🪙 Bitcoin “should” be worth $167K — energy doesn’t lie

Capriole Investments calculated that with the current record BTC hashrate, Bitcoin is trading at a 31% discount to its “fair” value.

💰 What the metrics say

🟡 Energy Value — $167,800 (current price $116K)
🟡 Hashrate — 1,031 ZH/s, new ATH on August 4
🟡 Discount deeper than in 2020, when BTC was $10K

📈 Why it matters

Miner energy = fundamental price floor. Rising hashrate and record network power signal network strength, even with a 10% drop from the peak.

Hash Ribbons flashed a fresh “buy” signal in late July. If BTC catches up to its Energy Value, we could see +45% upside.

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🪙 Strategy Marks 5 Years in BTC — +155 Coins Added

Michael Saylor keeps the tradition alive: on the fifth anniversary of the Bitcoin strategy, the company bought 155 BTC for $18M.

💰 Numbers & Facts

🟡 Total — 628,946 BTC ($46.1B), average price $73,288
🟡 First purchase: 21,454 BTC for $250M in August 2020
🟡 Since then — 74 purchases without a single pause

📈 Context

Since its first entry into BTC (+960% growth), Strategy hasn’t sold a single satoshi. Even at $120K, Saylor promises to keep buying “until 21M BTC in price in 21 years.”

Yes, 155 BTC is nearly the smallest buy in 5 years. But the “always buy” tradition is more alive than ever.

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🪙 Trump’s Adviser Plans $762M BTC “Smash Buy”

David Bailey, CEO of Nakamoto Inc. and crypto adviser to the U.S. President, announced plans to purchase ~6,400 BTC this week using a VWAP strategy to avoid moving the market.

🟡 Deal value — $762M, goal — enter the top BTC holders
🟡 Bailey is a key architect of Trump’s Bitcoin pivot and the author of a $200M PAC idea to lobby for BTC in the U.S.
🟡 Nakamoto’s new symbol is a bullish frog: “a treasure hunter and predator that eats everything growing BTC per share”

📈 Bitcoin corporate treasuries keep growing: 221 companies now hold 1.24M BTC.

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💰 $37T U.S. National Debt Pushes BTC Toward $132K

The U.S. federal debt has surpassed $37T for the first time — potentially fueling Bitcoin’s next surge. Rising M2 and possible quantitative easing (QE) could set the stage for a move to $132K by the end of 2025.

🟡 Debt grows faster than the economy: since 2020 — up 38% (from $26.7T to $37T). Over the same period, BTC gained 925%
🟡 Market sees a direct link. Ryan Lee (Bitget): “The higher the debt grows, the more likely BTC is to hit new all-time highs”
🟡 QE as a catalyst. Jamie Coutts (Real Vision): “The rise in M2 money supply could be the next major growth driver”
🟡 Rates above forecasts. Arthur Hayes: “If the Fed pivots back to QE, BTC could reach $250K”

Rising inflation and money supply are once again highlighting Bitcoin’s scarcity. One way or another, it seems time is on the hodlers’ side.

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🪙 Bitcoin Hits New All-Time High

BTC broke the $123,500 mark on Wednesday, surpassing the July record of $123,205. On Thursday morning in Singapore, it traded at $124,000, following the rise of the S&P 500, which also set a new record.

💰 Key growth factors:

🟡 Crypto-friendly political climate in Washington under Trump
🟡 Active BTC purchases by public companies, led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy
🟡 Expansion of this strategy to Ethereum and other assets
🟡 Capital inflows driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September

📊 Bitcoin’s market cap rose to $2.5tn, Ethereum’s to $575bn. Together, the two assets account for about 70% of the crypto market’s trading volume.

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📉 U.S. Treasury slows down Bitcoin — market cools

BTC failed to hold $120K, dropping to $118.7K after Scott Bessent said: “We will not buy Bitcoin, and will replenish reserves only with confiscated assets.”

Still, there’s one big positive — the U.S. has no plans to sell. The reserve is already worth $15–20B, and the White House calls it a “digital Fort Knox.”

🔥 On the horizon — a record $37T national debt and the good old QE, which could push Bitcoin to new highs.

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🪙 Solo Miner Hits the Jackpot Again

Over the weekend, a lone miner solved block #910,440 through the Solo CK pool and earned a reward of 3.137 BTC — about $371,000.

The block included 4,913 transactions, generating an additional $1,455 in fees.

💰 And this isn’t the first time this year: in February, July 4, and July 27, similar “solo players” also found blocks, each time taking home around ~$350K+.

💭 But the odds remain minimal. Samuel Lee, CTO of ASICKey, says:

“Solo mining is still a lottery. With one petahash, your chance is 1 in 650,000 to solve a block in 10 minutes.”

And while new hardware has become more powerful and energy-efficient, competition keeps growing: network difficulty stays around 129T, near its ATH.

Even major mining companies can’t handle the pressure — some are shifting into AI and HPC to offset declining margins.

But for solo players, this remains a crypto lottery where sometimes luck really strikes.

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🪙 Bitcoin and the Fed Chair: The Game Is Just Beginning

BTC is once again under macroeconomic pressure. Economist Alex Krüger believes the market is underestimating the main trigger — the change of the Federal Reserve Chair.

📉 While everyone is waiting for a September rate cut, Krüger writes:

“I am highly confident the cycle isn’t over, because a leadership change at the Fed will bring a much looser monetary policy. This will start to be priced in once Trump announces his candidate to replace Powell.”

📊 Right now, the market almost unanimously expects a rate cut on September 17 — with an 83.9% probability according to CME FedWatch. But Krüger hints: the real bull run will only kick off after news of Powell’s successor.

📰 According to CNBC, the shortlist for the Fed chair includes:
— David Zervos (Jefferies)
— Rick Rieder (BlackRock)
— Larry Lindsey (former Fed governor)

Other sources say the list has already narrowed to 3–4 names, and an announcement could come sooner.

🔥 Trump has made no secret of his hostility toward Powell. Back in April, he wrote:

“Powell’s firing can’t come soon enough!”

Now, all eyes are on the White House: the next Fed Chair could become the key catalyst driving BTC to new highs.

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📲 DegenPhone: Mint Starts Today

The previous pool sold out in 8 minutes and raised 160,000 TON (~$530K). That was just a teaser. Today the main show begins.

⏰ Schedule

15:00 CET — mint for pool participants
17:00 CET — NFT number auction

📈 Secondary market trades are already above the starting price, and tomorrow the public sale opens. This means only one thing — FOMO is officially on.

💎 Exclusive and “premium” numbers will go first. After that, it’ll be déjà vu of Fragment, where early birds made x40 out of nowhere.

Don’t miss the train — it won’t wait for you.

👉 Jump in at the start

🪙 BTC crashed to $112K: is this the bottom or just the beginning?

The market is in panic: SEC investigations, AI disappointments, and new U.S. tariffs.

😱 Options are signaling extreme fear: “The 30-day skew spiked to 12% — above 10% is rare and a marker of panic.”

But history hints at the opposite:

“The last time this happened was in April, when BTC dropped below $74,500. Everyone expected a collapse, but a month later it was up +40%.”

💡 Takeaway: Fear is off the charts — and that’s exactly how new pumps are usually born.

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🤑 DegenPhone Launches Auction: 2,000 NFT Numbers for Sale

After the record-breaking launchpool, which sold out in 8 minutes and raised 160k TON, the project is back on the market. Today marks the start of the public auction of NFT numbers — and this could become the next big hype in TON.

📉 What to Know Right Now

— Total supply: 10,000 numbers, with 1,100 already sold during the pool.
— Today at 19:00 CET — 2,000 new NFTs go on sale.
— Price is dynamic: each new mint adds +0.035 TON. All coded in the smart contract — pure math and FOMO.
— After the last (2,000th) number is sold, a 7-day vesting period begins.

🔥 Why This Could Take Off

NFT numbers aren’t just pictures — they’re fully functional eSIMs with real use cases:
— Receive SMS for verification on exchanges, services, and social networks.
— Anonymous use and AI-agent integration via API.
— Voice calls on Telegram planned for Q3 2025.

Backed by the Nicegram team (3.5M MAU) and eSimPlus, supported by TON Foundation, and with secondary prices already trending up.

👀 Bonus for Holders

The team is teasing an upcoming airdrop of utility tokens linked to calls, SMS, and AI functions. Details will follow, but the insight is clear: early adopters will benefit more.

⚡️The launchpool was just the trailer. The real movie begins today. Exclusive and “beautiful” numbers will be taken first — the rest could look like the Fragment story, where early birds made x40.

👉 Don’t miss the start

✉️ Gift News reports that Telegram has become a paid service in some countries

The cost of use will be $1. This may negatively affect the popularization of Telegram gifts.

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🟠 Saylor Back in Action: Strategy Buys BTC “Every Second”

The biggest corporate holder of Bitcoin — Michael Saylor’s company Strategy — keeps stacking sats, but insiders insist: “We don’t move the price.”

📉 How They Do It

Shirish Jajodia, Strategy’s corporate treasurer, said:

“We buy Bitcoin 24/7. Almost every day, every hour, every second. But we do it in a way that doesn’t move the price.”

According to him, the company structures purchases proportionally to market liquidity and heavily uses OTC channels. That’s why the market doesn’t always pump after huge buys.

📊 Facts & Examples

— Nov 2024: Strategy bought 55,000 BTC for $5.4B → 3 weeks later, BTC broke ATH at $106K.
— July 2025: 21,021 BTC for $2.46B → 4 days later, price dropped -4%.

So, Saylor’s buys aren’t a guaranteed pump, but every chart tweet from him still makes the market nervous.

🔥 The Core Strategy

Strategy already holds 629,376 BTC (~$70.8B) and isn’t slowing down. Jajodia admitted:

“If the price falls, we can speed up. But we’re always buying anyway.”

Saylor said last year he’d buy at any level — even at peaks. For him, it’s not about the price, it’s about the size of the stack.

👉 Conclusion: Even if $MSTR doesn’t move the price directly, their “buy & hold” approach has become the symbol of corporate Bitcoin maximalism.

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🟠 Bitcoin and the Bear Market: Who’s Right — Trump’s Advisor or Analysts?

💭Trump’s crypto advisor David Bailey is confident:

“Every bank, insurance company, corporation, and pension fund will own Bitcoin. We haven’t even captured 0.01% of the market. There won’t be a bear cycle in the coming years.”

He’s betting on institutions — funds, companies, and governments that have already poured more than $100B into BTC. But analysts are less optimistic.

📉 What the market says

🟡 CK Zheng (ZX Squared): “Crypto is still tightly tied to the stock market. If equities enter a bear market — crypto will follow.”
🟡 Pav Hundal (Swyftx): “The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is up, but macro shocks come unexpectedly. I expect volatility to decline with each cycle.”
🟡 Ryan McMillin (Merkle Tree Capital): baseline scenario — peak in Q2 2026 and a soft bear market by mid-2026.

💭 But there’s another view:

“There may be no bear market at all — like gold after the launch of ETFs in the 2000s, when the asset went up for 8 straight years,” added McMillin.

The question remains open: either BTC faces the classic “four-year cycle,” or we’re entering a new mode where corrections exist but a true bear market never comes again.

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🪙 Altcoins — Beta Test for Bitcoin? Draper is Confident

Tim Draper is back at it again: altcoins make Bitcoin stronger.

“All these small cryptocurrencies are experimenting, and the best engineers later bring the findings into Bitcoin. This creates gravity around BTC,” he told CNBC.

📊 What he meant

🟡 BTC’s dominance in the crypto market is growing: 40% in the last bull run, 50% in the next, now already 61–62%.
🟡 The model is the same as Microsoft in the Web2 era: the ecosystem builds around the dominant platform.
🟡 Altcoins flare up and vanish, while Bitcoin keeps getting stronger.

💡 Draper also reminded:

“The only hedge against uncontrolled government spending is Bitcoin. Holding gold is like holding shells. That’s prehistoric thinking.”

🔥 And his $250,000 BTC prediction is still on the table:

“I’ve been saying $250K for a long time. I haven’t been right yet, but we’re halfway there. And that’s already very exciting.”

BTC recently hit $124,450 but pulled back 11.8% to $109,144. And now the big question: do altcoins really help Bitcoin, or are they still just a test sandbox for ideas?

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🟠 $160K by Christmas? Bitcoin sets up a “medium” comeback

BTC is dipping again, but economist Timothy Peterson’s research suggests there’s nothing to worry about — more upside is ahead.

📉 September is traditionally a weak month for Bitcoin. In its entire history, it has never closed above +8%. But this could just be a “frontrun” — the market pricing in the drop early.

💭 Peterson writes:

“Exactly 4 months until Christmas. In 70% of cases, Bitcoin rises during this period. The average gain is +44%.”

That puts a target at $160K by the last week of the year.

💭 Trader Donnie isn’t worried about the current dip either:

“The scale is different — but the result is the same. Much higher.”

He compared BTC’s chart to gold and the 2017 cycle — both hint at continued growth.

Yes, the “$250K” scenario sounds bold. But even the “medium” case of $160K by the end of 2025 would mark a new all-time high.

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🤑 TON on Robinhood: listing confirmed

U.S. platform Robinhood has added $TON to its list of tradable assets. Now the token can be purchased directly on one of the most popular American fintech platforms (Robinhood Markets, Inc.).

📈 On the news, TON jumped +3.5% to $3.29, but quickly began to pull back.

Listing on Robinhood is a step toward the mainstream: the token now has access to the massive audience of American retail investors.

The only question is whether this impulse will be enough to sustain the hype, or if we’ll see the classic “sell the news.”

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