— Price is back above the short-term holder cost basis ($114K) — where short-term holders turn profitable
— Glassnode reports rising demand from new investors — capital is flowing back in
— The 20-week MA ($113.3K) is holding — a strong confirmation of trend continuation

🗣 Frank Fetter: “BTC is back above the STH cost basis. The show goes on.”

🗣 Michael van de Poppe: “The drop gave a perfect entry. As long as 20W MA holds, trend remains bullish.”

🗣 Daan Crypto Trades: “My cycle base stands at $120K–$150K.”

“Retail always reacts emotionally. And almost every time, the market does the opposite.”

— April — first global tariffs
— June — Middle East tensions
— August — fears that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates
— October — Trump’s tariff announcement

— A “broadening top” pattern is forming — a structure that often ends bull cycles
— MSTR is already down 10%, showing pressure on corporate Bitcoin holdings
— The Fear Index dropped to 25 — panic across the market
— Yet gold is weakening, which could push capital back into crypto

— Bitfarms raised $588 million to build AI-focused data centers in North America
— TeraWulf issued $3.2 billion in debt to expand its Lake Mariner campus
— Miners previously relied on equity financing, but are now heavily leveraging debt to boost hashrate
— AI hosting provides long-term stable contracts, reducing exposure to BTC volatility

— BTC is back near $115K, bouncing strongly from its recent lows
— Glassnode reports a decline in aggressive selling — spot and futures markets have stabilized
— Funding remains neutral, with no overheated longs
— The market is now expecting another Fed rate cut on October 29 (probability: 96.7%)

— BTC is suffering from declining returns, and the traditional “Bitcoin cycle” may no longer hold
— 10x Research forecasts a cycle peak at $125K, despite stock-to-flow models predicting $1M
— Researchers remind that Bitcoin is only 16 years old, so it’s too early to draw rigid conclusions about cycles
— For comparison: Standard Chartered expects $200K in 2025 and up to $500K by 2028
— Meanwhile, “smart money” (according to Nansen) continues increasing BTC positions

— BTC is currently holding around $113K, up only +4.5%
— October’s “golden week” usually delivers +7%, making it — along with February and March — one of the strongest times of the year
— Seasonality still points to a bull market on track toward a new ATH of $160K by December

— The Fed is expected to cut rates again on October 29
— The U.S. and China are rushing to finalize a deal to avoid a tariff war
— The RSI on hourly charts shows a hidden bullish divergence