🪙 Fed pause could push BTC to $106K

Bitcoin is gaining macro support: the Fed has frozen rates, and Binance derivatives markets are unwinding leverage. This sets the stage for a short squeeze.

🟡 $104K is a strong demand zone — price held above it

🟡 Open Interest on Binance is dropping despite price climbing

🟡 Historically, Fed pauses → BTC rallies

🟡 Liquidity above $106K is growing rapidly

CryptoQuant: “The combo of stable rates and falling OI is a bullish signal”

CoinGlass: “Short liquidation risk is rising above $106K”

Watch $106K closely — if it breaks, we could quickly see $110K+.

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🪙 Arizona wants to stack Bitcoin using confiscated funds

The Arizona Senate has revived the previously failed Bitcoin reserve bill — HB 2324 is back on the table.

🟡 Establish a Bitcoin and digital assets fund

🟡 Allocate part of confiscated crypto to this fund

🟡 The first $300k goes to the prosecutor’s office, everything above is split evenly between the reserve, the state, and the attorney general

🟡 The bill expands crypto confiscation powers — even over deported or deceased individuals

🗣 Governor Hobbs said:

“Cryptocurrencies are still too volatile for retirement savings.”
Still, she already signed one Bitcoin-related bill — HB 2749 — which allows the state to accumulate crypto without using taxpayer funds and earn income through staking.

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🪙 While the Middle East burns, Bitcoin stays calmer than the Nasdaq

Amid the strikes on Iran and rising geopolitical tensions, BTC has turned out to be… less volatile than the stock market.

📌 Facts that break the mold:

🟡 Bitcoin’s 60-day volatility is around 27%, lower than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq

🟡 Even the “Magnificent Seven” stocks swing harder — up to 40%

🟡 During the Russia–Ukraine war, BTC volatility was over 60%, now it’s calm

💬 From a Glassnode report:

“BTC is becoming a mature asset class.” Already 14.53M coins are held by long-term holders, and circulating supply is shrinking.

Institutions are moving in. ETFs, exchanges, corporations, and funds now hold over 30% of total supply. Analysts predict $150K by the end of 2025.

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🪙 Bullish breakout: Bitcoin breaks $108K and eyes new ATH

Bitcoin delivered a textbook move — sweeping short liquidity at $108K and accelerating upward. Now, all eyes are on a potential push toward all-time highs.

📈 What’s happening:

🟡 BTC surged nearly $10K in 3 days, reaching $108,182

🟡 Liquidity at $108K has been taken — next target: $111K+

🟡 Ichimoku Cloud shows a clean Kumo breakout

🟡 Titan of Crypto: “If we clear the Fair Value Gap, $111K is next”

💬 “Bulls are in control,” summed up analyst Matthew Hyland.

🌍 With calm returning to the Middle East, markets are now watching NATO and rising tensions with Russia. QCP Capital warns: geopolitics is back in play, and the market is undergoing a stress test.

Bitcoin leads once again — powered not just by technicals, but by mounting geopolitical pressure.

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🪙 Bitcoin Hits Highs, but Old Miners Stay Silent: Why Satoshi-Era Holders Aren’t Selling BTC

BTC is at all-time highs, yet the oldest miners seem to have forgotten where the “sell” button is.

📉 Unusual Market Behavior:

🟡Throughout 2025: Satoshi-era miners sold only 150 BTC

🟡For comparison: In 2024, they dumped nearly 10,000 BTC

🟡Mining pools with 100–1,000 BTC added 4,000 coins to reserves

🟡Total reserves hit 65,000 BTC — the highest since November

💬 CryptoQuant: “Miners are currently extremely underpaid but still holding.”

📉 Revenue dropped to $34M per day — a two-month low. Hashrate down 3.5% in 10 days. Yet, almost no sales.

In every past bull run, old wallets unloaded at highs. But in 2025, even the OGs have decided: selling is no longer the trend.

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🪙 Bitcoin loans are back — but this time, with scars

Celsius and BlockFi burned the book, but new players are quietly rewriting it — with more caution, less hype, and scars that still sting.

❌ No more black boxes?

🟡 Lenders now avoid the “rehypothecation roulette” that tanked billions — promising overcollateralization, public reserves, and lower LTVs

🟡 Retail is mostly gone — loans are now used for liquidity, tax deferral, or balance sheet play by corporates and long-term holders

🟡 Platforms like Strike say never again to reusing your BTC, while others offer full disclosure or third-party custody

💬 “Rehypothecation still worries users — some are doing it better, but it’s the same 2021 story if transparency is missing,” says Accountable CEO Wojtek Pawlowski

🔒 Safer ≠ bulletproof

🟡 BTC still swings 5%+ in a day — even conservative 40-50% LTV can collapse if markets dive

🟡 Collateral pools are mostly single-asset and can still vanish overnight

🟡 Modern lenders promise no yield-farming with user BTC — but one hidden repackaging, and the dominoes fall again

🤔 Who’s borrowing now?

🟡 Total CeFi Bitcoin loan book rebounded to $13.5B in Q1 2025 (up 9% QoQ)

🟡 Institutions and long-term HODLers are borrowing against BTC to access liquidity without triggering capital gains

🟡 But even they remain wary — because smart contracts don’t protect you from a 20% crash

💬 “Lower leverage, public reserves, even banking licenses — all improvements. But don’t pretend this thing’s bulletproof,” warns Savea CEO Sam Mudie

Bitcoin lending isn’t dead. But it's no longer the casino it used to be. And maybe that’s a good thing.

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🟠 Smarter Web tops up its balance: another $24.7M in BTC

London-based Smarter Web has made another Bitcoin purchase — this time for $24.7M. And it’s just the beginning.

💰 773 BTC on the books

🟡 Bought another 230 BTC at $107K each

🟡 Total investment: $82.6M

🟡 $52M in cash left — all reserved for Bitcoin

📈 10-year strategy

🟡 The company has committed to long-term BTC accumulation

🟡 “Bitcoin is the core of the future financial system” — from their report

🟡 Accepting BTC payments since 2023

💭 “We view Bitcoin as an asset that will strengthen the company’s long-term value” — public statement

🇬🇧 UK joins the frenzy

🟡 At least 9 firms announced BTC buys in just one week

🟡 Tao Alpha plans a $137M BTC strategy

🟡 Even Panther Metals bought its first Bitcoin

Corporate FOMO is sweeping through the UK. While some still trust gold — others are betting on digital.

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🪙 $140,000 — the level OG holders are waiting for

Even at 2025 highs, Bitcoin hasn’t given old-time holders the kind of profits they saw in 2024. That means the upside might still be ahead.

🤔 What CryptoQuant says:

🟡 LTHs (holding BTC for 6+ months) are still not “deep in profit”

🟡 Average MVRV profit is at 220%

🟡 It was 350% in December 2024

🟡 To match that, BTC needs to reach $140,000

💲 The key number:

🟡 $33,800 — average entry price for LTHs

🟡 $140K — the level where profit matches 2024 peaks

🟡 This could act as a “magnet” for the market

📊 What the charts show:

🟡 BTC is breaking the downtrend from May

🟡 “Now comes the retest phase after breakout” — Rekt Capital

🟡 The bull run could end in just a few months

If the bull trend hasn’t yet delivered peak profits — it’s not the top. It’s a hint.

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🪙 Why can’t Bitcoin break past $112K?

BTC is approaching its peak but just can’t push through. Why? A lack of new buyers and too much emotion.

📉 No real demand

🟡 Spot volume delta is negative — more selling than buying

🟡 The market is driven by derivatives, not real money

💭 “Breakouts run on fumes,” says Swissblock

🤫 Seasonal quiet

🟡 Historically low volumes from June to October

🟡 July accounts for just 6.1% of annual traffic

🟡 Even major news (Trump, tariffs, crypto laws) isn’t moving the market

💰 Greed phase

🟡 Fear & Greed Index at 73 — extreme FOMO

🟡 RSI is nearing overbought levels across the board

💭 Santiment: “Don’t be surprised by a brief rally halt”

To go higher, the market needs real money — not just noise. While the crowd gets greedy, the market cools off.

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🪙 Third bounce from $110K: are the bulls losing steam?

Bitcoin has failed to break above $110K once again — marking the third rejection in just a couple of months. Strong U.S. labor market data cooled investor sentiment, making it less likely that rate cuts will happen before fall.

🔁 History is repeating

🟡 Rejections near highs often lead to drops: -14% in January, -18% in spring
🟡 The same setup now: price is rising while RSI is falling — classic bearish divergence
🟡 The $110K level has become a wall: heavy sell-offs, neutral funding, traders running out of steam

📉 How low can we go?

🟡 $108K–$107.5K is a key support zone — if it breaks, a drop to $105K is likely
🟡 Other support levels: $106K, $105.2K, and the psychological level at $104K
🟡 Buy orders are stacked around $108K and below

🙏 And what if we break through?

🟡 Above $110K lies a $121M liquidation cluster
🟡 A breakout could trigger a short squeeze — pushing price to $114K
🟡 $112K remains strong resistance before price enters uncharted territory

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🟠 Strategy didn’t buy Bitcoin for the first time in 3 months — but now they want to raise $4.2B

Michael Saylor hit pause, but not for long. The company reported $14B in unrealized BTC profits in Q2 and immediately launched a new $4.2B ATM offering for more buys.

🤔 What’s going on?

🟡 For the first time since April, Strategy didn’t purchase any Bitcoin last week — the price had dropped to $105,400
🟡 Their current holdings: 597,325 BTC, average cost ≈ $107K
🟡 Tax liability on profits stands at $6.31B

🤷‍♂️ What is Saylor planning?

🟡 A new $4.2B ATM under the ticker STRD — they’ll sell shares to buy more BTC
🟡 Total capacity of all Strategy ATM programs: $44.8bn
🟡 Already used: $477M from STRK, $163M from STRF

🗣 “We don’t just hold BTC. We fully capitalize on it.” — that pretty much sums up Strategy’s playbook.

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