BTC has broken a new all-time high at $125,700, and the market is now gearing up for the next leg of the rally. “The next move to $150K+ has already begun,” writes CrediBULL Crypto.
— The $108K–$118K range is a “blessing zone” for re-entries
— Above $125K, Bitcoin enters price discovery mode
— The next technical target sits at $150K
— The U.S. government shutdown is pushing investors away from the dollar into BTC
— The DXY index has dropped 12% YTD, its worst performance in decades
— Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.2B inflows this week — the second-highest in history
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VanEck ran the numbers: if gold trades at $4,000 per ounce, the “equivalent price” of Bitcoin should be $644K. Half of gold’s market cap — that’s the target for the next halving cycle (2028).
📄 Context:
— Gold is up 50% YTD, driven by the weakening dollar and ongoing trade wars
— Bitcoin is “lagging,” but historically gold rallies first
— Younger investors increasingly prefer BTC as a digital store of value instead of gold bars
💬 Matthew Sigel from VanEck: “We expect Bitcoin to reach half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving.”
💬 Peter Schiff, as usual, grumbles: “Bitcoin is still 15% below its peak in gold terms.”
But according to Theya, the “fair value floor” is already $1.34M.
Irony: gold is back in fashion for the boomers — while the youth are mining their own gold, block by block.
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Bitcoin broke $126,200 amid record inflows into digital ETPs ($5.67B).
The market is once again embracing the old mantra: the “debasement trade” — flight from fiat into hard assets.
— $3.49B flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs (BlackRock and Bitwise leading)
— $1.49B into Ethereum, $685M into altcoins
— DXY -10% YTD, gold +50%, Bitcoin +27% — but BTC’s upside remains larger
— Whales withdrew 49K BTC from exchanges — a sign of long-term holding, not speculation
💬 Bitwise: “Investors on both sides — gold or crypto — are converging on one truth: capital is flowing back into digital assets.”
Macro factor: with a U.S. deficit above $1T, rising debt costs, and a weakening dollar, Bitcoin is becoming a hedge against financial erosion.
Paul Tudor Jones put it bluntly: “We’re back in the ’90s — same debt, same stimulus, but now we have BTC.”
Ironically, retail isn’t participating. Small transaction activity has been declining since spring — institutions are driving the rally.
A rally without euphoria — rare, but historically, these are the ones that end with another explosive move up.
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The market is holding its breath. Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart are now the tightest in Bitcoin’s history — meaning one thing: a volatility explosion is inevitable.
— Tony “The Bull” Severino: “Bitcoin is on the edge — either a parabola or the end of the bull run.”
— Historically, such compressions resolve within 70–100 days
— A breakout upward = a new phase of price discovery
— A breakdown = the start of a mature bear phase
Right now, BTC is hovering near the upper band (~$126K) but lacks a decisive push.
Severino warns of potential “head fakes” — false breakouts that shake out both bulls and bears.
“If the peak were already in, it would be the shortest bull run in history — which means it’s not,” he writes.
Bottom line: the market is wound like a spring. 100 days to decide — will the parabola begin… or is another crypto winter ahead?
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Bitcoin is trading at $120K, yet according to the Mayer Multiple, it’s still closer to oversold than overbought.
To reach the “overbought” zone (2.4×200W MA), BTC would need to climb to $180K.
— Current Mayer Multiple = 1.16 (0.8 = “bottom”, 2.4 = “peak”)
— In the previous cycle, the max was 1.84, when BTC was around $72K
— Now the price is 1.6× higher, but the metric has barely moved
“Bitcoin is at an ATH, but the Mayer Multiple is ice cold. That’s fuel for the next breakout.”
Rekt Capital and Axel Adler Jr. agree: as long as the MM stays this low, the upside potential remains strong.
If BTC doesn’t break out by year-end, the cycle may “cool off.” But if it does — the path to $180K is wide open.
Even at $120K, Bitcoin doesn’t look overheated — it’s just warming up for the next run.
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After Friday’s $20B liquidation “flush,” BTC bounced 8% and is once again trading above the key $115K level.
That means one thing: the correction is over, and the bull market structure remains intact.
— Price is back above the short-term holder cost basis ($114K) — where short-term holders turn profitable
— Glassnode reports rising demand from new investors — capital is flowing back in
— The 20-week MA ($113.3K) is holding — a strong confirmation of trend continuation
🗣 Frank Fetter: “BTC is back above the STH cost basis. The show goes on.”
🗣 Michael van de Poppe: “The drop gave a perfect entry. As long as 20W MA holds, trend remains bullish.”
🗣 Daan Crypto Trades: “My cycle base stands at $120K–$150K.”
Some are calling this a “2017-style washout” before the next parabolic run.
Bottom line: the market shook off the panic, and the $150K scenario is still alive.
If history rhymes even a little — the next wave is already heating up.
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Every time the crowd panics — smart traders accumulate.
Santiment proved it again last week when the market crashed after Trump announced 100% tariffs against China.
The crowd panics — “smart money” steps in.
“Retail always reacts emotionally. And almost every time, the market does the opposite.”
Santiment highlights four dates in 2025 when fear peaked:
— April — first global tariffs
— June — Middle East tensions
— August — fears that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates
— October — Trump’s tariff announcement
Every time, the same pattern: panic → sell-off → rebound. While the crowd shouted “it’s over,” traders were quietly buying assets at a discount.
🤔 Interesting fact: 81% of investors admit they buy out of fear, and 63% say emotions have damaged their portfolios.
The Fear & Greed Index is now 38, after falling to 24 on Sunday — the lowest since April.
The market is scared, which means… it’s time to act.
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The classic chartist is back.
Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin could reclaim $125K as early as next week — but first, another “shakeout” is likely.
“Either a shakeout followed by a quick new ATH, or a break of the parabola — in that case, we’d drop back to $50K–$60K.”
— On Friday, Bitcoin plunged from $121K to $102K after Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China
— Over $19B in liquidations
— BTC has since rebounded to $112K
“This is a reminder that even 1.5x leverage can be deadly. But the outlook remains simple: up.”
“Powell just declared the end of QT. Load the truck and buy everything.”
— U.S. inflation at 2.9%, labor market weakening
— Fed is almost certain to cut rates again
— Pav Hundal: “This is the perfect zone for Bitcoin.”
Bottom line: short-term turbulence is just noise.
The main trend is alive — and the market is gearing up for another leg higher.
We just need to survive one last shakeout.
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Glassnode warns that without a fresh catalyst, the market could drift lower.
BTC is trading around $110,800, about 5% below the key $117K level.
“Without a new catalyst, the market risks moving toward the lower range. Rising profit-taking among long-term holders suggests demand fatigue.”
“This month will be volatile. Likely range — $116K–$120K. But most probable scenario is consolidation after the sell-off.”
There’s a 95.7% probability of another rate cut on October 29, and loose monetary policy has almost always been bullish for crypto.
“With liquidations behind us and monetary easing ahead, market structure looks increasingly constructive. By year-end, Bitcoin could push toward $150K.”
Meanwhile, Arthur Hayes and Joe Burnett are looking further — calling for $250K by the end of 2025.
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The 2023 scenario is repeating itself: U.S. regional bank troubles are once again shaking the crypto market. Bitcoin has dropped below $106K, marking a 15-week low.
— Shares of U.S. regional banks are plunging, just like in spring 2023
— Back then, BTC crashed below $20K before sharply rebounding
— Now we see a similar pattern: fear, liquidations, and panic
“$BTC lost the $108K level. The next support is only around $101–102K. If we fail to reclaim $110K — expect more pain.”
Analysts warn of a potential “direct slide to $98K” if buyers don’t step back in.
“If Bitcoin can’t hold, it may fill last week’s wick and drop toward the 50-week MA.”
Peter Schiff, as always, plays his part:
“Gold will reach $1M before Bitcoin does.”
He called the situation not just de-dollarization but de-bitcoinization.
Yet, some traders disagree — they expect a rotation from gold into BTC soon.
“It’s natural to see profit flow out of gold — that’s how the market always works.”
Bitcoin stands on the edge again, but history knows how this ends: first panic, then rebound — and everyone’s “back in the market.”
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Institutional investors are turning optimistic again. According to a Coinbase Institutional survey, two-thirds of respondents believe Bitcoin will continue to rise over the next six months.
— 67% of institutions are bullish on BTC in the 3–6 month horizon
— 45% think the market is already in the late stage of a bull cycle
— Only 27% of retail investors share that view
“The crypto market still has growth potential. We’re seeing steady liquidity and a strong macro backdrop.”
— BitMine, chaired by Tom Lee, purchased 379,000 ETH ($1.5B) after the recent drop
— Michael Saylor’s Strategy hinted at new BTC purchases, already holding $69B in Bitcoin
Despite corrections in equities, DAT company crypto treasuries remain stable — a sign of long-term confidence.
Coinbase expects:
— Two more Fed rate cuts
— Economic stimulus from China
— Major funds shifting cash back into the market
Bottom line: Liquidity, macro support, and institutional demand all point to the bull cycle still being alive.
But when it comes to altcoins, Coinbase advises caution — the focus remains on Bitcoin.
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After making a 2x on TON, the DegenPhone team has leveled up: phone numbers can now be created, used, and sold directly on Solana.
— Early TON participants already made big gains, and a bridge between networks is in the works
— Solana joins in with rumored backing from Solana Foundation and 1inch
— Pre-market runs until October 23, 17:00 UTC — prices may skyrocket afterward
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BTC fell 2.5% to $107,460, attempting to close the futures gap on CME. Trading volumes remain low, sentiment is cautious — and the market is increasingly whispering about a possible “$100K test.”
— The CME gap at $107,390 is still not fully closed
— The larger gap near $110K (from late September) has already been filled
— Traders note weakness: each rebound comes with lower volume
“Bulls must hold $107K. If we revisit Friday’s wick, that’s a clear sign of weakness.”
“Didn’t believe in a breakout without volume — and I was right. $100K–$98K is coming.”
“If support breaks — prepare for $95K.”
Bitcoin is stuck between an unfilled gap and a fragile $107K level.
Without upward momentum, the road to $100K is wide open — and even $95K doesn’t look unrealistic.
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Veteran trader Peter Brandt spotted on the BTC chart the same formation that preceded the soybean crash of the 1970s. Back then, the market plunged by 50% — and Brandt hints history might be about to rhyme.
— A “broadening top” pattern is forming — a structure that often ends bull cycles
— MSTR is already down 10%, showing pressure on corporate Bitcoin holdings
— The Fear Index dropped to 25 — panic across the market
— Yet gold is weakening, which could push capital back into crypto
Bottom line: some see a “soybean-style crash,” others — a “perfect accumulation zone.”
In a couple of weeks, we’ll find out whether this was the top… or the pause before another parabolic run.
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Over the past year, public miners’ total debt has skyrocketed from $2.1 billion to $12.7 billion, according to VanEck. The reason: massive purchases of new ASIC rigs and the shift of some facilities toward AI and HPC hosting after the 2024 halving.
— Bitfarms raised $588 million to build AI-focused data centers in North America
— TeraWulf issued $3.2 billion in debt to expand its Lake Mariner campus
— Miners previously relied on equity financing, but are now heavily leveraging debt to boost hashrate
— AI hosting provides long-term stable contracts, reducing exposure to BTC volatility
Bottom line: miners are rearming and restructuring.
The hashrate race is just beginning — and this time, artificial intelligence is in the game.
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