🖥 Cryptocurrency Market 2024: Mid-Year Review

According to CoinMarketCap (CMC) data for the first half of 2024, the global cryptocurrency market capitalization was $2.3 trillion, down 14.5% compared to the second quarter. However, 24-hour trading volume increased to $79.4 billion, a 223% rise compared to the previous quarter.

What else was interesting in the first half of the year?

🟠 Market Sentiment and Bitcoin Dominance

The CMC Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index, which measures market sentiment based on the price and trading activity of several large-cap coins, stands at 49 (neutral).

In the second quarter, sentiment shifted towards fear. It hit a particularly low point on July 9, when the fear level reached 28! 🧭

Bitcoin dominance is at 53%, indicating no signs of an altcoin season. Liquidity decreased by 18.5% over the past month.

Market activity in April and May calmed down after the March price spike, showing characteristics of a "bearish phase" within the prevailing bull market.

⌛️Is History Repeating?

Yes, it is repeating:

⚫️ In the early stages of a bull rally, Bitcoin has historically led the market, with its market dominance (BTC) increasing. BTC rose from 38.4% in November 2022 to 54% in this cycle.

⚫️ An increase in stablecoin supply, indicating capital inflows into the crypto markets, signals the start of a bull market. Since the beginning of 2024, the stablecoin supply has grown by 19.8%.

⚫️ A reduction in BTC supply on exchanges was also observed in the 2021 bull cycle as investors moved BTC to cold wallets for long-term storage. This trend continues today.

No, it is not repeating:

⚫️ The current downturn in the bull cycle is less severe than previous cycles, with a maximum drawdown of 18% compared to over 50% in 2021. This could be due to capital flows into BTC ETFs.

⚫️ BTC reached an all-time high of $73,000 before the halving. In all previous cycles, BTC reached ATH only after the halving due to a supply shock.

⚫️ This unprecedented growth was primarily driven by institutional inflows from spot BTC ETFs.

📈 Who is Driving the Market?

Currently, the driving forces of the bull market are crypto enthusiasts and institutional investors. Total institutional inflows exceeded $17.1 billion, with $16.7 billion invested in Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, retail user indicators, such as Google search trends, new YouTube subscribers using cryptocurrency, and App Store rankings, show that most retail users have yet to enter the market.

🕯 Which Sectors are Growing?

89% of sectors experienced a negative change in market capitalization, with more than 30 industries falling by 20-40%.

Only three sectors showed positive growth in the second quarter, highlighting challenging market conditions:

😀 Solana ecosystem: +20 new tokens in Q2
😀 Ethereum ecosystem: +14 new tokens
😀 Derivatives: +5 and stablecoins +4

In the first half of 2024, the cryptocurrency market showed mixed trends:

💬 Capitalization decreased by 14.5%, but 24-hour trading volume increased by 223% 📉

💬 Bitcoin continues to dominate, occupying 53% of the market, while market sentiment shifted from greed to fear 😰

💬 Ecosystems like Solana and Ethereum showed positive growth, despite overall liquidity decline and slowed activity in other sectors 🔼

In upcoming posts, we will continue to analyze key points from CMC 2024 H1. So stay tuned... 📝

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🖥 3 Reports and All About Artificial Intelligence

The topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its impact on the economy continues to attract attention and even generate hype. Well-known analysts are also weighing in. Recently, three significant reports were published: two from Goldman Sachs and one from JPMorgan.

Interestingly, the two reports from Goldman Sachs have opposing views, but let's dive into the details...

1️⃣ Report from Goldman Sachs, May 13, 2024:

This report presents a very positive outlook on AI's prospects for the economy. It highlights the significant potential of AI to stimulate economic growth and boost productivity 📈

Key facts include. AI could add up to 7% to global GDP in the next 10 years.
Companies investing in AI may see a productivity increase of 20-30%.

2️⃣ Report from JPMorgan, May 23, 2024:

Here, AI's prospects for the economy are not just significant, they are radiant. The report focuses on investments in the next phase of AI, including hardware, software, and services.

Key facts from the report:

— Recommendations to invest in AI hardware, including chips and servers.
— The AI services market is expected to grow to $500 billion by 2030.

3️⃣ Report from Goldman Sachs, June 25, 2024:

In contrast, this report suggests that AI's prospects for the economy are not so bright and are heavily overrated, which is very interesting given the first report. It assesses the risk of overestimating AI's impact on the economy and the potential costs involved.

Key arguments include:

— Overestimation of AI expectations could lead to market corrections.
— Warning that the costs of AI may exceed expected profits.

👀 Is the Analysis Objective?

Upon examining all three reports, it becomes clear that they are more likely tools for market influence than objective analysis. The differing assessments of AI's prospects may be attempts to manipulate market expectations ❗️

- May 13: Goldman Sachs took the lead in the AI market with a positive report.
- May 23: JPMorgan, not wanting to fall behind, released its report, presenting a very promising outlook for AI.
- June 25: Goldman Sachs changed its stance, issuing a report that no longer viewed AI's prospects as bright.

⚠️ The AI market continues to evolve, and its prospects remain uncertain. However, relying on conflicting reports used to manipulate the market is not advisable.

It remains crucial to conduct your own analysis and consider long-term trends and the real outcomes of AI implementation.

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🖥 Continuing our dive into the CoinMarketCap (CMC) report on crypto market vibes

In our last post, we covered the cool stuff that happened in the first half of 2024.

Today, we're gonna dig into the current market mood and try to figure out what's popping right now 📣

What's hot in crypto?

1️⃣ Meme coins are on fire

For the first time ever, meme coins are the top dogs in the crypto world, beating out smart contracts, DeFi, and NFTs. Meme coins made up around 23% of page views on CoinMarketCap, racking up over 25 million views in June.

2️⃣ Solana's hype train is rolling

The Solana ecosystem is catching more eyes than Ethereum. Since October 2023, SOL meme coins have been blowing up, with major popularity and price bumps.

🧬 Solana hasn't knocked Ethereum off its throne yet, but the growing buzz shows it's becoming a big player in the crypto game.

3️⃣ AI hype is cooling off

The AI trend is losing steam. After peaking in February, its popularity has dropped, hitting just 6.4% in June.

4️⃣ Crypto is getting back to basics

In the Ethereum world, away from the meme coin craze, the main stories are about real-world assets (RWA) and distributed AI computing.

These trends highlight Ethereum's push to bridge traditional finance with blockchain tech.

💵 The DeFi sector is also going back to its roots, with stablecoins taking the spotlight. Stablecoins offer a safe and predictable way for transactions, savings, and lending.

🌐 What's trending globally?

Analysts have noticed a big shift towards meme coins from more "traditional" cryptos.

They also spotted the market share leaders among meme-token-focused countries:

🇺🇸 USA — 15.54%
🇧🇷 Brazil — 9%
🇮🇳 India — 7.57%
🇮🇩 Indonesia — 6.5%
🇩🇪 Germany — 6.4%
🇷🇺 Russia — 6.2%

Meanwhile, countries like the UK and France are still more into BTC/ETH, DeFi, infrastructure, and institutional markets.

These countries are seeing a drop in the market share of crypto users.

ℹ️ So, what's the deal?

All the data shows that meme coins have snagged the spotlight in the crypto community, Solana is gaining steam, and the AI hype is starting to fizzle out.

Ethereum keeps its eyes on real-world assets and AI, while DeFi is going back to its origins with stablecoins.

In our next post, we'll break down the current state of each sector.

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👮‍♂️ $200M from 25 Hacks: The Secrets of Lazarus Group's Money Laundering Over 3 Years

The Lazarus Group, also known as Bluenoroff or APT38, is a North Korean state-sponsored threat group active since 2009, known for financially motivated cyberattacks.

🔍 This article highlights 25 hacks from August 2020 to October 2023, tracing funds laundered through P2P marketplaces into fiat currency.

🌐 Previously: Sony Pictures Hack

Initially famous for the Sony Pictures hack (2014) and the $81M theft from Bangladesh Bank (2016), the group recently shifted its focus to the cryptocurrency industry.

Reports estimate that since 2017, Lazarus has stolen between $3B and $4.1B.

Key Incidents and Laundering Methods from 2020-2023

➡️ 2020 Hacks: CoinBerry, Unibright, CoinMetro

⚫️CoinBerry: $370K stolen on August 24 due to a software bug
⚫️Unibright: $400K stolen on September 11 due to private key compromise
⚫️CoinMetro: $750K stolen on October 6 due to a security breach

Laundering: Funds were consolidated into intermediary wallets and laundered through Tornado Cash.

🛡 Nexus Mutual Hack in December 2020

On December 14, founder Hugh Karp lost $8.3M to a phishing attack.

Laundering: Funds moved through ChipMixer and returned to Ethereum 🖱

➡️ 2021 Activities: ChipMixer, EasyFi Hack

In March 2021, funds from CoinMetro and Nexus Mutual were laundered through ChipMixer.

In April 2021, the EasyFi hack occurred:

$81M stolen from founder Ankitt Gaur’s device, infected with malware. Funds were transferred to Ethereum and deposited in ChipMixer, then moved to new addresses.

In October 2021, MGNR and PolyPlay hacks were executed:

⚫️MGNR: $24M stolen due to private key compromise.
⚫️PolyPlay: $1.6M stolen through unauthorized transfers.

Laundering: Funds deposited in Tornado Cash and moved through various intermediary addresses ❌

In November 2021, the bZx hack occurred:

$55M stolen after a developer's private keys were compromised. Laundering involved moving funds through Tornado Cash and various intermediary addresses.

➡️ 2022 Activities

In late January, $1.2M was stolen from the ANKR founder. In March, ArthurOx was hacked, losing around $1.7M.

In June 2022, $4.9M laundered from previous hacks was transferred to two Binance deposit addresses.

In September, GeraCoin was hacked, losing $142K.

In October, the Algorand hack resulted in $750K stolen, and Darshan lost $1.75M.

➡️ 2023 Activities

In August 2023, the Steadefi and CoinShift hacks occurred:

⚫️Steadefi: $1.2M stolen through a compromised deployer wallet.
⚫️CoinShift: Funds transferred from multisig wallets, likely due to private key compromise.

Funds were deposited in Tornado Cash, moved through intermediary addresses, and converted to fiat via P2P marketplaces.

By November 2023, 374K USDT was blacklisted, and centralized exchanges froze an undisclosed amount of funds.

Additionally, $3.4M was blacklisted by stablecoin issuers.

Recently, the Japanese exchange DMM Bitcoin was hacked, resulting in over $300M stolen. Lazarus Group remains the prime suspect...

🔐 The activities of the Lazarus Group highlight how sophisticated money laundering methods through mixers and P2P exchanges can be.

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🖥 Continuing our review of CoinMarketCap (CMC) report on the state of each sector

In the first post, we discussed the most interesting events of the first half of 2024.

In the second post, we touched upon the market sentiments.

Today, let's delve into the current state of each sector ▶️

Layer-1 Smart Contracts: The Rise of SOL, TON, and BNB

Layer 1 smart contracts are showing impressive results despite an overall decline. The market cap of this segment is $695.58 billion, which is 3.57% less than the previous quarter.

🔷 However, Ethereum has strengthened its position, reaching 62.11% dominance thanks to the SEC's approval of Ethereum Spot ETF.

BNB and Solana are also on the rise, adding $42 billion and $18 billion respectively for the year. Solana leads in the number of active users, attracting over 1.6 million daily addresses, followed by BNB with 1 million.

Meanwhile, SUI and TON have shown increased activity due to recent grants and popular projects.

⭐️ Network Activity and Revenue

Ethereum continues to lead in transaction revenue despite record low gas fees.

April and May saw the lowest fees since 2020, driven by the growing popularity of L2s and the Dencun upgrade.

⚪️ Ethereum generates 70% of the daily revenue among L1s, about $2.7 million daily.

🧬 Solana ranks second with $900k daily revenue.

In the DeFi sector, Ethereum holds the lead with 84.3% market share, mainly driven by DEX trading and staking.

Meanwhile, Solana attracts attention with meme coins, which generate a significant portion of transactions.

⭐️ Price Performance Leaders

Top platforms by price performance this year:

🥇 Toncoin (+221.5%)
🥈 BNB (+83.6%)
🥉 Ethereum (+45.33%).

Solana also shows growth, albeit more modest – 17.4% for the year 🧬

Layer-2: New Leaders Arbitrum and Base

Arbitrum and Base led in TVL growth in the first half of 2024, increasing TVL by $8.2 billion and $6.8 billion respectively. Base, launched in August 2023, has already become the third-largest L2 by TVL.

User activity is also growing: Linea saw a spike in activity in April due to the "Linea Voyage: The Surge" campaign, and in June, Base surpassed Arbitrum thanks to the launch of Coinbase's smart wallet.

1️⃣ Cross-Chain Bridges

The cross-chain bridge market shows healthy competition. Circle’s CCTP became the leader by volume, covering 15.6% of the market.

The top 5 bridges control 51.8% of the volume, indicating no platform dominance and healthy competition.

2️⃣ NFT

Ethereum is no longer the main chain for NFTs. Bitcoin, thanks to protocols like Ordinals and Runes, leads in trading volume.

Solana ranks first in user activity due to low fees and fast transaction speeds.

However, despite the initial surge in October last year, NFT trading volumes on Solana are gradually declining, reflecting a general downtrend in the NFT market.

3️⃣ Gaming: Pixels and Matr1xfire

Pixels increased its active users by 270% since the start of 2024. Despite the token launch and airdrop in February, the game continues to attract players and even increase their number.

The TON-based Notcoin reached 40 million users, eight times more than Pixels, demonstrating the huge potential of hyper-casual games.

4️⃣ Real-World Assets (RWA)

Fiat-collateralized stablecoins make up 96.6% of the real-world assets market. USDT continues to dominate, increasing its market cap by 22.4% in the first half of the year 💵

BlackRock’s BUIDL fund leads in assets under management, reaching half a billion dollars in less than three months.

5️⃣ Solana and Ethereum Meme Coins

Solana-based meme coins have outperformed Ethereum-based ones, showing results eight times higher.

Political memes, such as TRUMP and BODEN 👤 are also gaining popularity, increasing their market cap by 5100% this year.

In the next post, we will talk about listing...

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