🟠 Worst November in 7 Years — but Bulls Might Actually Benefit

Bitcoin is down –16.9% in November — its weakest result since 2019.
But analysts say this is exactly the kind of cleanup that sets the stage for a strong 2026 run.

📉 Monthly data:

— November 2024: –16.9%
— November 2019: –17.3%
— Worst November ever — 2018: –36.5%
— BTC is now hovering around $91.5K

📊 What analysts are saying:
— Nik Rak (LVRG): “Capitulation is a chance for smart investors to re-enter. Overleveraged players and weak projects are washed out.”
— Kapoor: “November is usually green, but this one is heading toward the worst since 2018.”
— Arctic Digital: the cycle started early because of ETFs — institutions shifted market timing.

🔥 Key levels for the month:

— $93,401 — crucial monthly close
— $102,437 — ultra-bullish target (unlikely now)
— BTC remains below $92K, no breakout yet

🧩 Bottom line
Yes, November is red. Yes, it hurts.
But: capitulation + early cycle shift + market cleanup = foundation for a strong 2026.

If Bitcoin closes the month above $93K, that’ll be the first signal the bottom may be near.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 MACD turns red for the first time this cycle — and the bears smell blood

Bitcoin is under pressure again: the monthly MACD just flipped red for the first time in the entire cycle, and on-chain metrics hint that “it hasn’t even started hurting yet.”
And now the market is whispering numbers that used to sound impossible.

📉 What happened:

— In October, BTC’s monthly MACD flipped red for the first time in the cycle
— Historically this happened 5 times: in 4 out of 5 cases the market dropped another ~50%
— Since the crossover, BTC is already down about -35%

📊 Current setup:
— MACD leaves room for another -25% → the $62.2K zone by January 2026
— That almost aligns with the 200-week EMA → around ~$66.3K
— MVRV is also pointing lower: we’re still above the -0.5σ band where BTC usually returns during corrections
— That zone implies a target around ~$76.25K

📉 Popular bearish targets:

— Peter Brandt: BTC could fall below $50K if pressure intensifies
— Crypto Patel: $60–70K zones based on the Fib grid
— Some fractals (double-top setups) point to the same regions

🔥 What it means for the market
Across all higher timeframes, Bitcoin doesn’t look like an asset that has already bottomed.
All the classic signals that usually mark the end of a correction — haven’t fired yet.

But here’s the nuance: historically, the biggest MACD washouts often became the base layer for the next explosive cycle.

The market isn’t exhausted yet.
But the bottom? — Most likely not here.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Canaan enters green mining: adaptive clean-energy platform

Canaan is reshaping mining for the new energy reality. The company announced a partnership with SynVista Energy: together they’re building an adaptive mining platform that adjusts hashpower to renewable-energy output — in real time and powered by AI.

📊 What they’re doing:

— Miners will run on a “smart” schedule: AI syncs hashpower with fluctuations in renewable generation
— The goal is to squeeze the maximum out of clean energy without stressing the grid
— The platform is meant to be an industrial, scalable product — not another “farm in the middle of nowhere” experiment

⚠️ Why it matters:
Renewables are unstable: wind dies — power disappears; sun sets — generation drops. Classic mining strategies don’t work here. Canaan says it outright: surplus electrons are currently wasted, while the new model turns them into profit.

💰 Mining + tokenized RWA
Canaan and SynVista plan to tokenize:

— energy generation
— carbon reductions
— mining revenue

All of it on-chain. Why? To build transparent data rails and give future green assets real liquidity: tokenized cashflows, carbon credits, energy RWAs.

🌱 Not Canaan’s first step
— In Canada they launched a “gas-to-computing” pilot: using stranded natural gas to power miners
— In Texas they partnered with Soluna: deploying hardware in a wind-powered data center

According to Cambridge, Bitcoin’s share of global energy use is only 0.8%. But the share of renewables in mining is growing by ~6% a year.

Green mining is no longer a meme — it’s becoming infrastructure.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Cantor slashes Strategy target by 60% — but keeps pushing the long thesis

Cantor Fitzgerald chopped its Strategy price target from $560 to $229 — yet somehow stayed bullish. Financial media freaked out, while Cantor calmly told clients: “Relax, there will be no forced liquidation.”

📉 What happened

— Strategy’s price target cut by 60%
— “Buy” rating still intact
— Debt fears everywhere, but Cantor insists: “They have enough cash for 21 months of dividends”
— For real trouble to start, BTC would need to crash… 90% from current levels

Translation: the market is screaming, analysts panicking, but Cantor says: “dip bought, move on.”

🔥 MSCI is still the main threat
A real risk remains: MSCI may exclude companies where digital assets exceed 50% of balance-sheet holdings. Strategy is exactly in that danger zone.
That would trigger a “forced flow headwind” — selling pressure from mandatory exits.
But even here, Cantor says the risk is short-lived and fundamentals remain intact.

🪙 Cantor’s core thesis
“We’re close to the moment when Bitcoin overtakes gold.”
For that to happen, BTC must hit $1,577,860 — roughly a 16x from today.

Other analysts aren’t far behind: Joe Burnett predicts $1.8M by 2035. Gold is rallying this year, Bitcoin is down — but the “digital gold wins” narrative is alive and loud.

📌 Strategy stock trades around $186, down 27% this month and 35% YTD. Yeah, the disconnect is massive.

But Cantor shrugs again:
“Just a healthy correction before the next cycle.”

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 400,000 BTC have left exchanges — liquidity is evaporating before our eyes

Santiment has released fresh data: 403,000 BTC disappeared from exchanges over the past year.
That’s roughly 2% of the total supply, and the market is reading it as a clean bullish signal.

📉 Fewer coins on exchanges = lower chance of a major dump
For long-term holders this is normal: accumulate coins → move to cold storage. But this time it’s not just retail.

🔥 BTC is flowing into ETFs and corporations
Bitmern Mining CEO Giannis Andreu states plainly:

“ETFs and public companies now hold more Bitcoin than all exchanges combined.”

The numbers confirm it:

— ~2.11M BTC remain on exchanges
— ETFs hold 1.5M+ BTC
— Public companies hold 1M+ BTC
Combined — nearly 11% of total supply in the hands of entities that do not sell quickly.

This isn’t just outflow — it’s a change in market ownership:
lower liquid supply → stronger price moves → structural setup for future scarcity.

🗣 Santiment summarizes:

“The fewer coins on exchanges, the lower the probability of a major crash.”

Institutions are quietly building their own corner of Bitcoin reality — and liquidity is flowing into places where it won’t be coming back from.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 BTC bottom — only in 2026? Volumes are collapsing, the market is falling asleep

New analytics warn of one thing: the cycle bottom may come only in October 2026. While exchange volumes continue dying off, the chances of a quick reversal are minimal.

📉 What Pizzino says

— Volumes are dropping just like at the end of 2022
— The market expects lows for almost another year
— The 200-day SMA is pressing from above, risk appetite is zero
— The best one can hope for now is sideways movement and new lower lows

Pizzino talks about a “shock move” upward — but only when the majority relaxes and stops watching the market. And in his opinion, that’s closer to 2026.

📊 What on-chain data shows (CryptoQuant)

— The share of large deposits to exchanges collapsed from 47% to 21%
— The average deposit fell from 1.1 BTC → 0.7 BTC
— This means one thing: whales stopped applying sell pressure

When large players stop sending coins to exchanges — the market gets a chance for a rebound.

CryptoQuant believes that reduced pressure may push the price back to $99,000 — the lower boundary of the on-chain realized bands in a bear market.
Next resistances:
— $102K — annual MA
— $112K — Trader On-chain Realized Price

There will be no fast bull run. But the lower the volumes and the quieter the market — the stronger the “shock move” will be later. And according to on-chain data, the first wave may come from exhausted sellers.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑

🟠 Sharks are buying Bitcoin at the fastest pace in 13 years — while price is down 30%

Bitcoin has pulled back 30% from its $126K peak and is hovering around the $85K zone. The crowd is nervous — the sharks are not.

📊 What’s happening on-chain:

— Wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC added 54,000 BTC in just one week
— Total BTC held by “sharks” has grown to 3.575m BTC
— This is the fastest accumulation phase since 2012

History sends an uncomfortable hint:

— In 2012, similar accumulation was followed by a +900% move within a year
— In 2011 — a +350% rally
The fractal is familiar. And it’s not about capitulation.

🧱 But there’s a catch
— OG whales (10,000+ BTC) are still actively selling
— Institutional demand is at record levels, but it’s being offset by distribution of old coins
— Capriole: “Buying is historically strong — selling from long-term holders is even more historic”

So the market right now is a tug-of-war: sharks are buying every dip, while early players unload calmly and without emotion.

Conclusion:
When mid-sized players accumulate like they did in 2012, the market usually isn’t thinking about “saving what’s left.” It’s preparing for the next phase. But until OG whales finish distributing, price will look weak and unhealthy. These are exactly the moments when most people exit — and exactly when future upside is being built.

Satoshi Tweeted🔑