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🟠 Mining stocks rise as hashrate drops amid U.S. winter storm

A harsh winter played into the hands of large miners. While part of the network went offline to stabilize the power grid, those who stayed online faced less competition and higher profitability.

📈 Market reaction

— TeraWulf +11%
— IREN +14%
— Cipher Mining +13%
The stock rally coincided with a sharp drop in network pressure.

❄️ What happened to the network
— Hashrate fell to 663 EH/s — a 7-month low
— More than a 40% drop in just two days
— By Wednesday, recovery to 814 EH/s, but still below the previous ~1.1 ZH/s

Fewer miners online = less competition for blocks = higher margins.

💰 Profitability is rising

— Hashprice increased from $0.038 → $0.040 per TH/s per day
— For large, well-prepared players, this directly boosts revenue

⚡️ Who cut production
Due to stress on power grids, several companies temporarily reduced output:
— CleanSpark: 22 → 12 BTC/day
— Riot Platforms: 16 → 3 BTC
— Marathon Digital: 45 → 7 BTC
— IREN: 18 → 6 BTC

🧊 Weaker players under pressure
Braiins noted that extreme cold hits poorly prepared farms hardest:
— equipment damage during abrupt restarts
— ventilation and temperature control issues
— mistakes caused by haste and underinvestment in infrastructure

📌 Conclusion

The winter storm became a real stress test for the industry. Large and efficient miners gained an advantage, while weaker players were pushed out. For the market, this is a classic case: temporary network disruptions redistribute profitability in favor of the strongest.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin lost the key $84k support. What’s next?

That’s it. $84k didn’t hold — a level that had supported price since November gave way with barely a fight. BTC dipped to $81k, and this is no longer “noise” — it’s a clean break in market structure.

💥 What happened

— Price dropped to ~$81k
— Long liquidations: $1.6bn total, $750m in BTC
— Broken levels: 2026 yearly open ($87k), 100DMA, and the $84–86k demand zone

The market switched to “preserve capital,” not “buy the dip.”

😱 Sentiment is wrecked
Fear & Greed Index = 16 (extreme fear).
We’ve seen this only after FTX and during deep bear phases.

Timothy Peterson puts it bluntly:
as long as consumer sentiment is at historic lows, there will be no upside cycle. In this environment, people don’t buy risk — even if it looks “cheap.”

📉 Where price could be pushed
Scenarios are getting less optimistic:

— $74–75k — local spring 2025 low
— $69k — 2021 ATH, psychological level
— $58k — 200-week SMA (classic bear-market bottom zone)
— $50k — worst case if downside accelerates

Many analysts agree:
2026 increasingly looks like a bear year, not “just a correction.”

🧠 Important
Yes, short-term bounces from local lows are possible.
Yes, there will be “hope,” RSI signals, divergences, and tweets about “capitulation.”

But as long as:
— liquidity hasn’t returned
— macro pressure persists
— sentiment is on the floor

any upside is a downtrend rally, not the start of a new cycle.

📌 Conclusion

Losing $84k is not just losing a level — it’s a regime change.
If the market accelerates lower, $50–58k will quickly move from “fear scenario” to a working range. Satoshi would understand.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin risks going deeper: the bear-market script is repeating

BTC is stuck below $80k and looks increasingly lifeless. Key supports are broken, rebound attempts show zero conviction. All of this looks uncomfortably similar to past bear phases.

📉 What the market sees

— Price below the true market mean ($80.7k)
— Loss of the 21-week EMA — a classic bear-market trigger
— Since the EMA crossover, BTC is already −17% (from $90k to $78k)

📊 History doesn’t lie
Rekt Capital and CryptoBullet agree:
after this EMA setup in past cycles, further downside followed — not a “quick reversal.”

🧲 Where price could be pulled

— $84k — CME gap, possible short-term bounce
— $74.4k — first major liquidity target
— $49k — deep-bear target if the market enters capitulation

🧠 On-chain signal

CryptoQuant highlights a key moment:
BTC is trading below the realized price of 12–18 month holders.
Historically, this is not a “correction,” but the entry into a prolonged bear phase — where any rallies are sold into.

📌 Conclusion

As long as price stays below realized cost and the EMA, the market follows the playbook of previous bear markets.

CME bounces are possible, but without reclaiming key levels they are pauses in the decline — not the start of a new cycle.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Why traders expect a BTC bounce to $85k

Bitcoin rebounded from $74.5k and is already trading about +5.5% higher. The market is still nervous, but technically a short-term relief-rally scenario is forming.

📊 What’s happening with price

— A huge CME gap has formed: ~$77.4k → ~$84.4k
— The largest gap of the cycle and the biggest weekend move in months
— Historically, such gaps tend to get filled, making the $84k–$85k zone a magnet

🧲 Liquidity points the route

— A cluster of sell orders around $80k
— The next major pool sits just above $85k
— A break above $80k = risk of a short squeeze that could quickly push price higher

📐 Fair Value Gaps
Titan of Crypto notes:
— first FVG: $79k–$81k
— second FVG: $84k–$88k
If the recovery continues, price most often gravitates to these zones.

💸 ETFs show signs of life again
— +$561.9m inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs
— The first inflow day of February already surpassed all of January
— No ETF recorded outflows

This is a classic signal: institutions are buying fear.

😱 Sentiment at the bottom
Santiment records maximum FUD since November 2025.
Historically, such points often produce relief rallies.
Plus, the MVRV Z-score is at all-time lows, typically aligning with “fire-sale” zones.

📌 Conclusion

This is not a cycle reversal, but a technical bounce.
As long as price stays below key MAs, it’s a liquidity-and-fear trade.
$80k → $85k looks like a logical path if shorts start getting squeezed.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin ETFs fell below $100B — did institutions blink?

Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost another $272M, pushing total assets under management back below $100B — for the first time since April 2025. The peak was in October at around $168B. The contrast is, to put it mildly, brutal.

📉 By the numbers

— AUM: < $100B
— YTD outflows: nearly $1.3B
— BTC dropped below $74k
— Total crypto market cap in a week: $3.11T → $2.64T

🪙 Alt funds are holding up
While Bitcoin ETFs see outflows, altcoin funds posted inflows:
— ETH: +$14M
— XRP: +$19.6M
— SOL: +$1.2M
A weak signal, but a telling one — capital is looking for alternatives.

🏗 ETFs below cost basis
BTC is trading below $84k — the average creation price for ETF shares.
In practice: new shares are being created at a loss, so pressure on flows is logical.

🧠 Institutions aren’t panicking
ETF analysts broadly agree:

— there won’t be a mass exit
— long-term institutional holders remain patient

🔁 Next stage — on-chain
B2C2 says it plainly: the next institutional wave won’t come via ETFs, but through direct crypto trading.
ETFs are the entry point. On-chain is the next level.

📌 Conclusion

ETFs are weakening — not because Bitcoin is dead, but because the format is getting tight. Institutions aren’t leaving. They’re changing the route.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin crashes below $64K — record selling. Where is the bottom?

BTC is down –13% in 4 days: from $79,300 to $63,844. Price broke below $69K — the 2021 bull-market high many saw as “iron” support. Selling is accelerating, leverage is getting flushed, and the market is tense.

📉 What’s happening now

— BTC below $69K, first time this cycle
— Futures Open Interest –$10B in a week → harsh deleveraging
— Pressure is not only price-based, but structural

🧱 Why $69K matters

— In past cycles, the previous ATH often became the bear-market floor
— In 2022 BTC initially held $19.6K (2017 high) — then still broke below it

Similar setup now:

— $58K–$69K = largest volume cluster
— 200-week MA sits around $58K
— Order books show large bids at $65K–$68K

⚠️ Support exists, but this may not end with a single touch.

📊 Oversold — extreme

— Weekly RSI < 30 (rare: only 4 times in history)
— Previous cases saw an average +16% bounce within days
— aNUPL turned negative → the average holder is at a loss

🧠 Key nuance
Sentiment is breaking faster than in past cycles.
This looks less like a slow bleed and more like an acute capitulation phase.

📌 Conclusion

Below $60K isn’t fantasy — it’s a scenario.
But the market is already screaming oversold.
Even if the bottom isn’t caught on the first try, we’re close to the zone where fear starts working against sellers.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 ETF flows are waking up: $145m into Bitcoin — but no euphoria

Bitcoin ETFs continue a cautious rebound. After a strong $371m on Friday, funds added another $145m on Monday, with BTC hovering around $70K.

📊 What matters in the flows

— Outflows slowed to $187m — a sharp deceleration
— CoinShares: historically, this signals an inflection point
— But YTD is still -$1.9bn, too early to celebrate

🧠 OGs aren’t exiting — they’re taking profits
Bitwise cuts through a popular narrative:

— early holders are not fleeing BTC
— they are partially locking in gains, not closing positions
— most remain in the market, just with reduced risk

🗣 Hougan (Bitwise):

The OG core that dislikes BlackRock and ETFs is a shrinking minority. New institutions are not pushing out old holders — they are complementing them.

⚖️ Context
— Bernstein: the current downturn is “the weakest bear case in BTC history”
— No FTX, no systemic failures, just macro and redistribution
— Alts also picked up: ETH +$57m, XRP +$6.3m

📌 Conclusion
ETF pressure is easing, no panic.
OGs are not capitulating, institutions are returning cautiously.
The market isn’t bullish — but it’s far from dead.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Strategy changes the scheme: more preferreds — more Bitcoin

Strategy CEO Phong Le announced a shift in the financing tactic for BTC purchases. The company is gradually moving away from issuing common shares and focusing on perpetual preferred stock.

💼 What is changing

— Shift from equity capital to preferred capital
— Main instrument — Stretch (STRC)
— Annual dividend on STRC — >11%
— Already the fourth perpetual offering to finance Bitcoin purchases

The idea is simple: dilute MSTR less, attract more stable capital through preferreds.

📈 STRC back at $100 — what’s next?
On Wednesday, STRC returned to its $100 par value for the first time since mid-January. Previously, shares had fallen below $94 amid BTC’s drop under $60K.

Now that the price is back at par value, Strategy can relaunch the offering and direct funds toward new Bitcoin purchases.

BTC is currently trading around $66.8K — without a clear impulse.

🧠 Why not buy competitors?
There are more and more “Bitcoin treasury” companies on the market, and some are trading below their net asset value.
But Le considers buying competitors a distraction from the core strategy:

“In a new market, you need to focus on your own product. Buying other digital treasury companies is a distraction.”

📉 MSTR shares closed the session -5% at $126.14.

📌 Conclusion
Strategy is not slowing down on Bitcoin — it is changing the instrument. Less dilution, more dividend math. If STRC holds at $100, the market may see aggressive BTC purchases again.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 The ETF market sheds $410m, Standard Chartered cuts Bitcoin target

US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to lose money — on Thursday, $410.4m flowed out of the funds. The week is already down $375m, and if there are no inflows on Friday, this will be the fourth consecutive week of outflows.

AUM has fallen to ~$80bn versus a peak of nearly $170bn in October 2025.

📉 Standard Chartered lowers forecast
The bank cut its 2026 BTC target from $150K to $100K and allows for a drop to $50K before recovery.
For ETH, the forecast is $1,400 at the bottom and $4,000 by year-end.

The wording is tough: “capitulation” is possible in the coming months.

💸 Who is losing the most

— BlackRock IBIT: −$157.6m
— Fidelity FBTC: −$104.1m
— Ether ETF: −$113m in one day
— XRP ETF: first outflows since February 3
— Solana ETF — the only one in positive territory (+$2.7m)

🔎 Is the bottom not reached yet?
CryptoQuant believes the key support is around $55K. Cycle indicators are in a bearish phase, but not in “extreme bear,” which historically precedes the final bottom.

BTC is trading around $66K, LTHs are selling near breakeven. Historically, final reversals formed when long-term holders were down −30–40%.

📌 Conclusion
ETF capital is leaving, banks are cutting targets, the cycle remains bearish.
There are no signs of panic capitulation yet — which means the market may require an even more painful flush before a real reversal.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Bitcoin −22% since the start of the year — worst Q1 since 2018?

BTC started the year around $87.7K and has already dropped to ~$68K. A −22.3% drawdown — and the market is balancing on the edge of the weakest first quarter in eight years.

📊 Historical context

— 2018: −49.7% in Q1
— 2020: −10.8%
— 2025: −11.8%
— 2026: already −22% and the month isn’t even closed

Bitcoin declined in 7 of the last 13 first quarters. Q1 volatility is classic. But the current dynamics once again bring back bear market rhetoric.

📉 First ever red January + February?
BTC already closed January at −10.2%.
February is currently at −13.4%.

To avoid the first “double red start of the year” in history, price needs to reclaim $80K before month-end. For now, that looks like an ambitious task.

🔎 Is this a crash or a correction?
Some analysts view what’s happening as a standard correction phase amid macro pressure. Historically, BTC often showed weakness at the start of the year and recovered later — especially in the context of institutional demand and halving cycles.

But the fact remains:

fifth consecutive week of decline, −2.3% in 24 hours, pressure is not easing.

📌 Conclusion

Q1 may go down as the worst since 2018. For now, it looks like a deep correction, but if February closes in the red — the market’s psychological backdrop could become even heavier.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑