BTC has once again triggered a rare indicator that historically appears only during local reversals. This time, the focus is on short-term holders.
Frank Fetter of Vibes Capital writes:
“We’ve officially got an Oversold print on short-term holders. This happened only twice this year — both times it coincided with a market bottom.”
The STH-MVRV broke below the lower Bollinger Band, pointing to oversold conditions. Similar cases include:
On lower timeframes, RSI is forming a bullish divergence, hinting at a rebound. But on the daily, MVRV has already shown a death cross — selling pressure is still strong.
The market is on edge. Either STH will once again save BTC, as before, or we’re going deeper to search for a true bottom.
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Big players are once again expanding their crypto reserves. This week, three companies showed that the trend of “corporations buying BTC” is not just alive — it’s accelerating.
The company issued 220M shares and raised $55M to buy 500 BTC. CEO Wang Jianshuang said:
“We intend to continue building reserves and creating bridges between AI and the crypto ecosystem.”
— Purchased 4,048 BTC for $449M at an average price of $110,981
— Total holdings: 636,505 BTC — the largest corporate wallet in the world
— Approved a capital restructuring for future billion-dollar rounds
— Already holds 20,000 BTC, ranking sixth among public companies
The only question: who will be next to follow in the footsteps of Saylor and Metaplanet?
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American Bitcoin (ABTC), linked to Eric and Donald Trump Jr., had wild swings on its debut: the stock soared +91%, crashed into the red, and still closed with a +16% gain.
“This is an incredible day and the result of enormous work. The FOMO is only beginning.”
On criticism over his father’s politics:
“This is illegitimate. I myself was debanked in the US — that’s why I got into this business. My father has nothing to do with it.”
So now America has its own “Trump-coin,” only via shares. And turbulence is just getting started.
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BTC is hanging on the edge — $112K not yet broken, with a key U.S. labor market report ahead.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin tried to break above $112,600, but the Asian session dragged the price back down to $109,329. Pressure increased after weak hiring data: ADP showed only +54K new jobs versus the expected 75K.
The main labor market report comes out Friday. Economists expect +80K jobs, but there’s risk of a miss. Already today, official stats recorded more unemployed (7.24M) than employed (7.18M).
For Bitcoiners, this could be a trigger. A cooling labor market = reason for the Fed to cut rates. And the market is almost certain: probability of a September cut is 97.6% according to CME FedWatch.
Despite the fear, Hyblock data shows both retail and institutions keep buying spot. Liquidations cluster around $109K–$111,200, where short sellers are locking in profits.
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Sounds funny, especially for those who just caught -20% on alts yesterday. But facts are stubborn things.
But if you’ve got the guts to sit for 3+ years — the chance of losing approaches zero.
Glassnode and Bitwise crunched the data from 2010 to 2025 and came to a simple conclusion: traders think they’re smarter than the market, but the market just laughs. In Bitcoin, the winners aren’t the ones yelling “long/short,” but the ones patient enough to endure cycles.
So yes, holders still look like boring nerds. But they’re the ones walking away with profits while the rest of us are drawing arrows and hunting for the “perfect entry.”
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Sounds like Visa itself might pop up any minute and say: “Hey, we’re on TON too”
No details yet, just the vague word “reliable.” Reads like a hint at a financial service or exchange. And then OpenSea suddenly showed up on ton-Twitter, with a promo clip flashing a logo suspiciously similar to Notcoin. Coincidence? Yeah, sure
For holders, the signal is clear: integrations like this mean fresh blood and new on/off-ramps. Which means liquidity and attention will follow. But so will fake announcements — no surprise there.
So yeah, keep hammering F5 on TON’s official accounts and filter out the noise. Because every time TON teases a “big integration,” the market either shoots up or crashes on expectations.
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Bitcoin is once again playing out the classic script: euphoria → correction → panic. Glassnode says it bluntly: for the market to “exhale,” BTC has to drop another $8K down to $104K. Yes, you heard that right — even after $112K, it’s still not enough.
Right now, we’re stuck in the $104K–$114K range
Meanwhile, short-term holders (those holding up to six months) turned from geniuses to losers in just one day: at $108K their profit collapsed from 90% to 42%. A legendary moment when a trader with a Batman avatar suddenly writes: “Screw it, I’m selling.”
Glassnode calls this “post-euphoria consolidation.” Sounds fancy, but the simple translation is: the market is shaking nerves and flushing out weak hands. The only real question: are we sliding into a bear market, or is this just another spin on the carousel called the “bull cycle”?
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TON keeps pulling Web3 deeper into Telegram. This week saw the launch of Tonzo — a mini-app with a $20M jackpot and a full toolkit: wallets, referrals, leaderboards, and its own internal economy.
⚡️ The idea is simple: Tonzo is a showcase for TON. When crypto is embedded natively in a Mini App, users get a Web3 experience as easily as opening a sticker in Telegram.
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Once again, the chart is drawing magic — a double inverse head-and-shoulders. Analysts are already screaming about “supercycle ignition” with targets at $170K–$360K. Yes, three dips and two “shoulders” — and here’s your ticket to parabolic.
“This is not a pattern. This is supercycle ignition.”
And here’s the question: are we really on the edge of a “supercycle,” or is this just another pretty chart that turns into a meme tomorrow?
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BTC bounced back to $116K, but the picture isn’t pretty — 8 out of 10 bullish indicators tracked by CryptoQuant are now in the red. Analyst JA Maartun notes: “Momentum is clearly cooling off.”
But podcaster Tony Edward takes a more optimistic view:
“This is just a September correction. Expect a local top in Q4 and the final blow-off in Q1 2026.”
So the dilemma is simple: either BTC is setting another trap before the final run, or the 8 red indicators are a warning that’s too dangerous to ignore.
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BTC has once again proven it’s alive: on Sunday, the weekly candle closed above $115K — the first time since late August. For those following Ichimoku, this was a key Tenkan level. Titan of Crypto wrote: “A confirmed close above is a rock-solid bullish signal.”
— $115K level broken
— Bull flag forming on 4H
— Golden cross between 50 and 200 SMA
Analysts expect a test of $118K early this week, with the flag’s technical target at $122K.
Meanwhile, the boldest ones, like Jelle, are already pointing to $155K, citing the weekly Stochastic RSI.
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Fidelity analyzed holder behavior and concluded: a serious supply crunch is coming. Their forecast shows that by 2032, 8.3M BTC (42% of circulation) will become “illiquid” — effectively unavailable for trading.
— Long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for 7+ years (their curve has been climbing non-stop since 2016).
— Public companies with wallets of 1,000+ BTC (currently 105 of them, holding ~969K BTC combined).
According to Fidelity, by 2025 these groups will already lock up more than 6M BTC (28% of the total 21M supply).
The paradox: the market expects shortage and growth, but short-term whale dumps may shake the price harder than any macro factor.
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Bitfinex stated bluntly: $116K is the new resistance, and until BTC “decisively” breaks it, there’s no path upward. Right now, the price is holding at $116,370, but the market looks drained after August’s ATH of $124.1K.
— Recent buyers with a cost basis of $108K–$116K sold into the bounce.
— Long-term holders are holding, while weak hands have exited.
— Fear & Greed Index = 53 (neutral).
The historical catalyst is Q4: since 2013, BTC’s average gain in the final quarter has been 85%. If seasonality repeats, autumn could flip the script.
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BTC is once again testing traders’ nerves. After the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, the market swung sharply: first a dip below $115K, then a quick rebound. In 24 hours, $100M worth of longs and shorts got liquidated.
“If we break it — the road to ATH is open.”
“This is a high-volume node, the main trading activity is concentrated here.”
In fact, $118K is the wall that held the market back in August during Powell’s speech. If it breaks, the scenario is simple: a “fast” test of ATH and an altcoin rally.
But for now, exchange order books show a corridor of $116.5K–$119K. Liquidity is building on both sides, and the market is stuck in this range.
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CryptoQuant is waving the green flag again: the NVT golden cross shows BTC is still far from overheating. The last signal in July (at -2.8) sparked strong growth; now the metric sits at 0.3 — neutral, meaning the market isn’t in a “bubble” yet.
— Historically, every NVT-GC dip into the “long zone” led to price growth.
— BTC is currently sitting just above the STH Realized Price — short-term holders are holding the base.
— Scenario: 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a “push” to new ATH.
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Crypto Bot has rolled out a new feature — now you can pay for purchases in any store across Russia just by scanning a QR. No joke: crypto from your USDT balance goes straight to the checkout.
The process is simple: scan the QR in the bot → tap “Pay.” That’s it, the transaction takes about eight seconds.
The irony? Crypto used to be a “rainy day stash” for many, and now you can just buy an ice cream or send a couple of dollars to friends “for chips.”
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Arthur Hayes shook up the market again with his blog “Four, Seven.” According to him, Bitcoin will be “significantly higher” than the current $113K by 2028. But he calls the $3.4M target “over the top.”
— Trump turns the money printer back on to finance the “war with Eurasia” (read: Russia, China, India, Iran).
— The Fed under “his people” = credit growth, money flowing into the economy.
— By his math: every $1 of credit = +0.19% to BTC’s price. End result — $3.4M by 2028.
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