After one of the sharpest market drops in October, institutions are buying again — Bitcoin ETFs recorded $524m in daily inflows, the highest since October 7.
— According to Farside Investors, this is the strongest day since the October crash, when ETF outflows hit $700m daily.
— The inflows coincide with news that the U.S. Senate approved a funding package to end the government shutdown — the vote now moves to the House.
— Meanwhile, “smart money” (per Nansen data) opened $8.5m in long positions, signaling renewed optimism among top traders.
“The correction remains healthy — it’s clearing leverage and paving the way for new institutional entries.”
— Ethereum ETFs saw $107m in outflows
— Solana ETFs extended their 11-day inflow streak with +$8m
Bottom line: The market is digesting October’s shock, but institutions are already returning.
ETF inflows are once again fueling liquidity — and that’s the spark for the next leg up.
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Taiwan’s Premier Chou Jung-tai announced that the government is preparing a report on the volume of confiscated Bitcoin and possible strategies for its use — either selling it or forming a strategic reserve. The document is expected by the end of 2025.
— Taiwan may follow the example of the United States, where Donald Trump established the world’s first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March.
— Lawmakers have proposed not selling confiscated coins until a final decision on reserve creation is made.
— Chou’s report will outline the pros and cons of including Bitcoin in national reserves.
“Studying Bitcoin as a strategic asset and developing friendly regulation would be a true breakthrough for our country.”
Ko Ju-chun previously proposed allocating up to 5% of Taiwan’s $50 billion foreign reserves into Bitcoin as a hedge against global economic instability.
The world is moving toward an era where national reserves hold Bitcoin — and now, Asia is ready to join the game.
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Analysts at Glassnode believe the recent wave of Bitcoin sales by large holders is normal late-cycle behavior — not a “whale exodus.”
— A major address belonging to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 BTC ($237M) to Kraken.
— According to Glassnode, long-term holders are currently selling around 26,000 BTC per day, up from 12,000 in July — indicating steady distribution, not panic selling.
“This is classic profit-taking by old investors — a typical end-of-cycle pattern,” analysts noted.
“A late-stage cycle doesn’t mean the market has peaked — it just means momentum is slowing, and liquidity and macro factors are taking over.”
— NUPL at 0.476, hinting at a potential local bottom.
— The recent drop is largely macro-driven: Fed rates, shrinking liquidity, and rising investor caution.
BTC Markets reminds that previous market tops occurred roughly every 4 years (2017, 2021), with the last peak on October 6, 2025 — 1,050 days after the cycle bottom.
“It still fits historical cycle logic, but the drivers are changing — ETF flows and corporate funds now move the market more than retail.”
Bottom line: whales aren’t fleeing — they’re realizing profits. The cycle is aging, not dying. The real question is who’s buying when the old hands cash out.
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Nick Szabo, one of Bitcoin’s early ideologists and the author of the smart contract concept, says no blockchain is immune to legal pressure — not even Bitcoin.
— Every Layer-1 network has legal exposure: governments can pressure miners, node operators, and wallet services
— According to Szabo, treating Bitcoin as a “magical tool immune to any interference” is delusional
— Regulators can force network participants to remove content or block data — including Ordinals and Runes transactions
In recent months, the Bitcoin community has been debating Core vs. Knots: should “non-financial spam” (images, videos, audio) via Ordinals and BRC-20 be allowed?
As the conflict escalates, Bitcoin Knots has gained a share of validators from Bitcoin Core, intensifying discussions about “network purity.”
The CEO of Seedor responded to Szabo:
“Bitcoin’s resilience isn’t about predicting every law, but about minimizing the points where pressure can be applied.”
Bottom line: even Bitcoin legends remind us — the network’s strength comes from architecture and decentralization, not mythology.
There is no sacred armor against jurisdictions — only a balance between code and law.
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While retail is fleeing the market and posting memes about working at McDonald’s, big players are doing the opposite — they’re buying.
Glassnode shows a sharp reversal: the number of addresses holding 1,000+ BTC jumped from a yearly low of 1,354 → 1,384 in just three weeks.
That’s the highest level in nearly four months.
And all of this is happening while Bitcoin dropped to $89,550 on Tuesday.
🧊 Retail is capitulating
Addresses holding ≥1 BTC fell to a yearly low — 977,420.
In other words, “small holders” are giving up, while large players are scooping up supply.
The data contradicts the idea that old holders crashed the market.
10X Research notes that the balance between buyers and sellers broke right after the October 29 FOMC meeting.
But:
“Super-whales are absorbing the sales of mid-sized whales, even if net flows remain negative.”
Extreme fear is usually the zone where big money begins accumulating liquidity.
— Bitwise: the current setup is “a generational opportunity.”
— Cameron Winklevoss: “This is the last time you’ll ever buy Bitcoin below $90K.”
— TheCryptoDog: expects a bounce from the 87.7K zone — a major support and high-timeframe MA area.
🧩 The bottom line
Retail is panicking.
Fear is at its lows.
Whales are flipping into accumulation mode.
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November was supposed to be the most bullish month of the year. Instead, we got a collapse in inflows — with one clear culprit.
IBIT saw a $523M outflow in a single day — the largest since launch. Total Bitcoin ETF outflows are now $2.96B, and $2.1B of that comes from BlackRock alone.
One more week of this pace — and we break February’s anti-record of $3.56B. Meaning November would officially become the worst month in ETF history.
— Death Cross #4 in this cycle
— Rate-cut odds collapsed from 93% → 46%
— Smart money is shorting: +$5.7M new short positions
— Total short balance: –$275M
— Tom Lee hints that two major market makers are “underwater”
ETFs were the main fuel of the 2025 bull run.
Now that fuel is being siphoned back out of the tank.
• ETH ETFs: –$74.2M
• SOL ETFs: +$26.2M and already $421M in total inflows — Solana back on the horse
November, which was supposed to pump — is dumping instead. Institutions are exiting, smart money is shorting, and the market is tense.
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Bitcoin crashed below $90K — and that switched whales into max-activity mode. Santiment is recording an explosion on-chain: over 102,000 transactions above $100K and 29,000 transactions over $1M. This week is on track to become the most whale-dominated week of 2025.
— Every dip below $90K makes big players move even harder
— Glassnode shows growth in 1000+ BTC wallets — for the first time in months
— Some analysts see a shift from “dumping” to accumulation
Pav Hundal (Swyftx): “Ten buys for every sell — retail and whales are smashing BUY.”
Bitwise: “Large holders are keeping a cool head and scooping up what the fearful are dumping.”
And the final point: BitMine and Bitwise expect the bottom to form this week.
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Bitcoin Twitter exploded after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suddenly appeared at the opening of Pubkey in Washington — a cult “Bitcoin pub.”
— Ben Werkman: “This is that moment people later say was obvious.”
— Steven Lubka: “This is the sign.”
— Fred Krueger, Natalie Brunell, Jeff Tiller — all saw a symbolic shift.
Bessent has long been seen as pro-crypto:
— supports the idea of the U.S. as a global hub for digital assets
— backs crypto legislation like the GENIUS Act
— openly discussed buying BTC for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in August
And now — he personally shows up at the opening of a Bitcoin-themed bar. Symbolic? Yes. A coincidence? Hardly.
All this happens as Bitcoin pulls back to ~$85.5K, and social media is split between “we’re going to $130K” and “we’re crashing to $20K.”
While traders argue, Bessent calmly walks into Pubkey. Sometimes the market gives signals that aren’t on the charts.
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Over the weekend, BTC touched a bottom near $82K — and immediately started climbing back up. Analysts say one thing: selling pressure has clearly weakened, and expectations of a Fed rate cut are rising again.
For the past two weeks, crypto and tech stocks crashed together — the market swung between “the Fed will cut rates” and “no, they won’t.” Now the pendulum has swung back toward a cut.
Charles Edwards writes: “If the market returns to rate-cut expectations — Bitcoin will go higher.”
— their Risk-Off indicator is falling sharply, meaning capitulation is easing
— the first selling wave is behind us
— normally comes a second wave — weaker and without a new low, and that’s often where true bottoms form
BTC has already gone through a –36% correction from the $126K high — a heavy liquidation flush, but historically this zone often leads to reversals.
The probability of a December rate cut has jumped back to ~70% (just two days ago it was 30%).
The market reacts instantly — liquidity may start flowing back into risk assets.
Analysts can’t resist sarcasm:
“If you’re betting on a year-long bear market — you’re betting on the U.S. willingly bankrupting itself.”
And that’s somewhat logical: America always turns on the money printer right on time.
Fear is fading, capitulation is calming down, rate cuts may return, and the market is starting to wink at the bulls.
It looks like Bitcoin has a real chance to continue the rebound — but the true test will come during the second selling wave. That’s where we’ll see who the real buyers are.
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BTC is back in a zone where the risk/reward looks as juicy as it hasn’t looked since 2022. Rare bullish on-chain signals are flashing — but the market is still torn between “time to buy” and “this is just a dead cat.”
— The Sharpe Ratio entered the green zone for the first time since June 2023
— These levels appeared only in 2019, 2020, and at the absolute bottom in 2022
— It’s not a guaranteed bottom, but future return quality is improving
— A similar setup appeared right before a trend reversal into a bull phase
Capriole Bitcoin Heater is also back in “deep green.”
The indicator dropped to 0.09 — last seen during the FTX collapse, right before the market prepared for months of growth.
💬 Metric creator Charles Edwards writes: “With numbers like these, I can’t be a bear. I expect growth for at least a week.”
Peter Brandt sees the current bounce as a possible dead cat — a temporary pause before deeper correction.
Strong headwinds remain: institutional selling, weak on-chain activity, and macro pressure.
Bitcoin is sitting in a zone that historically offered some of the best entry points.
But to confirm a reversal, the Sharpe Ratio must turn upward — and selling from large players must calm down.
The spring is compressed. The only question: is this the start of a reversal… or one last breath before another leg down?
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BTC is breaking seasonality for the second month in a row: “Uptober” turned red, and November is following the same route — down 20% since the start of the month. Historically, this was the strongest period of the year… but right now the chart looks like someone turned off bull mode entirely.
— Seasonality stopped working, both months closed in the red
— Price dropped below the cost basis of short-term holders — only the third time since 2024
— Buyers from the $106K–$118K range are capitulating at a loss, increasing sell pressure
— Number of wallets holding 100+ BTC is rising (+0.47% this week)
— Large holders are showing interest again
— Whale activity is accelerating alongside the drop — a typical pre-reversal pattern
— A surge in demand and a quick move back above $100K
— Or a deep, prolonged accumulation zone until the market digests the upper layer of FOMO buyers
We’re at a moment where seasonality has broken down, emotions are at their lowest, and whales are starting to stir.
It’s either the early stage of renewed demand… or the beginning of a long sideways grind before the next impulse.
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Technical models are panicking again: Bitcoin’s 200-day trend has turned down, the moving averages have formed a death cross — and the crowd instantly rushed to bury the bull run.
— Crypto₿irb: “From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over.”
— 10x Research: “This is a bear market, and what we’re seeing is a reversal rally.”
— 200-day trend + drop below MA = a classic bearish signal.
But there’s a catch.
— Apollo Capital: the pressure from DAT is behind us, but that doesn’t automatically mean a bear market.
— Risk-assets and macro will decide the trend — not a single indicator.
— Skew sees local constructive structure: as long as BTC holds $90K–$92K, upside is still on the table.
BTC already tried to hold $92K, pulled back to $91.2K — the battle for the trend zone is happening live.
The technicals draw a funeral. Macro says “wait.” And the market — as always — picks the path that wipes out both sides.
Watch $90K–$92K:
Lose it — we get the real “angle of descent.”
Hold it — we’ll see how “bearish” this “bear market” really is.
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Bitcoin is down –16.9% in November — its weakest result since 2019.
But analysts say this is exactly the kind of cleanup that sets the stage for a strong 2026 run.
— November 2024: –16.9%
— November 2019: –17.3%
— Worst November ever — 2018: –36.5%
— BTC is now hovering around $91.5K
— Nik Rak (LVRG): “Capitulation is a chance for smart investors to re-enter. Overleveraged players and weak projects are washed out.”
— Kapoor: “November is usually green, but this one is heading toward the worst since 2018.”
— Arctic Digital: the cycle started early because of ETFs — institutions shifted market timing.
— $93,401 — crucial monthly close
— $102,437 — ultra-bullish target (unlikely now)
— BTC remains below $92K, no breakout yet
🧩 Bottom line
Yes, November is red. Yes, it hurts.
But: capitulation + early cycle shift + market cleanup = foundation for a strong 2026.
If Bitcoin closes the month above $93K, that’ll be the first signal the bottom may be near.
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Bitcoin is under pressure again: the monthly MACD just flipped red for the first time in the entire cycle, and on-chain metrics hint that “it hasn’t even started hurting yet.”
And now the market is whispering numbers that used to sound impossible.
— In October, BTC’s monthly MACD flipped red for the first time in the cycle
— Historically this happened 5 times: in 4 out of 5 cases the market dropped another ~50%
— Since the crossover, BTC is already down about -35%
— MACD leaves room for another -25% → the $62.2K zone by January 2026
— That almost aligns with the 200-week EMA → around ~$66.3K
— MVRV is also pointing lower: we’re still above the -0.5σ band where BTC usually returns during corrections
— That zone implies a target around ~$76.25K
— Peter Brandt: BTC could fall below $50K if pressure intensifies
— Crypto Patel: $60–70K zones based on the Fib grid
— Some fractals (double-top setups) point to the same regions
Across all higher timeframes, Bitcoin doesn’t look like an asset that has already bottomed.
All the classic signals that usually mark the end of a correction — haven’t fired yet.
But here’s the nuance: historically, the biggest MACD washouts often became the base layer for the next explosive cycle.
The market isn’t exhausted yet.
But the bottom? — Most likely not here.
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