HSD subs in 2Q pre-COVID. https://t.co/eE3953a6f9
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
US PMIs crashing, just like Europe. Forward indicators for 3Q22 earnings:
-US July Flash Composite PMI 47.5 vs 52.3
-Employment falls to 54.7 vs 55.7 in June
-Output prices fall vs prior month
-US S&P Global July Services Flash PMI 47; Est. 52.7
- BIG MISS Range from 51.5 to 53.1
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
2Y down by 18 basis points on big PMI miss; dollar sinks vs. euro, creating risk on for commodities
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$TLT baby, munis @JLinWins https://t.co/FLyVmJX2pB
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
The β€œright thing to do” at the moment is to have stronger cash levels and take advantage of higher relative rates in the front-end of global curves, said Jerome Schneider, head of short-term portfolio management and funding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Slowly, the market will realize that collapsing service PMIs will mean much worse 3Q22 earnings than 2Q
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Is the Atlanta Fed now going to show -2.5% GDP for 2Q?
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