🤑 Tonzo: $20M Crypto Jackpot Right in Telegram

TON keeps pulling Web3 deeper into Telegram. This week saw the launch of Tonzo — a mini-app with a $20M jackpot and a full toolkit: wallets, referrals, leaderboards, and its own internal economy.

📊 The launch follows clear phases: test → optimise → scale. The focus is on Telegram and KOLs, with expansion to top markets next. Out of 320+ creators, only 86 were selected — no mass clutter, just relevance. A full promo kit is already prepared: videos, memes, CTAs, and community materials.

🤝 Community is run by Surgence: bilingual chats, events, tickets, loot boxes, and even a mascot — Alfonzo — as the official voice of the project. Everything is built so that players don’t just click, but stick around.

⚡️ The idea is simple: Tonzo is a showcase for TON. When crypto is embedded natively in a Mini App, users get a Web3 experience as easily as opening a sticker in Telegram.

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🟠 Bitcoin: “Bullish” Indicators Turn Red

BTC bounced back to $116K, but the picture isn’t pretty — 8 out of 10 bullish indicators tracked by CryptoQuant are now in the red. Analyst JA Maartun notes: “Momentum is clearly cooling off.”

📊 Only two metrics remain positive — demand growth and a “technical signal.” Everything else, including MVRV-Z, PnL indexes, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity, is deep in the negative. The last time this setup appeared was in April, right before the dump to $75K.

⚡️ For comparison: in July, 8 out of 10 indicators were flashing green as Bitcoin rallied to its $122.8K peak. Now, the Bull Score Index hovers around 20–30, while the CBBI shows 74 — meaning three-quarters of the bull cycle may already be behind us.

💬 SignalPlus points out: BTC is lagging behind alts, gold, and equities. Institutional buying has weakened, and fresh capital inflows to exchanges are almost nonexistent.
But podcaster Tony Edward takes a more optimistic view:

“This is just a September correction. Expect a local top in Q4 and the final blow-off in Q1 2026.”

So the dilemma is simple: either BTC is setting another trap before the final run, or the 8 red indicators are a warning that’s too dangerous to ignore.

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🟠 Bitcoin Closes the Week Bullish: Road to $120K?

BTC has once again proven it’s alive: on Sunday, the weekly candle closed above $115K — the first time since late August. For those following Ichimoku, this was a key Tenkan level. Titan of Crypto wrote: “A confirmed close above is a rock-solid bullish signal.”

📊 The last Tenkan breakout in April gave +44% and pushed the price to an ATH of $124.5K. Now the setup looks similar:

— $115K level broken
— Bull flag forming on 4H
— Golden cross between 50 and 200 SMA

Analysts expect a test of $118K early this week, with the flag’s technical target at $122K.

🔥 Macro factors are also on the bulls’ side: the Fed is preparing to cut rates by 25 bps (94% probability). Any hint of a dovish Powell — and BTC could surge toward $120K+.

Meanwhile, the boldest ones, like Jelle, are already pointing to $155K, citing the weekly Stochastic RSI.

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🟠 Fidelity: 42% of Bitcoin Could Be “Frozen” by 2032

Fidelity analyzed holder behavior and concluded: a serious supply crunch is coming. Their forecast shows that by 2032, 8.3M BTC (42% of circulation) will become “illiquid” — effectively unavailable for trading.

📊 Two main “liquidity eaters”:

— Long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for 7+ years (their curve has been climbing non-stop since 2016).
— Public companies with wallets of 1,000+ BTC (currently 105 of them, holding ~969K BTC combined).

According to Fidelity, by 2025 these groups will already lock up more than 6M BTC (28% of the total 21M supply).

🔥 But here’s the twist: right now whales are staging the biggest sell-off since 2022 — $12.7B in the past 30 days. The price only dipped 2%, but the question is obvious: what happens if these “illiquid” players suddenly decide to hit the sell button?

The paradox: the market expects shortage and growth, but short-term whale dumps may shake the price harder than any macro factor.

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🟠 Bitcoin Stuck at $116K: All Eyes on the Fed

Bitfinex stated bluntly: $116K is the new resistance, and until BTC “decisively” breaks it, there’s no path upward. Right now, the price is holding at $116,370, but the market looks drained after August’s ATH of $124.1K.

📊 The picture looks like this:

— Recent buyers with a cost basis of $108K–$116K sold into the bounce.
— Long-term holders are holding, while weak hands have exited.
— Fear & Greed Index = 53 (neutral).

🔥 All eyes are on the Fed: 96% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. Tom Lee expects a “monstrous move” within three months. Analyst Ted paints a gloomier scenario: first a drop to $104K or even $92K, then a new ATH.

The historical catalyst is Q4: since 2013, BTC’s average gain in the final quarter has been 85%. If seasonality repeats, autumn could flip the script.

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🟠 Bitcoin Prepares for “Expansion”: Target $150K?

CryptoQuant is waving the green flag again: the NVT golden cross shows BTC is still far from overheating. The last signal in July (at -2.8) sparked strong growth; now the metric sits at 0.3 — neutral, meaning the market isn’t in a “bubble” yet.

📊 What this means:

— Historically, every NVT-GC dip into the “long zone” led to price growth.
— BTC is currently sitting just above the STH Realized Price — short-term holders are holding the base.
— Scenario: 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a “push” to new ATH.

🔥 Analysts are setting targets from $120K to $150K in the coming months. Pelin Ay writes: “This is a healthy uptrend.” Axel Adler Jr. adds: “Price discovery could return as early as October.”

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🟠 Crypto Payments in Real Life: Now by QR

Crypto Bot has rolled out a new feature — now you can pay for purchases in any store across Russia just by scanning a QR. No joke: crypto from your USDT balance goes straight to the checkout.

The process is simple: scan the QR in the bot → tap “Pay.” That’s it, the transaction takes about eight seconds.

The irony? Crypto used to be a “rainy day stash” for many, and now you can just buy an ice cream or send a couple of dollars to friends “for chips.”

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🟠 $3.4M for Bitcoin by 2028? Hayes laughs

Arthur Hayes shook up the market again with his blog “Four, Seven.” According to him, Bitcoin will be “significantly higher” than the current $113K by 2028. But he calls the $3.4M target “over the top.”

📊 Hayes’s logic:

— Trump turns the money printer back on to finance the “war with Eurasia” (read: Russia, China, India, Iran).
— The Fed under “his people” = credit growth, money flowing into the economy.
— By his math: every $1 of credit = +0.19% to BTC’s price. End result — $3.4M by 2028.

🔥 But Hayes admits: “No, we won’t reach $3.4M. But it will be much higher than $115K, where we are now.” He still holds his $1M forecast, calling Treasury liquidity the main fuel for the crypto market.

💬 Skeptics disagree: Bitwise compared this logic to “a banana, useless for forecasting.” But expectations of Fed easing in October are only fueling the fire.

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🟠 Saylor: Bitcoin will rise again by late 2025

Michael Saylor isn’t changing his tune: corporate and ETF demand is burning through supply faster than miners can create it. On CNBC he noted: “Companies are buying more than miners are producing — that pushes the price upward.”

📊 The numbers are striking:

— Miners produce ~900 BTC per day
— Companies consume 1,755 BTC/day
— ETFs add another 1,430 BTC/day

The result: a net deficit and growing price pressure. Even after $2B in liquidations this week, Saylor stays calm: “We’ll overcome macro headwinds — by year’s end Bitcoin will move smartly upward again.”

🔥 Today, Bitbo’s tracker lists 145 companies holding BTC on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy itself holds 638,985 BTC. Saylor divides them into two camps:
— Operating companies that park cash into Bitcoin instead of dividends and buybacks
— “Pure” treasury firms building the future “digital gold” market

His closing line:

“The world lived on gold-backed credit for three centuries. The next 300 years — it will be credit backed by digital gold.”

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🟠 Strategy buys again: +196 BTC for $22M

Michael Saylor sticks to his plan: while the market panicked below $110K, Strategy added another 196 BTC. The deal totaled $22.1M at an average price of $113,048.

📊 Current holdings:

— 640,031 BTC
— Total cost basis: $47.35B
— Average price: $73,983 per coin

Yes, this is one of Strategy’s smallest weekly buys lately — a clear slowdown in pace. But Saylor remains calm: “After the current resistance and macro pressure, BTC will climb smartly again by year’s end.”

So while retail shivers in fear, Saylor keeps stacking.

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