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🟠 MVRV sends a warning: “death cross” on the chart

Bitcoin is once again under analysts’ scrutiny. This time, the reason is the MVRV indicator — it recorded a “death cross” between the 30- and 365-day moving averages. The last time this happened was in 2021, and the outcome was grim: a 77% drop from $69K to $15.5K.

🗣 Analyst CryptoQuant Yonsei_dent writes:
“MVRV momentum shows clear signs of exhaustion… history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.”


📊 Ali Martinez adds:
“The death cross signals a macro shift from positive to negative.”
Forecasts in such a scenario sound harsh — from $105K down to $60K if the market enters a full bear cycle.


But it’s not all doom. The MVRV Z-score is far from the danger zone. Historically, peaks occurred at values of 7–9. Now — only 2.

🗣 Stockmoney Lizards remind:
“We’re nowhere near the overheating zone. People aren’t sitting on massive unrealized profits like in previous cycles. That means — there’s still room for growth.”


⚡️ Bottom line: the market is balancing between “death cross” fears and the cold facts of on-chain data. The ceiling may not be $124K but as high as $260K if the bullish scenario plays out fully.

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🟠 Bitcoin and the “Bottom at $107K” Signal

BTC has once again triggered a rare indicator that historically appears only during local reversals. This time, the focus is on short-term holders.

📉 STH Capitulation

Frank Fetter of Vibes Capital writes:
“We’ve officially got an Oversold print on short-term holders. This happened only twice this year — both times it coincided with a market bottom.”


The STH-MVRV broke below the lower Bollinger Band, pointing to oversold conditions. Similar cases include:
🟡 August 2024, during the yen carry trade unwind
🟡 April 2025, amid U.S. tariffs and BTC’s drop below $75K

📊 Current situation
🟡 Bitcoin has dropped to $107K, with the realized price of short-term holders matching spot
🟡 This zone usually becomes support in a bull cycle
🟡 Losing it increases the risk of prolonged weakness

⌨️ What the charts say

On lower timeframes, RSI is forming a bullish divergence, hinting at a rebound. But on the daily, MVRV has already shown a death cross — selling pressure is still strong.

The market is on edge. Either STH will once again save BTC, as before, or we’re going deeper to search for a true bottom.

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🪙 CIMG, Strategy, and Metaplanet: Corporate Bitcoin Hunt Continues

Big players are once again expanding their crypto reserves. This week, three companies showed that the trend of “corporations buying BTC” is not just alive — it’s accelerating.

📊 CIMG Inc

The company issued 220M shares and raised $55M to buy 500 BTC. CEO Wang Jianshuang said:
“We intend to continue building reserves and creating bridges between AI and the crypto ecosystem.”


🟡 Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy)
— Purchased 4,048 BTC for $449M at an average price of $110,981
— Total holdings: 636,505 BTC — the largest corporate wallet in the world

🟡 Metaplanet (Japan)
— Approved a capital restructuring for future billion-dollar rounds
— Already holds 20,000 BTC, ranking sixth among public companies

🔥 Against the backdrop of record U.S. debt and a weakening dollar, corporate balance sheets are increasingly turning into Bitcoin treasuries.

The only question: who will be next to follow in the footsteps of Saylor and Metaplanet?

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🟠 American Bitcoin: first day on Nasdaq with drama and profit

American Bitcoin (ABTC), linked to Eric and Donald Trump Jr., had wild swings on its debut: the stock soared +91%, crashed into the red, and still closed with a +16% gain.

📉 Trading and volatility

🟡 Start: $6.90 → peak $13.20 → drop to $6.72
🟡 Close: +16.5% at $8.45 in after-hours
🟡 Nasdaq halted trading five times due to overheating

📊 What’s behind the project

🟡 American Bitcoin emerged through a merger with Gryphon Digital Mining
🟡 The company holds 2,443 BTC ($273M), ranking 25th among public holders
🟡 Model: hybrid — mining and purchasing Bitcoin for treasury

🗣Eric Trump on the launch:
“This is an incredible day and the result of enormous work. The FOMO is only beginning.”


On criticism over his father’s politics:
“This is illegitimate. I myself was debanked in the US — that’s why I got into this business. My father has nothing to do with it.”


🔥 Context

🟡 This is the Trump family’s second crypto move in a week: their World Liberty Financial (WLFI) token just listed on exchanges (but already dropped -30%).
🟡 The company valued Eric Trump’s stake at ~$548M.

So now America has its own “Trump-coin,” only via shares. And turbulence is just getting started.

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🪙 Bitcoin and the U.S. labor market: all eyes on Friday

BTC is hanging on the edge — $112K not yet broken, with a key U.S. labor market report ahead.

📉 What’s happening now

On Wednesday, Bitcoin tried to break above $112,600, but the Asian session dragged the price back down to $109,329. Pressure increased after weak hiring data: ADP showed only +54K new jobs versus the expected 75K.

📊 Why it matters

The main labor market report comes out Friday. Economists expect +80K jobs, but there’s risk of a miss. Already today, official stats recorded more unemployed (7.24M) than employed (7.18M).

For Bitcoiners, this could be a trigger. A cooling labor market = reason for the Fed to cut rates. And the market is almost certain: probability of a September cut is 97.6% according to CME FedWatch.

🔥 What traders are doing

Despite the fear, Hyblock data shows both retail and institutions keep buying spot. Liquidations cluster around $109K–$111,200, where short sellers are locking in profits.

📈 If Friday’s report turns out weak, the Fed could speed up its pivot — giving BTC a chance to reclaim $112K and attempt a move back to $120K.

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🟠 You know, in Bitcoin it’s almost impossible to lose money.

Sounds funny, especially for those who just caught -20% on alts yesterday. But facts are stubborn things.

🟡 Intraday? You close at a loss 47% of the time.
🟡 Hold for a month? Down to 42%.
🟡 A year? Only 24%.
But if you’ve got the guts to sit for 3+ years — the chance of losing approaches zero.

Glassnode and Bitwise crunched the data from 2010 to 2025 and came to a simple conclusion: traders think they’re smarter than the market, but the market just laughs. In Bitcoin, the winners aren’t the ones yelling “long/short,” but the ones patient enough to endure cycles.

So yes, holders still look like boring nerds. But they’re the ones walking away with profits while the rest of us are drawing arrows and hunting for the “perfect entry.”

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🤑 TON promised integration with “one of the most reliable platforms in the world”

Sounds like Visa itself might pop up any minute and say: “Hey, we’re on TON too” 👋

No details yet, just the vague word “reliable.” Reads like a hint at a financial service or exchange. And then OpenSea suddenly showed up on ton-Twitter, with a promo clip flashing a logo suspiciously similar to Notcoin. Coincidence? Yeah, sure 😌

For holders, the signal is clear: integrations like this mean fresh blood and new on/off-ramps. Which means liquidity and attention will follow. But so will fake announcements — no surprise there.

So yeah, keep hammering F5 on TON’s official accounts and filter out the noise. Because every time TON teases a “big integration,” the market either shoots up or crashes on expectations.

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🟠 Bitcoin: market needs $104K for “capitulation”

Bitcoin is once again playing out the classic script: euphoria → correction → panic. Glassnode says it bluntly: for the market to “exhale,” BTC has to drop another $8K down to $104K. Yes, you heard that right — even after $112K, it’s still not enough.

Right now, we’re stuck in the $104K–$114K range 📈📉 Historically, this is the sideways zone after peaks, when the crowd thinks “that’s it, the bear market is here,” but in reality, the market is just resting 📊

Meanwhile, short-term holders (those holding up to six months) turned from geniuses to losers in just one day: at $108K their profit collapsed from 90% to 42%. A legendary moment when a trader with a Batman avatar suddenly writes: “Screw it, I’m selling.”

Glassnode calls this “post-euphoria consolidation.” Sounds fancy, but the simple translation is: the market is shaking nerves and flushing out weak hands. The only real question: are we sliding into a bear market, or is this just another spin on the carousel called the “bull cycle”?

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🤑 Tonzo: $20M Crypto Jackpot Right in Telegram

TON keeps pulling Web3 deeper into Telegram. This week saw the launch of Tonzo — a mini-app with a $20M jackpot and a full toolkit: wallets, referrals, leaderboards, and its own internal economy.

📊 The launch follows clear phases: test → optimise → scale. The focus is on Telegram and KOLs, with expansion to top markets next. Out of 320+ creators, only 86 were selected — no mass clutter, just relevance. A full promo kit is already prepared: videos, memes, CTAs, and community materials.

🤝 Community is run by Surgence: bilingual chats, events, tickets, loot boxes, and even a mascot — Alfonzo — as the official voice of the project. Everything is built so that players don’t just click, but stick around.

⚡️ The idea is simple: Tonzo is a showcase for TON. When crypto is embedded natively in a Mini App, users get a Web3 experience as easily as opening a sticker in Telegram.

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🟠 Bitcoin and the “$360K Supercycle”: Joke or Scenario?

Once again, the chart is drawing magic — a double inverse head-and-shoulders. Analysts are already screaming about “supercycle ignition” with targets at $170K–$360K. Yes, three dips and two “shoulders” — and here’s your ticket to parabolic.

📊 The first pattern — from November 2024, broke out at $112K and points to $170K. The second, a global one, stretches back to March 2021: breakout at $73K, retest in April, target — $360K (+217% from current levels).

🗣 Merlijn The Trader already wrote:
“This is not a pattern. This is supercycle ignition.”


🔥 But the numbers also support it: spot Bitcoin ETFs are alive again. Over three days, $1.15B flowed in, with $752M recorded on Wednesday alone — the highest since July. Retail is panic-selling, while institutions are buying.

And here’s the question: are we really on the edge of a “supercycle,” or is this just another pretty chart that turns into a meme tomorrow?

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🟠 Bitcoin: “Bullish” Indicators Turn Red

BTC bounced back to $116K, but the picture isn’t pretty — 8 out of 10 bullish indicators tracked by CryptoQuant are now in the red. Analyst JA Maartun notes: “Momentum is clearly cooling off.”

📊 Only two metrics remain positive — demand growth and a “technical signal.” Everything else, including MVRV-Z, PnL indexes, network activity, and stablecoin liquidity, is deep in the negative. The last time this setup appeared was in April, right before the dump to $75K.

⚡️ For comparison: in July, 8 out of 10 indicators were flashing green as Bitcoin rallied to its $122.8K peak. Now, the Bull Score Index hovers around 20–30, while the CBBI shows 74 — meaning three-quarters of the bull cycle may already be behind us.

💬 SignalPlus points out: BTC is lagging behind alts, gold, and equities. Institutional buying has weakened, and fresh capital inflows to exchanges are almost nonexistent.
But podcaster Tony Edward takes a more optimistic view:
“This is just a September correction. Expect a local top in Q4 and the final blow-off in Q1 2026.”


So the dilemma is simple: either BTC is setting another trap before the final run, or the 8 red indicators are a warning that’s too dangerous to ignore.

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🟠 Bitcoin Closes the Week Bullish: Road to $120K?

BTC has once again proven it’s alive: on Sunday, the weekly candle closed above $115K — the first time since late August. For those following Ichimoku, this was a key Tenkan level. Titan of Crypto wrote: “A confirmed close above is a rock-solid bullish signal.”

📊 The last Tenkan breakout in April gave +44% and pushed the price to an ATH of $124.5K. Now the setup looks similar:
— $115K level broken
— Bull flag forming on 4H
— Golden cross between 50 and 200 SMA


Analysts expect a test of $118K early this week, with the flag’s technical target at $122K.

🔥 Macro factors are also on the bulls’ side: the Fed is preparing to cut rates by 25 bps (94% probability). Any hint of a dovish Powell — and BTC could surge toward $120K+.

Meanwhile, the boldest ones, like Jelle, are already pointing to $155K, citing the weekly Stochastic RSI.

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🟠 Fidelity: 42% of Bitcoin Could Be “Frozen” by 2032

Fidelity analyzed holder behavior and concluded: a serious supply crunch is coming. Their forecast shows that by 2032, 8.3M BTC (42% of circulation) will become “illiquid” — effectively unavailable for trading.

📊 Two main “liquidity eaters”:
— Long-term holders who haven’t moved coins for 7+ years (their curve has been climbing non-stop since 2016).
— Public companies with wallets of 1,000+ BTC (currently 105 of them, holding ~969K BTC combined).


According to Fidelity, by 2025 these groups will already lock up more than 6M BTC (28% of the total 21M supply).

🔥 But here’s the twist: right now whales are staging the biggest sell-off since 2022 — $12.7B in the past 30 days. The price only dipped 2%, but the question is obvious: what happens if these “illiquid” players suddenly decide to hit the sell button?

The paradox: the market expects shortage and growth, but short-term whale dumps may shake the price harder than any macro factor.

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🟠 Bitcoin Stuck at $116K: All Eyes on the Fed

Bitfinex stated bluntly: $116K is the new resistance, and until BTC “decisively” breaks it, there’s no path upward. Right now, the price is holding at $116,370, but the market looks drained after August’s ATH of $124.1K.

📊 The picture looks like this:
— Recent buyers with a cost basis of $108K–$116K sold into the bounce.
— Long-term holders are holding, while weak hands have exited.
— Fear & Greed Index = 53 (neutral).


🔥 All eyes are on the Fed: 96% chance of a 25 bps rate cut. Tom Lee expects a “monstrous move” within three months. Analyst Ted paints a gloomier scenario: first a drop to $104K or even $92K, then a new ATH.

The historical catalyst is Q4: since 2013, BTC’s average gain in the final quarter has been 85%. If seasonality repeats, autumn could flip the script.

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🟠 Bitcoin: $118K — Ticket to New ATH

BTC is once again testing traders’ nerves. After the Fed cut rates by 0.25%, the market swung sharply: first a dip below $115K, then a quick rebound. In 24 hours, $100M worth of longs and shorts got liquidated.

📊 The key battleground now is $118K.

🗣Michaël van de Poppe writes:
“If we break it — the road to ATH is open.”


🗣 Daan Crypto Trades adds:
“This is a high-volume node, the main trading activity is concentrated here.”


In fact, $118K is the wall that held the market back in August during Powell’s speech. If it breaks, the scenario is simple: a “fast” test of ATH and an altcoin rally.

But for now, exchange order books show a corridor of $116.5K–$119K. Liquidity is building on both sides, and the market is stuck in this range.

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🟠 Bitcoin Prepares for “Expansion”: Target $150K?

CryptoQuant is waving the green flag again: the NVT golden cross shows BTC is still far from overheating. The last signal in July (at -2.8) sparked strong growth; now the metric sits at 0.3 — neutral, meaning the market isn’t in a “bubble” yet.

📊 What this means:
— Historically, every NVT-GC dip into the “long zone” led to price growth.
— BTC is currently sitting just above the STH Realized Price — short-term holders are holding the base.
— Scenario: 1–2 weeks of consolidation before a “push” to new ATH.


🔥 Analysts are setting targets from $120K to $150K in the coming months. Pelin Ay writes: “This is a healthy uptrend.” Axel Adler Jr. adds: “Price discovery could return as early as October.”

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