— Long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for 7+ years (their curve has been climbing non-stop since 2016).
— Public companies with wallets of 1,000+ BTC (currently 105 of them, holding ~969K BTC combined).

— Recent buyers with a cost basis of $108K–$116K sold into the bounce.
— Long-term holders are holding, while weak hands have exited.
— Fear & Greed Index = 53 (neutral).

— Historically, every NVT-GC dip into the “long zone” led to price growth.
— BTC is currently sitting just above the STH Realized Price — short-term holders are holding the base.
— Scenario: 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a “push” to new ATH.

— Trump turns the money printer back on to finance the “war with Eurasia” (read: Russia, China, India, Iran).
— The Fed under “his people” = credit growth, money flowing into the economy.
— By his math: every $1 of credit = +0.19% to BTC’s price. End result — $3.4M by 2028.

— Miners produce ~900 BTC per day
— Companies consume 1,755 BTC/day
— ETFs add another 1,430 BTC/day

“The world lived on gold-backed credit for three centuries. The next 300 years — it will be credit backed by digital gold.”

— 640,031 BTC
— Total cost basis: $47.35B
— Average price: $73,983 per coin

Lex Fridman’s interview turned out deeply personal. Pavel opened up again — and at times, in unexpected ways.

🗣 And the finale: “Bitcoin will be worth $1 million.”

— Crypto market cap +3.5%, now $4.16T
— BTC dominance = $2.37T, surpassing Amazon
— October is historically the best month: gains in 10 of the last 12 years

— 640,031 BTC (3.2% of circulation)
— +11,085 BTC in the past 7 weeks
— Latest purchase: 196 BTC on Monday
— 48% of all BTC held by companies (1.32M BTC across 266 firms)

— The $108K–$118K range is a “blessing zone” for re-entries
— Above $125K, Bitcoin enters price discovery mode
— The next technical target sits at $150K

— The U.S. government shutdown is pushing investors away from the dollar into BTC
— The DXY index has dropped 12% YTD, its worst performance in decades
— Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3.2B inflows this week — the second-highest in history

— Gold is up 50% YTD, driven by the weakening dollar and ongoing trade wars
— Bitcoin is “lagging,” but historically gold rallies first
— Younger investors increasingly prefer BTC as a digital store of value instead of gold bars

💬 Matthew Sigel from VanEck: “We expect Bitcoin to reach half of gold’s market capitalization after the next halving.”

💬 Peter Schiff, as usual, grumbles: “Bitcoin is still 15% below its peak in gold terms.”
But according to Theya, the “fair value floor” is already $1.34M.