After Bitcoin dropped below $106K, market sentiment plunged into Extreme Fear — the Fear & Greed Index fell to 21 out of 100, twice lower than the previous day.
— BTC fell to $105,540, then slightly rebounded above $106,500
— The Fear Index was last this low in April, when Trump’s tariffs took effect
— In recent weeks, the market has swung between Neutral and Extreme Fear after October’s crash from $126K
— Falling institutional demand and on-chain activity
— Hawkish tone from the Fed: the rate was cut, but further reductions in 2025 were ruled out
— Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs reached $800M for the week — for the first time in seven months, buyers no longer cover miner supply
All the bulls need right now is a little faith and one green candle.
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Willy Woo is confident that Michael Saylor’s Strategy won’t have to liquidate its Bitcoin reserves — even if the market enters a deep correction.
— The company holds $1.01B in convertible debt maturing in 2027.
— To avoid selling BTC, MSTR stock must stay above $183.19, which corresponds to Bitcoin ≈ $91.5K.
— Under current conditions, “it would take a hellishly long bear market” to force Strategy to sell.
While the market panics, Saylor seems to be simply holding — and waiting for that $1M Bitcoin, just as Wood and Armstrong predict.
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The market is trapped again. Above $105K, a massive sell wall has formed — orders stretch up to $112K, and every bull attempt to rebound slams into a solid order book.
— According to Material Indicators, a large player is deliberately pushing the price down, possibly targeting the $98K–$93K range.
— If BTC touches $105K, part of the sell orders may vanish — a classic manipulation move.
— A buy zone is forming near $100K, but demand isn’t strong enough yet.
Analysts note that the 50-week SMA still holds support; if it doesn’t break, that could be a macro-bullish signal.
⚖️ Meanwhile, in the stock market, another drama unfolds: the U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of import tariffs, and rumors of a possible repeal are stirring traders. A pro-business ruling could boost stocks — leaving crypto in the shadows.
Bottom line: the market is caught between fake wall and real fear — now it’s just a question of who blinks first: the whale or the crowd.
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After six consecutive days of outflows, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are back in the green — Thursday saw $239.9M in inflows, breaking a $1.4B losing streak.
— BlackRock (IBIT): +$112.4M
— Fidelity (FBTC): +$61.6M
— ARK 21Shares (ARKB): +$60.4M
— Grayscale (GBTC): unchanged for the first time after a week of outflows
— Ethereum funds saw their first inflows of $12.5M after $837M in cumulative outflows
— SOL ETFs have shown steady growth since their launch on Oct 28, with $322M in inflows and zero red days
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The market is waking up — BTC jumped 5%, surpassing $106K following news that the U.S. government shutdown may soon end.
— The U.S. Senate reached a bipartisan deal to end the longest shutdown in history — 40 days.
— The probability of it ending before November 15 is 85% (Polymarket).
— This would unlock billions in Treasury funds and inject liquidity back into the market.
“If the shutdown ends, liquidity will return, and fresh macro data like CPI will follow. That could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.”
— CoinGlass shows a cluster of orders above $112K, where a liquidation “squeeze” is expected.
— A breakout above $115K could trigger massive short covering and push BTC toward $117K.
— Analysts call the $110K–$112K range a key breakout zone.
If history repeats itself — as after the 2019 shutdown — a rally of several hundred percent isn’t out of the question.
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Bitcoin surged 6.7% to $106K as social media exploded with discussions — the $BTC tag became the top trend of recent days.
— The U.S. Senate on Monday approved a funding bill to end the longest government shutdown in history (40+ days).
— The bill now heads to the House of Representatives and then to President Trump’s desk — reopening the government and restoring operations at agencies like the SEC and CFTC, which had been running with minimal staff.
— Nearly one million federal employees went unpaid, and air travel across the country was disrupted.
After dipping to $99,300, Bitcoin rebounded 6.7% to $106K.
“Optimism around the end of the shutdown and renewed bullish sentiment are driving interest back to Bitcoin.”
Bottom line: the shutdown is ending, liquidity is returning, and social media is buzzing.
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After one of the sharpest market drops in October, institutions are buying again — Bitcoin ETFs recorded $524m in daily inflows, the highest since October 7.
— According to Farside Investors, this is the strongest day since the October crash, when ETF outflows hit $700m daily.
— The inflows coincide with news that the U.S. Senate approved a funding package to end the government shutdown — the vote now moves to the House.
— Meanwhile, “smart money” (per Nansen data) opened $8.5m in long positions, signaling renewed optimism among top traders.
“The correction remains healthy — it’s clearing leverage and paving the way for new institutional entries.”
— Ethereum ETFs saw $107m in outflows
— Solana ETFs extended their 11-day inflow streak with +$8m
Bottom line: The market is digesting October’s shock, but institutions are already returning.
ETF inflows are once again fueling liquidity — and that’s the spark for the next leg up.
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Taiwan’s Premier Chou Jung-tai announced that the government is preparing a report on the volume of confiscated Bitcoin and possible strategies for its use — either selling it or forming a strategic reserve. The document is expected by the end of 2025.
— Taiwan may follow the example of the United States, where Donald Trump established the world’s first Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March.
— Lawmakers have proposed not selling confiscated coins until a final decision on reserve creation is made.
— Chou’s report will outline the pros and cons of including Bitcoin in national reserves.
“Studying Bitcoin as a strategic asset and developing friendly regulation would be a true breakthrough for our country.”
Ko Ju-chun previously proposed allocating up to 5% of Taiwan’s $50 billion foreign reserves into Bitcoin as a hedge against global economic instability.
The world is moving toward an era where national reserves hold Bitcoin — and now, Asia is ready to join the game.
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Analysts at Glassnode believe the recent wave of Bitcoin sales by large holders is normal late-cycle behavior — not a “whale exodus.”
— A major address belonging to trader Owen Gunden transferred 2,400 BTC ($237M) to Kraken.
— According to Glassnode, long-term holders are currently selling around 26,000 BTC per day, up from 12,000 in July — indicating steady distribution, not panic selling.
“This is classic profit-taking by old investors — a typical end-of-cycle pattern,” analysts noted.
“A late-stage cycle doesn’t mean the market has peaked — it just means momentum is slowing, and liquidity and macro factors are taking over.”
— NUPL at 0.476, hinting at a potential local bottom.
— The recent drop is largely macro-driven: Fed rates, shrinking liquidity, and rising investor caution.
BTC Markets reminds that previous market tops occurred roughly every 4 years (2017, 2021), with the last peak on October 6, 2025 — 1,050 days after the cycle bottom.
“It still fits historical cycle logic, but the drivers are changing — ETF flows and corporate funds now move the market more than retail.”
Bottom line: whales aren’t fleeing — they’re realizing profits. The cycle is aging, not dying. The real question is who’s buying when the old hands cash out.
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Nick Szabo, one of Bitcoin’s early ideologists and the author of the smart contract concept, says no blockchain is immune to legal pressure — not even Bitcoin.
— Every Layer-1 network has legal exposure: governments can pressure miners, node operators, and wallet services
— According to Szabo, treating Bitcoin as a “magical tool immune to any interference” is delusional
— Regulators can force network participants to remove content or block data — including Ordinals and Runes transactions
In recent months, the Bitcoin community has been debating Core vs. Knots: should “non-financial spam” (images, videos, audio) via Ordinals and BRC-20 be allowed?
As the conflict escalates, Bitcoin Knots has gained a share of validators from Bitcoin Core, intensifying discussions about “network purity.”
The CEO of Seedor responded to Szabo:
“Bitcoin’s resilience isn’t about predicting every law, but about minimizing the points where pressure can be applied.”
Bottom line: even Bitcoin legends remind us — the network’s strength comes from architecture and decentralization, not mythology.
There is no sacred armor against jurisdictions — only a balance between code and law.
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While retail is fleeing the market and posting memes about working at McDonald’s, big players are doing the opposite — they’re buying.
Glassnode shows a sharp reversal: the number of addresses holding 1,000+ BTC jumped from a yearly low of 1,354 → 1,384 in just three weeks.
That’s the highest level in nearly four months.
And all of this is happening while Bitcoin dropped to $89,550 on Tuesday.
🧊 Retail is capitulating
Addresses holding ≥1 BTC fell to a yearly low — 977,420.
In other words, “small holders” are giving up, while large players are scooping up supply.
The data contradicts the idea that old holders crashed the market.
10X Research notes that the balance between buyers and sellers broke right after the October 29 FOMC meeting.
But:
“Super-whales are absorbing the sales of mid-sized whales, even if net flows remain negative.”
Extreme fear is usually the zone where big money begins accumulating liquidity.
— Bitwise: the current setup is “a generational opportunity.”
— Cameron Winklevoss: “This is the last time you’ll ever buy Bitcoin below $90K.”
— TheCryptoDog: expects a bounce from the 87.7K zone — a major support and high-timeframe MA area.
🧩 The bottom line
Retail is panicking.
Fear is at its lows.
Whales are flipping into accumulation mode.
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November was supposed to be the most bullish month of the year. Instead, we got a collapse in inflows — with one clear culprit.
IBIT saw a $523M outflow in a single day — the largest since launch. Total Bitcoin ETF outflows are now $2.96B, and $2.1B of that comes from BlackRock alone.
One more week of this pace — and we break February’s anti-record of $3.56B. Meaning November would officially become the worst month in ETF history.
— Death Cross #4 in this cycle
— Rate-cut odds collapsed from 93% → 46%
— Smart money is shorting: +$5.7M new short positions
— Total short balance: –$275M
— Tom Lee hints that two major market makers are “underwater”
ETFs were the main fuel of the 2025 bull run.
Now that fuel is being siphoned back out of the tank.
• ETH ETFs: –$74.2M
• SOL ETFs: +$26.2M and already $421M in total inflows — Solana back on the horse
November, which was supposed to pump — is dumping instead. Institutions are exiting, smart money is shorting, and the market is tense.
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Bitcoin crashed below $90K — and that switched whales into max-activity mode. Santiment is recording an explosion on-chain: over 102,000 transactions above $100K and 29,000 transactions over $1M. This week is on track to become the most whale-dominated week of 2025.
— Every dip below $90K makes big players move even harder
— Glassnode shows growth in 1000+ BTC wallets — for the first time in months
— Some analysts see a shift from “dumping” to accumulation
Pav Hundal (Swyftx): “Ten buys for every sell — retail and whales are smashing BUY.”
Bitwise: “Large holders are keeping a cool head and scooping up what the fearful are dumping.”
And the final point: BitMine and Bitwise expect the bottom to form this week.
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Bitcoin Twitter exploded after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suddenly appeared at the opening of Pubkey in Washington — a cult “Bitcoin pub.”
— Ben Werkman: “This is that moment people later say was obvious.”
— Steven Lubka: “This is the sign.”
— Fred Krueger, Natalie Brunell, Jeff Tiller — all saw a symbolic shift.
Bessent has long been seen as pro-crypto:
— supports the idea of the U.S. as a global hub for digital assets
— backs crypto legislation like the GENIUS Act
— openly discussed buying BTC for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in August
And now — he personally shows up at the opening of a Bitcoin-themed bar. Symbolic? Yes. A coincidence? Hardly.
All this happens as Bitcoin pulls back to ~$85.5K, and social media is split between “we’re going to $130K” and “we’re crashing to $20K.”
While traders argue, Bessent calmly walks into Pubkey. Sometimes the market gives signals that aren’t on the charts.
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