Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
The real economy and the stock market are not the same...the business cycle just started to turn lower, whereas stocks (especially tech) have led the decline
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
GERMAN GOVT WILL TAKE 30% STAKE IN UNIPER UNDER BAILOUT DEAL
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Jim OShaughnessy
Two thoughts from Jerry Weintraub

“Do not get attached to the world as it is. Because the world is changing something new is coming.”

“You can't "un-recognize" something”
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Paras Chopra
“To understand or predict what a rat will learn to do in a maze, one has to know both the rat and the maze”

~Mowrer
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Bread Crumbs Research
$NKLA CEO Mark Russell is trying to copy Jeff Bezos 🤷‍♂️ https://t.co/ILtRLySBRu
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$AMEX saw spending on network soar as customers continued travel despite mass cancellations and long waits at airports, leading firm to raise forecast for 22 revenue.
Volumes on the firm’s network jumped to $394.8 billion, topping the $383.3 billion average of analyst estimates.
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Verizon $VZ cut its Adj. EPS guidance for full year; guidance missed the average analyst estimate.

QUARTER
Adj EPS $1.31 vs. $1.39 y/y, est $1.33
Rev $33.8B, +0.1% y/y, est $33.78B

YEAR
-Adj EPS $5.10 to $5.25, saw $5.40 to $5.55, est $5.38
-Wireless rev growth +8.5% to +9.5%
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$TWTR misses on revenue and EPS
Reports 2Q EPS -8c vs consensus 14c, stock down 4% pre
Costs related to pending deal $33mn in 2Q
Revenue $1.18bn, down 1% y/y vs $1.32bn consensus
No guidance

Stock falling despite deal because unaffected px moving lower (in deal break) $FB $SNAP
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
$TWTR, part 2
-Q2 avg US mDAU 196.3 mln, up 17% (meets est)
-Q2 monetizable daily active usage up 16.6% to 237.8 mn
-Q2 advertising revenue up 2% to $1.08 bln
-Q2 costs and expenses up 31% to $1.52 bln
-Q2 SEVERENCE-RELATED COSTS $19M
-maintains termination of merger 'invalid'
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
German 2Y Bond Yield Set for Biggest Drop Since 2008
-EU bonds surge as recession fears cool ECB rate bets
-Composite PMI declines to 49.4, estimate was for 51.0, a 17 month low https://t.co/JnqQXCSPSD
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Russia Cuts Rates Below Pre-War Level in Surprise Move
-Massive 1.5% cut in rates on Friday and will consider further reductions in 2H22
-Slower price growth & ruble gains allowed for easing
-Economy is shrinking after sanctions imposed over Ukraine war
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Special Situations 🌐 Research Newsletter (Jay)
Snap sales and guidance wiped $76 billion from social media stocks overnight $SNAP $META $TWTR $PINS $GOOG

Snapchat parent plummeted 30% in pre trading. Meanwhile, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. fell 4.8%, Alphabet (Google) declined 2.8%, and Pinterest sank 7.1%
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Morning Brew ☕️
Happy.....Friday......... https://t.co/VnUsHIKaS5
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Compounding Capital
$VZ and $T results past two days are a good reminder why buying on valuation can be dangerous.

Also a good reminder of how investing in a mature, highly competitive industry that's largely commoditized generally doesn't work over time.
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Alex Brogan
The Great Temptation

We haven’t found aliens yet, so what if extraterrestrial intelligence has a deep tendency to be self-limiting or even self-exterminating?

Like getting obsessed with computer games or virtual reality instead of worrying about reproduction.

@h/t primalpoly https://t.co/FsmOMBn3m6
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