US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to lose money — on Thursday, $410.4m flowed out of the funds. The week is already down $375m, and if there are no inflows on Friday, this will be the fourth consecutive week of outflows.
AUM has fallen to ~$80bn versus a peak of nearly $170bn in October 2025.
The bank cut its 2026 BTC target from $150K to $100K and allows for a drop to $50K before recovery.
For ETH, the forecast is $1,400 at the bottom and $4,000 by year-end.
The wording is tough: “capitulation” is possible in the coming months.
— BlackRock IBIT: −$157.6m
— Fidelity FBTC: −$104.1m
— Ether ETF: −$113m in one day
— XRP ETF: first outflows since February 3
— Solana ETF — the only one in positive territory (+$2.7m)
CryptoQuant believes the key support is around $55K. Cycle indicators are in a bearish phase, but not in “extreme bear,” which historically precedes the final bottom.
BTC is trading around $66K, LTHs are selling near breakeven. Historically, final reversals formed when long-term holders were down −30–40%.
ETF capital is leaving, banks are cutting targets, the cycle remains bearish.
There are no signs of panic capitulation yet — which means the market may require an even more painful flush before a real reversal.
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BTC started the year around $87.7K and has already dropped to ~$68K. A −22.3% drawdown — and the market is balancing on the edge of the weakest first quarter in eight years.
— 2018: −49.7% in Q1
— 2020: −10.8%
— 2025: −11.8%
— 2026: already −22% and the month isn’t even closed
Bitcoin declined in 7 of the last 13 first quarters. Q1 volatility is classic. But the current dynamics once again bring back bear market rhetoric.
BTC already closed January at −10.2%.
February is currently at −13.4%.
To avoid the first “double red start of the year” in history, price needs to reclaim $80K before month-end. For now, that looks like an ambitious task.
Some analysts view what’s happening as a standard correction phase amid macro pressure. Historically, BTC often showed weakness at the start of the year and recovered later — especially in the context of institutional demand and halving cycles.
But the fact remains:
fifth consecutive week of decline, −2.3% in 24 hours, pressure is not easing.
Q1 may go down as the worst since 2018. For now, it looks like a deep correction, but if February closes in the red — the market’s psychological backdrop could become even heavier.
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Amid the boom of AI data centers, the debate over energy consumption has flared up again. Critics lump AI infrastructure and Bitcoin mining together, claiming they overload grids and drive up electricity prices.
But investment firm Paradigm offers a different perspective.
In a study, Paradigm analysts Justin Slaughter and Veronica Irwin argue:
mining is mistakenly treated as a constant “energy drain.”
In reality, miners:
— operate under market competition
— respond to electricity prices
— scale their load depending on grid conditions
In other words, this is not fixed consumption, but flexible demand.
According to Paradigm:
— Bitcoin mining consumes about 0.23% of global energy
— accounts for roughly 0.08% of global emissions
In addition, Bitcoin issuance is fixed, and miner rewards decrease approximately every 4 years. This means long-term growth in energy consumption is limited by the network’s economics.
🔌 Flexible load instead of overload
Miners typically:
— connect to cheap, excess generation
— increase consumption when there is surplus energy
— shut down during grid stress
Unlike AI data centers, which require stable and continuous power, mining can quickly reduce load. Paradigm compares it to industrial facilities that respond to dynamic pricing.
Interestingly, part of the crypto infrastructure is already pivoting to AI computing for higher margins. Companies such as Hut 8, HIVE Digital, MARA, TeraWulf, and IREN are partially shifting toward AI data processing.
Paradigm shifts the focus of the discussion:
the issue is not “moral panic” over consumption, but the economics of power grids.
If mining is evaluated not as a static consumer, but as a controllable load, its role in the energy system looks different — more like a balancing tool than a source of crisis.
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Traders are building scenarios in case $70,000 remains an unbreakable level. The market is gradually shifting focus downward — toward the $58,000–$65,000 zone as the last line of defense for the bulls.
Right now BTC is trading between:
— the 200-week SMA at $68,300
— the 200-week EMA at $58,400
According to analyst Jelle, in previous cycles major bottoms formed precisely between these two moving averages. This suggests that base formation may already be underway.
But Rekt Capital warns: two consecutive weekly closes above the 200W EMA guarantee nothing.
Without upward momentum, the risk of another breakdown below the EMA remains.
1️⃣ $60,000 — the first magnet if $66,000 breaks, according to Ted Pillows’ scenario
2️⃣ $55,000 — the realized price level, if support at $63K–$65K is lost
3️⃣ $52,500 — the next stop in case of capitulation below $60K
At the same time, there is an unfilled CME gap at $80K–$84K above — historically, 9 out of 10 gaps since August 2025 have been filled. This remains a potential rebound target.
Glassnode points to a dense long-term holder buy zone between $63K and $65K (≈372,240 BTC).
If this range breaks decisively, the path to $55K opens with little meaningful resistance.
As long as $70K acts as resistance, the structure remains bearish.
Bulls need to reclaim $71K on a daily close, otherwise the market will continue searching for liquidity lower.
There is hope — but only if $65K holds. If not, the next act of this play will unfold in the $50K–$60K range.
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US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to drain liquidity. Amid “Extreme Fear,” BTC dipped below $66K again.
— −$133.3M recorded on Wednesday
— −$238M already since the start of the week
— BlackRock’s IBIT lost over $84M
— If Thursday and Friday don’t reverse the trend, this will mark the first 5-week outflow streak since March 2025
Year-to-date, funds are down around ~$2.5B. AUM has shrunk to $83.6B. Volumes remain weak — under $3B. The market isn’t just afraid, it’s frozen.
🧊 Solana Moves Against the Tide
While BTC and ETH are losing ground, Solana ETFs are holding a 6-day inflow streak. Since launch in October 2025, nearly $700M is under management. However, February is weak — just $9M in inflows versus $105M in January.
BTC is down −24% year-to-date. The Fear & Greed Index remains stuck in panic territory.
Standard Chartered outlines a $50K scenario before a potential recovery toward $100K in 2026.
More interestingly, CryptoQuant notes that BTC’s short-term Sharpe ratio has dropped into a zone that historically aligned with “generational” entry points.
ETF flows suggest institutions are not rushing in to rescue the market. But risk metrics hint that panic itself could become fuel for a sharp reversal.
One question remains: is this calm before another dump — or before a powerful short squeeze?
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BTC is down −46% from its October high of $126K to around ~$67K. The community is searching for someone to blame — and the quantum computer narrative has resurfaced. Bitcoin developer Matt Corallo argues this is simply a convenient excuse for weak price action.
— If the market were truly pricing in quantum risk, ETH would be rising against BTC. But Ethereum itself is down ~−58% since October.
— Market makers do not see quantum threats as a short-term factor. It’s a multi-year horizon risk, not a matter of months.
— The real driver is capital competition: AI is pulling trillions into chips, data centers, and infrastructure.
— The Ethereum Foundation is already discussing post-quantum readiness.
— BlackRock added a quantum risk disclosure to IBIT documents.
— Some analysts believe the risk should already be discounted in prices.
Conclusion: the market isn’t falling because of a “future hack,” but because of a narrative shift and capital rotation. AI is happening now. Bitcoin must once again prove it is the main beneficiary of the cycle.
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Bitcoin closed the week below $65K, setting a local low at $64,258. Market consensus says this is not the bottom yet. Fear is at extremes, and $50K–$52K targets are back in play.
— Volume is rising on falling price — a classic bearish signal.
— Exchange Whale Ratio hit 70%: whales are actively moving BTC to exchanges.
— 24-hour liquidations — nearly $500m. Pressure isn’t easing.
— Historically, Whale Ratio above 70% preceded major selloffs.
— Old coins are returning to exchanges.
— Analysts expect a “flush” toward $60K with risk of a spike down to $50K.
— BTC closed below the AVWAP from the 2024 halving.
— A similar signal last appeared in May 2022 — before a deep bear phase.
— CryptoQuant indicators remain in the “bear market” zone.
— Fear & Greed Index dropped to 5/100 — extreme fear.
— Market has stayed in “Extreme Fear” longer than in 2022.
— “People have given up,” analysts say.
— Tariff wars and tensions around Iran.
— Inflation data (PPI, PCE) again above expectations.
— Markets are on edge; stocks and crypto under pressure.
While some expect a bounce to $76K–$78K, others believe the real test lies ahead — $60K and possibly $50K.
Panic is extreme. But historically, reversals often begin in such zones.
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Bitcoin from $126K down to ~$63K. ETFs are recording outflows, the market is talking about an “institutional exit.” EMJ Capital sees it differently: this is not a collapse — it’s a filtering out of weak hands.
— BTC is moving in sync with IGV (the tech-software ETF from BlackRock).
— “This is not a store of value — it’s high-beta tech with a different logo.”
— In this cycle, institutions became the marginal buyer, while retail rotated into tech stocks.
— 2017: retail sold at $20K.
— 2021: funds sold at $69K.
— 2025–2026: ETF allocators are selling at $63K.
— Every cycle, weak hands exit, and they are replaced by longer-duration capital.
1
Jackson believes the current “institutional exit” will be replaced by a new wave — players ready to hold BTC for decades, not quarters.
The question now is not whether BTC is falling. The question is who will be holding it in the next cycle.
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BTC returned to $65–66K amid a rebound in the stock market. Nasdaq +1.05%, S&P 500 +0.68% — risk is being switched back on. But the key point — divergence from gold and equities may play in Bitcoin’s favor.
— The Coinbase Premium Index turned positive for the first time since January 15 — “US buyers are returning.”
— ETFs recorded +$258M in net inflows.
— BTC correlation with the S&P 500 is just 0.32, with gold — −0.45 (the lowest since 2022).
— Over 6 months: gold +51%, S&P +7%, BTC −43%.
— Historically, such gaps do not last long — the asset “catches up.”
— Analysts see potential for “significant upside” if correlations return to normal.
— QCP Capital: this is not a narrative failure, but the effect of position and liquidity unwinding.
— Bitcoin remains an inflation hedge and a form of collateral.
— Institutional adoption in 2025 has only strengthened.
The gap is too large to be permanent.
The question — is this the start of a catch-up rally or just a pause before new pressure?
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BTC pushed past $69,500 as US equities turned green on policy clarity and strong earnings. With risk appetite back, is $70K next?
— Spot ETFs saw $257.7M in inflows, ending five straight weeks of $3.8B in outflows.
— Fidelity added ~$83M, BlackRock’s IBIT nearly $79M.
— Coinbase Premium and rising CVD signal strong spot demand.
— Open interest stabilized around 235K BTC (down from >240K).
— Funding remains slightly negative (−0.0037%) — shorts are paying longs.
— The rally is driven by spot, not aggressive leverage buildup.
— Trump’s address highlighted falling mortgage rates and a 1.7% drop in core inflation over late 2025.
— Positive dealer gamma may smooth volatility and slow sharp breakouts.
— Strong bids absorbed selling at $60–63K; BTC is now ~8% higher from that zone.
Leverage has been flushed, and spot buyers are stepping in. If sell pressure stays muted, $70K becomes the logical next target.
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The number of wallets holding ≥100 BTC is approaching 20,000. Currently at 19,993 addresses, each worth roughly $6.71M at current prices. Santiment expects the milestone to be reached soon.
— More 100+ BTC wallets = less extreme top consolidation.
— Reduced risk of a small whale group dominating price swings.
— After a −47% drop from $126K to ~$67K, large holders accumulating can be a bullish sign.
— The overall supply share of this cohort hasn’t changed much.
— New wallets are hitting 100 BTC while some long-term holders are selling.
— That’s why price remains suppressed.
— Will Clemente suggests OG holders may be done selling aggressively.
— Michaël van de Poppe says BTC needs to form a higher low to resume the uptrend.
Distribution is improving, but supply pressure isn’t gone.
If 20K wallets is breached, it could mark the next accumulation phase.
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Bitcoin survived the Iran flare-up without a full-blown sell-off. Local low near ~$63K, followed by a bounce. Yet bearish macro targets remain intact.
— ~$300M in long liquidations — painful but contained.
— Support held in the $61–63K zone; traders eye longs around $60–62K.
— Risk of a $74K bull trap before another leg down.
— 2022 patterns resurface: rising open interest while price falls — shorts building.
— Filbfilb’s trendline points to $40–45K if weekly closes lose the key band.
— $45K gaining traction as a macro bottom target.
— WTI +7% on headlines; markets on edge.
— Full Strait of Hormuz closure = oil >$100, US CPI near 5%.
— Many analysts insist: “This is not World War Three.”
— 3 straight days of >$1B inflows last week.
— First “meaningful” accumulation since October.
— Historically, rising ETF demand supports price.
Markets are in limbo: geopolitics pressures, but no capitulation yet. If inflation stays contained — BTC stabilizes. If oil spikes — $50K–45K comes back into focus.
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