🖥 Continuing Our Review of the CoinMarketCap (CMS) Report

In the first post, we discussed the most interesting events of the first half of 2024.

In the second post, we touched upon the market sentiments.

In the third post, we explored the state of each sector.

Today, let’s delve into the factors that could influence the future development of the cryptocurrency market ▶️

🇺🇸 US Politics

Recent developments in US politics have highlighted a significant shift regarding cryptocurrencies 🇺🇸

There are several reasons for this:

1️⃣ Increased Political Influence

The industry has scored victories in Washington, increasing political spending to $80 million for the 2024 elections.

Crypto-focused PACs like Fairshake have raised about $85 million and supported crypto-friendly candidates, including Republican Mark Messmer.

2️⃣ Bipartisan Support

Crypto-friendly legislation has garnered bipartisan support.

For instance, the House of Representatives passed a cryptocurrency regulation bill with the support of Democrats. The Senate also passed a resolution to repeal SEC crypto guidelines.

3️⃣ Changing Administration Stance

The Biden administration has shown a willingness to engage with the crypto industry and wants to work with Congress on crypto policy 👤

4️⃣ Republican Alignment

Republicans, including Donald Trump, are increasingly aligning with the crypto industry, accepting crypto donations.

🌐 Global Crypto Regulation

Governments worldwide are developing new rules for cryptocurrencies ✉️

IOSCO has recommended global standards, and the World Economic Forum's initiative analyzes national regulatory outcomes.

The need for regulation has increased following bank collapses linked to crypto activities 📉

Three important questions for crypto regulation arise:

❓ Where Will Bitcoin Be Stored?

More than 1 million bitcoins are now held in ETFs. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US on January 10, 2024, over 70 such ETFs have appeared globally, attracting more than $28 billion in investments.

🪙The total value of bitcoins in these ETFs exceeds $72 billion.

More than 1,000 institutions hold Bitcoin ETFs in the US, totaling over $11.5 billion. Most of these are hedge funds and asset managers like Millennium Management and Jane Street Group.

❓ Will Coinbase Become a Super Company?

Coinbase provides custodial services for 7 out of the 10 largest Bitcoin ETFs in the US and now controls 78% of the total institutional assets by AUM. Along with its existing crypto exchange business, Coinbase-related wallets now hold a significant amount of bitcoin (about 1.2 million BTC, or 6% of the circulating supply).

❓ How Much Will the Ethereum ETF Market Grow?

On May 23, 2024, the SEC approved spot Ethereum ETFs in the US, leading to a 17.7% increase in ETH price that day. How big is the Ethereum ETF market, and how will it impact ETH price?

🔷Analysts estimate that net inflows into US-listed spot Ethereum ETFs will be around $5 billion over the first four months.

Thus...

The CMC report covers the past, present, and future, providing valuable insights to make our understanding of the crypto world more informed and strategic 🌐

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🔈 Statements of the FBI Director at the US Congressional Hearings

Recently, the US Congress held hearings where FBI Director Christopher Wray made several important statements.

In particular, he discussed the investigation of the incident involving the assassination attempt on US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

⚠️ Preparation and Actions of Thomas Matthew Crooks

According to Wray, Thomas Matthew Crooks, who shot at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, searched online a week before the attempt for information on how far Lee Harvey Oswald was when he shot President John F. Kennedy in 1963. This may indicate his preparation for the attack.

Wray stated at the hearings of the House Judiciary Committee:

"I can say, and I think this hasn't been publicly announced yet, the following: we only discovered in the last couple of days <...> as a result of analyzing the laptop associated with the shooter, that on July 6, he searched on Google for the answer to the question of how far Oswald was from Kennedy."

On the day of the assassination attempt, July 6, Crooks registered to participate in the rally with Trump in Butler and launched a drone to fly around the rally area.

The drone was in the air for 11 minutes, and Crooks monitored its flight from his phone. Investigators believe that Crooks used the drone to see what was happening behind him.

❗️ Historical Reference

To understand the context, it's important to remember that the 35th President of the United States, John F. Kennedy, was killed in Dallas on November 22, 1963, during a campaign trip to Texas.

The official commission concluded that the incident was the work of lone shooter Lee Harvey Oswald, who fired from the sixth floor of the Texas School Book Depository.

💬 Unanswered Questions

Despite the importance of the presented facts, equally interesting were the moments when the FBI director dodged questions from a congressman from Florida, who asked questions unrelated to Donald Trump.

The questions concerned President Biden's cognitive issues 👤:

⚫️ Did the head of intelligence know about these problems?

⚫️ If Biden cannot be a candidate, how can he be president?

⚫️ Who is really running the country?

These facts only underscore the complexity and ambiguity of the current political situation in the USA 🇺🇸

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Binance Half-Year Report 2024

On July 16, 2024, one of the largest cryptocurrency platforms, Binance, released its half-year report.

Let's dive into the highlights:

🔸 Strong Start for Layer-1 (L1)

Bitcoin😀 continues to gain market share thanks to the fourth halving, the launch of the Runes Protocol, and the approval of U.S. spot ETFs, which have attracted over $14 billion.

Ethereum😀 has seen explosive growth in restaking and the EIP-4844 update, while BNB Chain continued work on opBNB and Greenfield.

Meanwhile, Solana 😀 has stood out in the memecoin space and launched blockchain links ("blinks").

🔸 Airdrop Season in Layer-2 (L2)

The first half of 2024 has been the season of airdrops in the L2 world, especially for zero knowledge (zk) projects.

These incentives have attracted large inflows of capital onto L2 chains, increasing the total value locked (TVL) to $43 billion, representing a 90% growth in just six months.

🔸 Sharp Rise in DeFi

2024 has seen a substantial influx of capital into decentralized finance (DeFi), driving TVL up 72.8% to $94.1 billion from the start of the year.

This growth has benefited nearly every DeFi sector, from major to niche markets, leading to the emergence of protocols that make previously inaccessible financial primitives available on-chain.

🔸 Stablecoin Market Rebounds

The stablecoin market 💵 has staged a significant turnaround, now just 14.5% shy of the peak in April 2022, before the TerraUSD (UST) crash.

As of June 30, 2024, the market capitalization of stablecoins was $161 billion, a two-year high.

While Tether's USDT continues to dominate, the market share of Circle's USDC and Ethena's USDe has also increased.

🔸 Turbulent NFT Market

NFT markets experienced turbulence in the first half of the year, with sales volumes declining and major projects seeing over 50% drops in floor price.

Blur continued its dominance, driven by the Blast token airdrop, while Bitcoin NFTs also continued to attract attention.

🔸 Development in SocialFi

SocialFi continued to develop:

⚫️Lens Protocol announced its new zk chain, Lens Network.
⚫️Farcaster saw continued user growth following the launch of Frames.
⚫️friend.tech released its token and v2 version.
⚫️The Fantasy.top trading card game was also a notable highlight.

🔸 Web3 Gaming

The Web3 gaming sector had a strong Q1, but Q2 saw gaming project tokens drop significantly in market capitalization alongside the rest of the altcoin market.

However, user growth metrics have been healthier than ever, with projects like Pixels and Hamster Kombat 🐹 attracting large numbers of players with the promise of token airdrops.

🔸 What's Next?

In the second half of 2024, we anticipate significant progress in six key areas, including macroeconomic factors, the Bitcoin ecosystem, ownership economy applications, real-world assets (RWAs), and more.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

💸 Black Monday for Bitcoin: Possible Reasons for the Correction

On the afternoon of August 5, 2024, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $49,729. It has since recovered slightly to just above $55,000 📊

However, CryptoQuant warns of a possible decline in BTC to $40,000.

Peter Schiff, in his tweet on "X," called this correction "Cryptocurrency Black Monday" 📉

He also wrote:

"Bitcoin will drop even further at the opening of the US stock market as investors start selling Bitcoin ETF shares. My prediction is coming true. Gold wins over BTC."

Let's explore the possible reasons for Bitcoin's decline:

1️⃣ Rising Unemployment Rate in the US

On Friday, the US unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, higher than expected.

A high unemployment rate indicates a potential recession, causing both the stock market and cryptocurrencies to crash.

Economic instability forces investors to seek safe-haven assets, negatively impacting the demand for cryptocurrencies ⬇️

2️⃣ Strengthening Japanese Yen

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, leading to an outflow of investments from US assets and other risk-on assets 🇯🇵

Previously, borrowing yen was cost-free, but now that has changed, making US investments less attractive.

3️⃣ Fear of World War III

In 2024, fears of World War III have surged for the fifth time.

During such times, investors avoid risk-on assets, leading to mass sell-offs.

The US, UK, and several other countries have urged their citizens to leave Lebanon immediately, adding tension to global markets and increasing volatility.

4️⃣ Mt. Gox and Genesis Sales

The distribution of BTC by the Mt. Gox exchange is nearing its end, while Genesis payments are just beginning.

On Friday, more than $1.5 billion worth of BTC and ETH was distributed, which the market perceived as a potential upcoming dump.

Investors fear that large amounts of cryptocurrencies could be sold on the market, leading to further price declines 📉

5️⃣ The 'Crash' of Amazon and Intel

There is widespread discussion online about the "AI bubble" and a repeat of the "Dotcom bubble" due to weak earnings reports from American tech giants.

Poor financial results from Amazon and Intel are causing market concerns and increasing negative sentiment among investors.

6️⃣ Crisis in Asian Stock Markets

The Bank of Japan's rate hike has led to the strengthening of the yen and a decrease in risk-on assets 💸

Asian indexes are falling, creating additional pressure on global markets.

7️⃣ Decreasing Odds of Donald Trump's Victory in Presidential Elections

According to Polymarket data, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have roughly equal chances of winning 🇺🇸

Political uncertainty and potential changes in US policy are causing investor concerns, leading to decreased demand for cryptocurrencies.

8️⃣ ETH Sales by Major Players

Over the weekend, news emerged about ETH sales by Jump Trading and rumors from Arthur Hayes.

Large ETH sales are putting pressure on the cryptocurrency market, leading to further sell-offs among investors fearing price drops 💸

‼️ Conclusion

As we can see, the reasons for Bitcoin's decline are multifaceted and related to global economic and political factors.

We will continue to monitor developments and hope for a recovery 📈

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🇺🇳 UN Demographic Projections from 2024 to the Distant 2100

Demographic changes have a significant impact on global markets and the economy.

Let's dive into what the latest wave of data from the UN reveals.

🖥 The world population will peak slightly earlier

According to the latest UN projections, the global population will peak in 2084 at just under 10.3 billion people.

📉 Falling fertility rates are slowing population growth

The rate of global population growth is slowing due to a significant reduction in fertility rates.

Since the 1960s, the average fertility rate has more than halved from over 5 children per woman to 2.3.

In some regions, this figure is already below 2 children per woman.

🇨🇳 China and India 🇮🇳

China's population has already peaked and is now declining.

India is projected to overtake China to become the world's most populous country by 2023.

This is due to a sharp drop in China's fertility rates, which have long been below the replacement level.

🇿🇦 Expected population growth in Africa

Fertility rates in Africa remain high but are gradually declining.

In the 1970s, the rate was almost 7 children per woman, whereas today it stands at around 4.

The UN expects this figure to continue dropping to below 3 by 2050 and approach 2 by the end of the century.

❤️‍🩹 Life expectancy is recovering

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant increase in mortality and a decline in life expectancy worldwide.

However, in 2022, life expectancy returned to 2019 levels and continued to rise in 2023.

🗣️ Key insights:

Here are the UN statistics projected for 2100:

1️⃣ By 2084, the world population will peak at 10.4 billion people (currently 8.2 billion).

2️⃣ Every third person in the world will live in Africa.

3️⃣ The population of Europe will decrease from 740 million today to 610 million people.

4️⃣ The US and Canada will grow from 380 million today to 460 million people (+21%).

5️⃣ Asia's population will peak at 5.3 billion people in 2050.

6️⃣ Russia's population will decrease from 143 million today to 126 million people.

Of course, 2100 is still far away, and it is impossible to predict all the events that could impact these statistics and change the forecasts 📊

⌛️ Economic, social, and environmental factors can significantly alter the demographic landscape in the future, so it’s important to keep this in mind.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑