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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $TDG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 32.04x
โข3-Year Mean: 33.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.28%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.20%
As you can see, $TDG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $TDG is an good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $2.81B
โขLong-Term Debt: $24.00B
$TDG has an ok balance sheet & 1.59x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio (though small, its highest ratio in the past 5 years)
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2021: 9.5%
โข2022: 13.2%
โข2023: 15.9%
โข2024: 18.5%
โขLTM: 19.2%
โข$TDG is a serial acquirer (which usually leads to a lower ROIC) and yet still maintains a fairly attractive ROIC
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โขNegative ROE due to heavy use of debt
$TDG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $2.37B
โข2024: $7.94B
โขCAGR: 12.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $0.51B
โข2024: $1.88B
โขCAGR: 13.93%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $7.76
โข2024: $33.99
โขCAGR: 14.04%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 55.60M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 57.80M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 59.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 45.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 18.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & 3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $TDG has to grow earnings at a 16.02% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.02%) required growth rate:
2025E: $36.96 (8.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $41.92 (13.4% YoY)
2027E: $48.07 (14.7% YoY)
$TDG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $TDG ends 2027 with $48.07 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
33x P/E: $1586๐ต โฆ ~10.6% CAGR
32x P/E: 1538๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
31x P/E: $1490๐ต โฆ ~7.2% CAGR
30x P/E: 1442๐ต โฆ ~5.5% CAGR
29x P/E: $1394๐ต โฆ ~3.7% CAGR
28x P/E: 1345๐ต โฆ ~1.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TDG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >33x EPS (near its 3-year mean) โ however, this leaves us with little margin of safety
On the other hand, current estimates may not accurately reflect future acquisitions, price increases, etc that could increase future growth expectations (a crucial part of $TDG long-term growth track record)
Today at $1295๐ต $TDG appears to be a fair consideration for investment with little margin of safety
I consider $TDG a strong consideration for investment closer to $1150๐ต (11% below todayโs price, 28.45x NTM Est) where I could reasonably expect a ~12% CAGR while relying on a 30x end multiple
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $TDG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 32.04x
โข3-Year Mean: 33.08x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.28%
โข3-Year Mean: 3.20%
As you can see, $TDG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~3% MORE in earnings per share & ~3% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $TDG is an good business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $2.81B
โขLong-Term Debt: $24.00B
$TDG has an ok balance sheet & 1.59x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio (though small, its highest ratio in the past 5 years)
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2021: 9.5%
โข2022: 13.2%
โข2023: 15.9%
โข2024: 18.5%
โขLTM: 19.2%
โข$TDG is a serial acquirer (which usually leads to a lower ROIC) and yet still maintains a fairly attractive ROIC
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โขNegative ROE due to heavy use of debt
$TDG has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $2.37B
โข2024: $7.94B
โขCAGR: 12.85%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $0.51B
โข2024: $1.88B
โขCAGR: 13.93%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $7.76
โข2024: $33.99
โขCAGR: 14.04%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 55.60M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 57.80M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 59.1%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 45.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 18.7%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~3% MORE in EPS & 3% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $TDG has to grow earnings at a 16.02% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.02%) required growth rate:
2025E: $36.96 (8.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $41.92 (13.4% YoY)
2027E: $48.07 (14.7% YoY)
$TDG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $TDG ends 2027 with $48.07 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
33x P/E: $1586๐ต โฆ ~10.6% CAGR
32x P/E: 1538๐ต โฆ ~8.9% CAGR
31x P/E: $1490๐ต โฆ ~7.2% CAGR
30x P/E: 1442๐ต โฆ ~5.5% CAGR
29x P/E: $1394๐ต โฆ ~3.7% CAGR
28x P/E: 1345๐ต โฆ ~1.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TDG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >33x EPS (near its 3-year mean) โ however, this leaves us with little margin of safety
On the other hand, current estimates may not accurately reflect future acquisitions, price increases, etc that could increase future growth expectations (a crucial part of $TDG long-term growth track record)
Today at $1295๐ต $TDG appears to be a fair consideration for investment with little margin of safety
I consider $TDG a strong consideration for investment closer to $1150๐ต (11% below todayโs price, 28.45x NTM Est) where I could reasonably expect a ~12% CAGR while relying on a 30x end multiple
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.88x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.90%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $8.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.33B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 51.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 58.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
โข2014: $1.23B
โข2024: $9.43B
โขCAGR: 22.59%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 392.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.0%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 34.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 29.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & 5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 14.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $28.07 (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $29.84 (13.8% YoY)
2027E: $35.83 (21.3% YoY)
2028E: $40.00 (21.3% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $ASML ends 2028 with $40.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
31x P/E: $1240๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $1200๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $1160๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
28x P/E: $1120๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $1080๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate if we consider its 15.77% EPS CAGR Estimates 2026-2028)
Today at $813๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility & a smaller margin of safety than when it traded for ~26x in May 2025 (when I considered it a โstrong consideration for investmentโ)
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ASML ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.88x
โข10-Year Mean: 31.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 2.90%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $ASML appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~4% MORE in earnings per share & ~5% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ASML is an excellent business (*Financials in USD*)
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short Term Inv: $8.49B
โขLong-Term Debt: $4.33B
$ASML has a strong balance sheet & 68x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 43.8%
โข2022: 48.0%
โข2023: 48.7%
โข2024: 38.3%
โขLTM: 51.8%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 49.0%
โข2022: 59.4%
โข2023: 70.4%
โข2024: 47.4%
โขLTM: 58.2%
$ASML has excellent return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $7.09B
โข2024: $29.28B
โขCAGR: 15.23%
FREE CASH FLOW*
โข $ASML FCF is very sporadic due to heavy capital expenditures & isnโt necessarily the most reliable way to analyze the companyโs value
โข2014: $1.23B
โข2024: $9.43B
โขCAGR: 22.59%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $3.15
โข2024: $20.03
โขCAGR: 20.31%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2018 Shares Outstanding: 426.40M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 392.00M
By reducing its shares outstanding ~8.0%, $ASML increased its EPS by ~8.7% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 52.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 34.8%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 29.3%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~4% MORE in EPS & 5% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ASML has to grow earnings at a 14.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $28.07 (22.0% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $29.84 (13.8% YoY)
2027E: $35.83 (21.3% YoY)
2028E: $40.00 (21.3% YoY)
$ASML has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out so letโs assume $ASML ends 2028 with $40.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
31x P/E: $1240๐ต โฆ ~14.5% CAGR
30x P/E: $1200๐ต โฆ ~13.4% CAGR
29x P/E: $1160๐ต โฆ ~12.2% CAGR
28x P/E: $1120๐ต โฆ ~11.0% CAGR
27x P/E: $1080๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
As you can see, $ASML appears to have attractive return potential if we assume greater or equal to 29x EPS (below its 10-year mean, current multiple, & justified given its quality, moat & growth rate if we consider its 15.77% EPS CAGR Estimates 2026-2028)
Today at $813๐ต $ASML appears to be a good consideration for investment, albeit with extreme volatility & a smaller margin of safety than when it traded for ~26x in May 2025 (when I considered it a โstrong consideration for investmentโ)
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $AMZN ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/OCF Ratio: 14.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.10x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.10%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.60%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued using P/OCF
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in operating cash flow & ~57% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $93.18B
โขLong-Term Debt: $57.92B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 54x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐ / โ
โข2020: 11.6%
โข2021: 8.9%
โข2022: 4.2%
โข2023: 10.1%
โข2024: 15.5%
โขLTM: 15.4%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2020: 27.4%
โข2021: 28.8%
โข2022: (1.9%)
โข2023: 17.5%
โข2024: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.8%
$AMZN has good return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $280.52B
โข2024: $637.96B
โขCAGR: 17.85%
FREE CASH FLOW๐(โ )
โข2019: $21.65B
โข2024: $32.88B
โขCAGR: 8.71%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: $1.15
โข2024: $5.53
โขCAGR: 36.90%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 10.08B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 10.78B
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 49.6%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 11.4%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~56% MORE in OCF & ~57% LESS in FCF per share
Weโre using P/OCF instead of P/E as historical data reveals a stronger correlation between AMZN's share price and Operating Cash Flow (OCF)
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2025 - 2027:
2025E: $13.11 (21% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $16.21 (24% YoY)
2027E: $19.90 (23% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $AMZN ends 2027 with $19.90 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
17x P/OCF: $338.24๐ต โฆ ~21% CAGR
16x P/OCF: $318.34๐ต โฆ ~18% CAGR
15x P/OCF: $298.45๐ต โฆ ~14% CAGR
14x P/OCF: $278.55๐ต โฆ ~11% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have strong double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~15x P/OCF, a multiple thatโs justified given its growth rate & below its historical average
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN LTM:
โ๏ธAWS revenue: $116.38B
๐Ads revenue: $61.23B
Combined, these segments generated $177.61B net revenue โฆ with ~37% Operating Income Margin
Today at $219๐ต $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 39.87x
โขP/E Ratio Mean: 46.42x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.98B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.43B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 52x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
โขLTM: 19.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
โขLTM: 43.8%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 8.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at an 19.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (19.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $44.33 (17.6% YoY)
2026E: $66.58 (50.2% YoY)
2027E: $89.03 (33.7% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $80.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3204๐ต โฆ ~20.2% CAGR
38x P/E: $3044๐ต โฆ ~17.5% CAGR
36x P/E: $2884๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2724๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >34x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat) & 2027 EPS -10% below estimates
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects & scale economies shared that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
These growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a great return
Today I consider $MELI a compelling consideration for investment at $2130๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 39.87x
โขP/E Ratio Mean: 46.42x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.98B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.43B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 52x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
โขLTM: 19.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
โขLTM: 43.8%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 8.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at an 19.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (19.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $44.33 (17.6% YoY)
2026E: $66.58 (50.2% YoY)
2027E: $89.03 (33.7% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $80.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3204๐ต โฆ ~20.2% CAGR
38x P/E: $3044๐ต โฆ ~17.5% CAGR
36x P/E: $2884๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2724๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >34x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat) & 2027 EPS -10% below estimates
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects & scale economies shared that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
These growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a great return
Today I consider $MELI a compelling consideration for investment at $2130๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.20B
โขCAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.20B
โขCAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 39.87x
โขP/E Ratio Mean: 46.42x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.98B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.43B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 52x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
โขLTM: 19.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
โขLTM: 43.8%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 8.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at an 19.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (19.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $44.33 (17.6% YoY)
2026E: $66.58 (50.2% YoY)
2027E: $89.03 (33.7% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $80.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3204๐ต โฆ ~20.2% CAGR
38x P/E: $3044๐ต โฆ ~17.5% CAGR
36x P/E: $2884๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2724๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >34x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat) & 2027 EPS -10% below estimates
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects & scale economies shared that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
These growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a great return
Today I consider $MELI a compelling consideration for investment at $2130๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MELI ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 39.87x
โขP/E Ratio Mean: 46.42x
As you can see, $MELI appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~16% MORE in earnings per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MELI is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.98B
โขLong-Term Debt: $3.43B
$MELI has a strong balance sheet, a BB+ S&P Credit Rating & 52x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: 3.7%
โข2021: 8.1%
โข2022: 14.7%
โข2023: 25.7%
โข2024: 23.0%
โขLTM: 19.7%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐โก๏ธโ
โข2020: (0.1%)
โข2021: 5.2%
โข2022: 28.7%
โข2023: 40.3%
โข2024: 51.5%
โขLTM: 43.8%
$MELI has strong and improved return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2019: $2.30B
โข2024: $20.78B
โขCAGR: 55.30%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2019: $314.29M
โข2024: $7.05B
โขCAGR: 86.32%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2019: ($3.71)
โข2024: $37.69
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2019 Shares Outstanding: 48.69M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 50.70M
MARGINS๐โก๏ธโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 51.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 12.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 8.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~16% MORE in EPS
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MELI has to grow earnings at an 19.94% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (19.94%) required growth rate:
2025E: $44.33 (17.6% YoY)
2026E: $66.58 (50.2% YoY)
2027E: $89.03 (33.7% YoY)
$MELI has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $MELI ends 2027 with $80.12 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
40x P/E: $3204๐ต โฆ ~20.2% CAGR
38x P/E: $3044๐ต โฆ ~17.5% CAGR
36x P/E: $2884๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
34x P/E: $2724๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MELI appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >34x earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate & moat) & 2027 EPS -10% below estimates
$MELI boasts an expansive growth trajectory, fueled by powerful network effects that should drive sustained momentum
Key factors contributing to its promising outlook include ๐
1. Margin expansion
2. Unparalleled access to Latin America's burgeoning economy
3. Network effects & scale economies shared that produce self-reinforcing dynamics ensuring long-term competitiveness, among other things
These growth rates have to be revised down substantially for $MELI to miss the mark, even if the company grows earnings at 25% CAGR over the next 5 years, shareholders will likely end up with a great return
Today I consider $MELI a compelling consideration for investment at $2130๐ต
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.20B
โขCAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $ICE ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 22.13x
โข5-Year Mean: 22.31x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.19%
โข5-Year Mean: 4.83%
As you can see, $ICE appears to be trading slightly near fair value
Going forward, investors can expect to receive about the same in earnings per share & ~7% MORE in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $ICE is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET๐
โขCash & Equivalents: $1.00B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.36B
$ICE has an OK balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating & 5.78x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL๐
โข2020: 7.8%
โข2021: 8.6%
โข2022: 8.3%
โข2023: 7.5%
โข2024: 8.5%
โขLTM: 9.2%
RETURN ON EQUITY๐
โข2020: 11.4%
โข2021: 19.2%
โข2022: 6.6%
โข2023: 10.0%
โข2024: 10.5%
โขLTM: 11.1%
$ICE has decent return metrics as the company relies heavily on acquisitions
REVENUESโ
โข2014: $3.09B
โข2024: $9.28B
โขCAGR: 11.62%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2014: $1.34B
โข2024: $4.20B
โขCAGR: 12.10%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2014: $1.93
โข2024: $6.07
โขCAGR: 12.14%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2014 Shares Outstanding: 573.00M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 576.50M
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 100.0%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 49.4%
โขLTM Gross Margins: 31.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive about the same in EPS & ~7% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $ICE has to grow earnings at an 11.07% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (11.07%) required growth rate:
2025E: $6.93 (14% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $7.66 (11% YoY)
2027E: $8.51 (11% YoY)
2028E: $9.55 (12% YoY)
$ICE has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $ICE ends 2028 with $9.55 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
25x P/E: $238.75๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
24x P/E: $229.20๐ต โฆ ~12.5% CAGR
23x P/E: $219.65๐ต โฆ ~11.1% CAGR
22x P/E: $210.10๐ต โฆ ~9.6% CAGR
21x P/E: $200.55๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume ~23x earnings for $ICE to have double-digit CAGR potential
At 24x - 26x, $ICE can CAGR near the mid-teens
$ICE is a high-quality business with a wide-moat & generates ~65% of total revenue from their exchanges revenue โ the other ~35% from fixed income & data services revenue & mortgage technology
Though $ICE has traded for an average ~22x multiple over the past 5 years, I believe itโs justified for it to trade for 24x - 26x given its predictability & moat, among other things
$ICE is also still founder led โ Jeff Sprecher (Founder & CEO) continues to be a brilliant leader with strategic foresight & a strong track record of executing complex integrations
Today at $162๐ต $ICE appears to be a good consideration for investment with a decent margin of safety
#stocks #investing
___
DISCLOSUREโผ๏ธ: This is NOT Investment Advice. Babylon Capitalยฎ and its representatives may have positions in the securities discussed in this post.
The information contained in this post is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice to meet the specific needs of any individual or situation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Information contained in this post has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to completeness or accuracy.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $BKNG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.72x
โขMean: 20.20x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
โขMean: 5.54%
As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $BKNG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $17.59B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.47B
$BKNG has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 5x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 2.7%
โข2021: 14.2%
โข2022: 29.1%
โข2023: 47.3%
โข2024: 56.2%
โขLTM: 66.0%
$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $9.22B
โข2025E: $26.37B
โขCAGR: 11.08%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $3.03B
โข2025E: $9.26B
โขCAGR: 11.81%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $50.09
โข2025E: $221.12
โขCAGR: 16.00%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 51.59M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 33.25M
By reducing its shares outstanding 35%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 54% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 86.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 19.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 10.86% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than (10.86%) required growth rate:
2025E: $221.12 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $257.18 (16% YoY)
2027E: $298.33 (16% YoY)
2028E: $340.61 (14% YoY)
$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $BKNG ends 2028 with $340.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $7834๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
22x P/E: $7493๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $7152๐ต โฆ ~11.5% CAGR
20x P/E: $6812๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
19x P/E: $6471๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >22x earnings, a valuation near where it trades for today & a multiple justified by its growth rate and wide moat
Today at $5154๐ต $BKNG appears to be a fair consideration for investment
Iโd consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $4750 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 8% below todayโs share price or closer to 20x NTM estimates
This is where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a more conservative 20x 2028 earnings estimates, ensuring a substantial margin of safety & leaving room for potential multiple expansion
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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A quality valuation analysis on $BKNG ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.72x
โขMean: 20.20x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
โขMean: 5.54%
As you can see, $BKNG appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~7% LESS in earnings per share & ~2% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $BKNG is a great business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $17.59B
โขLong-Term Debt: $17.47B
$BKNG has a strong balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 5x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2020: 2.7%
โข2021: 14.2%
โข2022: 29.1%
โข2023: 47.3%
โข2024: 56.2%
โขLTM: 66.0%
$BKNG has strong ROIC, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2015: $9.22B
โข2025E: $26.37B
โขCAGR: 11.08%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2015: $3.03B
โข2025E: $9.26B
โขCAGR: 11.81%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2015: $50.09
โข2025E: $221.12
โขCAGR: 16.00%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2015 Shares Outstanding: 51.59M
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 33.25M
By reducing its shares outstanding 35%, $BKNG increased its EPS by 54% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 86.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 33.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 19.2%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~7% LESS in EPS & ~2% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $BKNG has to grow earnings at a 10.86% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than (10.86%) required growth rate:
2025E: $221.12 (26% YoY) *FY Dec
2026E: $257.18 (16% YoY)
2027E: $298.33 (16% YoY)
2028E: $340.61 (14% YoY)
$BKNG has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโs assume $BKNG ends 2028 with $340.61 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
23x P/E: $7834๐ต โฆ ~14.6% CAGR
22x P/E: $7493๐ต โฆ ~13.1% CAGR
21x P/E: $7152๐ต โฆ ~11.5% CAGR
20x P/E: $6812๐ต โฆ ~9.8% CAGR
19x P/E: $6471๐ต โฆ ~8.1% CAGR
As you can see, $BKNG appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >22x earnings, a valuation near where it trades for today & a multiple justified by its growth rate and wide moat
Today at $5154๐ต $BKNG appears to be a fair consideration for investment
Iโd consider $BKNG a great purchase closer to $4750 (~18.50x multiple) roughly 8% below todayโs share price or closer to 20x NTM estimates
This is where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR assuming a more conservative 20x 2028 earnings estimates, ensuring a substantial margin of safety & leaving room for potential multiple expansion
#stocks #investing
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MNST ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 26.71x
โข10-Year Mean: 33.16x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.36%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $MNST appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~24% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MNST is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0
$MNST has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 33.7%
โข2020: 31.5%
โข2021: 27.4%
โข2022: 22.4%
โข2023: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 28.5%
โข2020: 30.2%
โข2021: 23.5%
โข2022: 17.5%
โข2023: 21.4%
โขLTM: 21.0%
$MNST has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $2.25B
โข2023: $7.14B
โขCAGR: 12.24%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $301.27M
โข2023: $1.49B
โขCAGR: 17.38%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $0.34
โข2023: $1.54
โขCAGR: 16.30%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.04B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 53.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 28.2%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 22.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~24% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MNST has to grow earnings at a 13.36% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (13.36%) required growth rate:
2024E: $1.78 (15.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $2.04 (14.4% YoY)
2026E: $2.31 (13.3% YoY)
$MNST has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $MNST ends 2026 with $2.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $73.92๐ต โฆ ~17.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $69.30๐ต โฆ ~14.8% CAGR
29x P/E: $66.99๐ต โฆ ~13.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $64.68๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MNST appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume 28x earnings, a multiple substantially below its 5-year mean (32.24x) & 10-year mean (33.16x)
Today at $49๐ต $MNST appears to be an attractive consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MNST ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 26.71x
โข10-Year Mean: 33.16x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 3.36%
โข10-Year Mean: 3.05%
As you can see, $MNST appears to be trading below fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~24% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share ๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MNST is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.56B
โขLong-Term Debt: $0
$MNST has an excellent balance sheet
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2019: 33.7%
โข2020: 31.5%
โข2021: 27.4%
โข2022: 22.4%
โข2023: 24.3%
โขLTM: 24.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2019: 28.5%
โข2020: 30.2%
โข2021: 23.5%
โข2022: 17.5%
โข2023: 21.4%
โขLTM: 21.0%
$MNST has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUESโ
โข2013: $2.25B
โข2023: $7.14B
โขCAGR: 12.24%
FREE CASH FLOWโ
โข2013: $301.27M
โข2023: $1.49B
โขCAGR: 17.38%
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2013: $0.34
โข2023: $1.54
โขCAGR: 16.30%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.04B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 53.5%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 28.2%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 22.8%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~24% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MNST has to grow earnings at a 13.36% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (13.36%) required growth rate:
2024E: $1.78 (15.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $2.04 (14.4% YoY)
2026E: $2.31 (13.3% YoY)
$MNST has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $MNST ends 2026 with $2.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $73.92๐ต โฆ ~17.8% CAGR
30x P/E: $69.30๐ต โฆ ~14.8% CAGR
29x P/E: $66.99๐ต โฆ ~13.3% CAGR
28x P/E: $64.68๐ต โฆ ~11.7% CAGR
As you can see, $MNST appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume 28x earnings, a multiple substantially below its 5-year mean (32.24x) & 10-year mean (33.16x)
Today at $49๐ต $MNST appears to be an attractive consideration for investment
#stocks #investing
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๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ: ๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐. ๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐๐ฏ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ.
๐๐ก๐ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐๐๐ข๐๐ข๐ ๐ง๐๐๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐จ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐๐๐ญ ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐, ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ.
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