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— Keeping a close eye on crypto news so you don't miss the next 2009

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🤑 TON promised integration with “one of the most reliable platforms in the world”

Sounds like Visa itself might pop up any minute and say: “Hey, we’re on TON too” 👋

No details yet, just the vague word “reliable.” Reads like a hint at a financial service or exchange. And then OpenSea suddenly showed up on ton-Twitter, with a promo clip flashing a logo suspiciously similar to Notcoin. Coincidence? Yeah, sure 😌

For holders, the signal is clear: integrations like this mean fresh blood and new on/off-ramps. Which means liquidity and attention will follow. But so will fake announcements — no surprise there.

So yeah, keep hammering F5 on TON’s official accounts and filter out the noise. Because every time TON teases a “big integration,” the market either shoots up or crashes on expectations.

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🟠 Bitcoin: market needs $104K for “capitulation”

Bitcoin is once again playing out the classic script: euphoria → correction → panic. Glassnode says it bluntly: for the market to “exhale,” BTC has to drop another $8K down to $104K. Yes, you heard that right — even after $112K, it’s still not enough.

Right now, we’re stuck in the $104K–$114K range 📈📉 Historically, this is the sideways zone after peaks, when the crowd thinks “that’s it, the bear market is here,” but in reality, the market is just resting 📊

Meanwhile, short-term holders (those holding up to six months) turned from geniuses to losers in just one day: at $108K their profit collapsed from 90% to 42%. A legendary moment when a trader with a Batman avatar suddenly writes: “Screw it, I’m selling.”

Glassnode calls this “post-euphoria consolidation.” Sounds fancy, but the simple translation is: the market is shaking nerves and flushing out weak hands. The only real question: are we sliding into a bear market, or is this just another spin on the carousel called the “bull cycle”?

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🤑 Tonzo: $20M Crypto Jackpot Right in Telegram

TON keeps pulling Web3 deeper into Telegram. This week saw the launch of Tonzo — a mini-app with a $20M jackpot and a full toolkit: wallets, referrals, leaderboards, and its own internal economy.

📊 The launch follows clear phases: test → optimise → scale. The focus is on Telegram and KOLs, with expansion to top markets next. Out of 320+ creators, only 86 were selected — no mass clutter, just relevance. A full promo kit is already prepared: videos, memes, CTAs, and community materials.

🤝 Community is run by Surgence: bilingual chats, events, tickets, loot boxes, and even a mascot — Alfonzo — as the official voice of the project. Everything is built so that players don’t just click, but stick around.

⚡️ The idea is simple: Tonzo is a showcase for TON. When crypto is embedded natively in a Mini App, users get a Web3 experience as easily as opening a sticker in Telegram.

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🟠 Bitcoin and the “$360K Supercycle”: Joke or Scenario?

Once again, the chart is drawing magic — a double inverse head-and-shoulders. Analysts are already screaming about “supercycle ignition” with targets at $170K–$360K. Yes, three dips and two “shoulders” — and here’s your ticket to parabolic.

📊 The first pattern — from November 2024, broke out at $112K and points to $170K. The second, a global one, stretches back to March 2021: breakout at $73K, retest in April, target — $360K (+217% from current levels).

🗣 Merlijn The Trader already wrote:
“This is not a pattern. This is supercycle ignition.”


🔥 But the numbers also support it: spot Bitcoin ETFs are alive again. Over three days, $1.15B flowed in, with $752M recorded on Wednesday alone — the highest since July. Retail is panic-selling, while institutions are buying.

And here’s the question: are we really on the edge of a “supercycle,” or is this just another pretty chart that turns into a meme tomorrow?

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🟠 Bitcoin: “Bullish” Indicators Turn Red

BTC bounced back to $116K, but the picture isn’t pretty — 8 out of 10 bullish indicators tracked by CryptoQuant are now in the red. Analyst JA Maartun notes: “Momentum is clearly cooling off.”

📊 Only two metrics remain positive — demand growth and a “technical signal.” Everything else, including MVRV-Z, PnL indexes, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity, is deep in the negative. The last time this setup appeared was in April, right before the dump to $75K.

⚡️ For comparison: in July, 8 out of 10 indicators were flashing green as Bitcoin rallied to its $122.8K peak. Now, the Bull Score Index hovers around 20–30, while the CBBI shows 74 — meaning three-quarters of the bull cycle may already be behind us.

💬 SignalPlus points out: BTC is lagging behind alts, gold, and equities. Institutional buying has weakened, and fresh capital inflows to exchanges are almost nonexistent.
But podcaster Tony Edward takes a more optimistic view:
“This is just a September correction. Expect a local top in Q4 and the final blow-off in Q1 2026.”


So the dilemma is simple: either BTC is setting another trap before the final run, or the 8 red indicators are a warning that’s too dangerous to ignore.

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🟠 Bitcoin Closes the Week Bullish: Road to $120K?

BTC has once again proven it’s alive: on Sunday, the weekly candle closed above $115K — the first time since late August. For those following Ichimoku, this was a key Tenkan level. Titan of Crypto wrote: “A confirmed close above is a rock-solid bullish signal.”

📊 The last Tenkan breakout in April gave +44% and pushed the price to an ATH of $124.5K. Now the setup looks similar:
— $115K level broken
— Bull flag forming on 4H
— Golden cross between 50 and 200 SMA


Analysts expect a test of $118K early this week, with the flag’s technical target at $122K.

🔥 Macro factors are also on the bulls’ side: the Fed is preparing to cut rates by 25 bps (94% probability). Any hint of a dovish Powell — and BTC could surge toward $120K+.

Meanwhile, the boldest ones, like Jelle, are already pointing to $155K, citing the weekly Stochastic RSI.

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🟠 Fidelity: 42% of Bitcoin Could Be “Frozen” by 2032

Fidelity analyzed holder behavior and concluded: a serious supply crunch is coming. Their forecast shows that by 2032, 8.3M BTC (42% of circulation) will become “illiquid” — effectively unavailable for trading.

📊 Two main “liquidity eaters”:
— Long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for 7+ years (their curve has been climbing non-stop since 2016).
— Public companies with wallets of 1,000+ BTC (currently 105 of them, holding ~969K BTC combined).


According to Fidelity, by 2025 these groups will already lock up more than 6M BTC (28% of the total 21M supply).

🔥 But here’s the twist: right now whales are staging the biggest sell-off since 2022 — $12.7B in the past 30 days. The price only dipped 2%, but the question is obvious: what happens if these “illiquid” players suddenly decide to hit the sell button?

The paradox: the market expects shortage and growth, but short-term whale dumps may shake the price harder than any macro factor.

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🟠 Bitcoin Stuck at $116K: All Eyes on the Fed

Bitfinex stated bluntly: $116K is the new resistance, and until BTC “decisively” breaks it, there’s no path upward. Right now, the price is holding at $116,370, but the market looks drained after August’s ATH of $124.1K.

📊 The picture looks like this:
— Recent buyers with a cost basis of $108K–$116K sold into the bounce.
— Long-term holders are holding, while weak hands have exited.
— Fear & Greed Index = 53 (neutral).


🔥 All eyes are on the Fed: 96% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. Tom Lee expects a “monstrous move” within three months. Analyst Ted paints a gloomier scenario: first a drop to $104K or even $92K, then a new ATH.

The historical catalyst is Q4: since 2013, BTC’s average gain in the final quarter has been 85%. If seasonality repeats, autumn could flip the script.

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🟠 Bitcoin: $118K — Ticket to New ATH

BTC is once again testing traders’ nerves. After the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, the market swung sharply: first a dip below $115K, then a quick rebound. In 24 hours, $100M worth of longs and shorts got liquidated.

📊 The key battleground now is $118K.

🗣Michaël van de Poppe writes:
“If we break it — the road to ATH is open.”


🗣 Daan Crypto Trades adds:
“This is a high-volume node, the main trading activity is concentrated here.”


In fact, $118K is the wall that held the market back in August during Powell’s speech. If it breaks, the scenario is simple: a “fast” test of ATH and an altcoin rally.

But for now, exchange order books show a corridor of $116.5K–$119K. Liquidity is building on both sides, and the market is stuck in this range.

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🟠 Bitcoin Prepares for “Expansion”: Target $150K?

CryptoQuant is waving the green flag again: the NVT golden cross shows BTC is still far from overheating. The last signal in July (at -2.8) sparked strong growth; now the metric sits at 0.3 — neutral, meaning the market isn’t in a “bubble” yet.

📊 What this means:
— Historically, every NVT-GC dip into the “long zone” led to price growth.
— BTC is currently sitting just above the STH Realized Price — short-term holders are holding the base.
— Scenario: 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a “push” to new ATH.


🔥 Analysts are setting targets from $120K to $150K in the coming months. Pelin Ay writes: “This is a healthy uptrend.” Axel Adler Jr. adds: “Price discovery could return as early as October.”

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🟠 Crypto Payments in Real Life: Now by QR

Crypto Bot has rolled out a new feature — now you can pay for purchases in any store across Russia just by scanning a QR. No joke: crypto from your USDT balance goes straight to the checkout.

The process is simple: scan the QR in the bot → tap “Pay.” That’s it, the transaction takes about eight seconds.

The irony? Crypto used to be a “rainy day stash” for many, and now you can just buy an ice cream or send a couple of dollars to friends “for chips.”

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🟠 $3.4M for Bitcoin by 2028? Hayes laughs

Arthur Hayes shook up the market again with his blog “Four, Seven.” According to him, Bitcoin will be “significantly higher” than the current $113K by 2028. But he calls the $3.4M target “over the top.”

📊 Hayes’s logic:
— Trump turns the money printer back on to finance the “war with Eurasia” (read: Russia, China, India, Iran).
— The Fed under “his people” = credit growth, money flowing into the economy.
— By his math: every $1 of credit = +0.19% to BTC’s price. End result — $3.4M by 2028.


🔥 But Hayes admits: “No, we won’t reach $3.4M. But it will be much higher than $115K, where we are now.” He still holds his $1M forecast, calling Treasury liquidity the main fuel for the crypto market.

💬 Skeptics disagree: Bitwise compared this logic to “a banana, useless for forecasting.” But expectations of Fed easing in October are only fueling the fire.

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🟠 Saylor: Bitcoin will rise again by late 2025

Michael Saylor isn’t changing his tune: corporate and ETF demand is burning through supply faster than miners can create it. On CNBC he noted: “Companies are buying more than miners are producing — that pushes the price upward.”

📊 The numbers are striking:
— Miners produce ~900 BTC per day
— Companies consume 1,755 BTC/day
— ETFs add another 1,430 BTC/day


The result: a net deficit and growing price pressure. Even after $2B in liquidations this week, Saylor stays calm: “We’ll overcome macro headwinds — by year’s end Bitcoin will move smartly upward again.”

🔥 Today, Bitbo’s tracker lists 145 companies holding BTC on their balance sheets. MicroStrategy itself holds 638,985 BTC. Saylor divides them into two camps:
— Operating companies that park cash into Bitcoin instead of dividends and buybacks
— “Pure” treasury firms building the future “digital gold” market

His closing line:
“The world lived on gold-backed credit for three centuries. The next 300 years — it will be credit backed by digital gold.”


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🟠 Why Bitcoin Stalls While Gold and Stocks Hit ATH

BTC and altcoins once again look like poor relatives: gold and the stock market are setting records, while crypto is stuck in a sideways trend. CryptoQuant points to four reasons why the “rocket” isn’t taking off:

📉 1. Fed Effect
After rate cuts, capital first flows into liquid assets — gold and stocks. Crypto is always at the end of this pipeline.

💵 2. Stablecoins leaving exchanges
Yes, stablecoin supply is at a record $308B. But they’re not flowing to exchanges: liquidity is parked in bridges and private markets. Result: there’s simply no fuel to buy BTC/ETH.

⚖️ 3. Leverage and hedging

Traders prefer to hedge through derivatives rather than accumulate. Classic flat behavior: everyone waits for someone else to move the market.

📊 4. Historical lag
Bitcoin always lags behind stocks and gold. But then it catches up: +12% within 30 days and +35% within 90 days after an equity ATH.

⚡️ Bottom line: right now it’s a “lag,” next comes the “leap.” But before that, expect short shocks: QT, Treasury liquidity absorption, and Friday’s $22.6B options expiry.

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🟠 Fear Index: hitting lows at $83K

Bitcoin spooked the crowd again — the Fear & Greed Index dropped to 28/100, the lowest since April. Back then BTC was $83K, today it’s under $109K, but sentiment feels like the bottom.

📊 Facts:
— Index fell 16 points in a day
— In April, at the same level, the market reversed after $75K
— Now the price is $25K higher, but fear is the same


🗣 Michael Pizzino writes: “More fear — and a higher price. That’s divergence.” Other analysts are cautious: yes, it looks like a reversal, but no confirmation yet.

🔥 Santiment notes: retail is screaming about a drop, which often means growth is more likely. Meanwhile, big traders are already adding positions.

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