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— Keeping a close eye on crypto news so you don't miss the next 2009

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🐻 Did Bitcoin Fall Into a Bear Trap or Not?

In light of the recent drop in $BTC's price, many analysts have spotted signs of a so-called "bear trap" on the charts.

🐻 What Is a Bear Trap?

It is a situation where there is a temporary price decline that leads traders to believe a much larger drop is imminent. In such cases, the market may rebound sharply, trapping those who have shorted.

🪙 The Main Cause of the Price Drop:

Donald Trump’s trade wars, with the imposition of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, led to Bitcoin falling from $100K to below $93K. Major altcoins also lost tens of percent of their value.

The market is now beginning to recover due to a temporary pause in tariff implementations during negotiations with these countries.


🪙 Polymarket Predictions:

Interestingly, 74% of Polymarket users expect Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high by March 31.

*Polymarket is a prediction market, so the optimism might be somewhat exaggerated.


🐻 Is Bitcoin Trapped or Not?

Bitcoin's rise or fall will increasingly depend on developments in the political arena.

Support for its price might come from a recently signed executive order related to the creation of a sovereign wealth fund. Cynthia Lummis has even hinted that this order could signal the start of state-backed BTC purchases.

Bitcoin may respond with another drop if the trade war escalates further. However, Bitwise strategist Jeff Park holds a different view:

"Trump's trade war could, on the contrary, lead to a sharp long-term increase in Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency would be chosen as a means to safeguard savings against inflation caused by trade wars".


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📊 Truth or ignorance: the choice is yours

Remember that scene from The Matrix where Neo is offered a choice—stay in his familiar world or uncover the truth?

Trading is no different: you can seek new knowledge, analyze the market, and understand processes—or just sit back and watch.

Knowledge creates opportunities. That’s why today, alongside trader Bobrovsky, we’re diving deeper into "Dumps in Crypto Trading" to separate risks from opportunities.


📉 What is a dump?

A market dump happens when the price of a cryptocurrency drops sharply. The reasons vary:

⚪️ Whale profit-taking – Large players sell off, triggering a chain reaction
⚪️ Leverage liquidations – Falling prices wipe out traders' positions
⚪️ Negative news – Bans, hacks, lawsuits—anything that shakes the market
⚪️ Market maker manipulation – Artificial price movements to buy cheaper
⚪️ Low liquidity – Even small orders can impact the price

But the real question is: what should you do in these moments?

Bobrovsky’s advice: use dumps wisely:

Buying at the bottom – Waiting for key support levels
Hedging risks – Stop-losses and capital protection
Market analysis – Tracking liquidations, volumes, and news

The choice of strategy and tools depends on the situation. Bobrovsky recommends deep analysis and avoiding emotional decisions.


On his Telegram channel, he monitors market movements and predicts further trends. His insights are backed by a mathematical background and experience as a senior analyst at a major market maker.

Conclusion: A dump is a risk for some, but an entry point for others.

The key is to control emotions, stick to risk management, and choose knowledge—because knowledge opens new perspectives.

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✍️ "Bitcoin Will Drop to $70-75K": Arthur Hayes' New Essay

In his latest essay, BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes explores the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (BSR). Each subheading corresponds to a section of his essay:

🧞 "The Orange Genie"

Hayes paints a scenario where people wish for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The desire is strong, but the consequences are unpredictable.

🪙 "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve"

Governments accumulate assets for political gain rather than financial benefits.

Bitcoin itself is just a financial asset. Even if the U.S. buys 1 million BTC, the price surge would eventually stabilize.

A future administration could easily reverse such policies, making the reserve strategy uncertain.

🧟 "Frankenstein’s Crypto Account"

Granting the wish for a Bitcoin reserve would lead to centralization and strict crypto regulations.

Crypto startups chasing the "American Dream" would be swallowed by monopolies hoarding digital assets.

🧞 "Make a Wish": The Evolution of U.S. Reserves

Hayes traces the evolution of U.S. reserves, showing how attitudes toward assets changed over time:

⚪️ 1944-1971: Gold
⚪️ 1971-1994: Oil
⚪️ 1994-2025: Global currency reserves & aggressive exports
⚪️ 2025 - ???: Bitcoin/Gold

But what would it really take for Bitcoin to become an American asset?

🪙 3 Steps to Establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (BSR)

1️⃣ Creating a digital dollar: The U.S. Treasury must recognize USDT (Tether) and USDe (Ethena) as official digital dollars.

2️⃣ Tokenizing century-old bonds: Issuing TSY100, a token pegged to U.S. Treasury bonds.

3️⃣ A regulated Web3 exchange: Launching EagleSwap, a decentralized exchange for USDT, USDe, TSY100, and Bitcoin.

All of this would be integrated with social networks like Facebook and X.

If the U.S. enacts the necessary laws, it could dominate the issuance of a new neutral reserve asset.


Conclusion:

Hayes argues that if this "wish comes true," Bitcoin’s price could drop to $70-75K, ushering in a new financial era without central banks—centered around decentralized technologies.

This would create a new financial architecture where traditional banks become obsolete, and blockchain forms the foundation of the global economy.


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📰 Key Cryptocurrency News

The race to establish a crypto reserve, Trump's tariff policies, and other major events from last week:

🟠 Trump Signs Order Imposing Tariffs

Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on imports from China.

🔻 The cryptocurrency market reacted with a sharp drop, and Bitcoin fell by 8%, reaching $92,798.34.


On Tuesday, Trump announced a delay in implementing tariffs for Mexico and Canada. Following this, Bitcoin rebounded to $102,500, and Ethereum climbed to $2,920.

🟠 China Responds

The State Council of China approved new tariffs on U.S. imports starting February 10, 2025:

15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas.

10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-engine vehicles, and pickup trucks.


🟠 Trump Signs Executive Order to Establish a Sovereign Investment Fund

Bessent, who attended the signing at the White House, stated that the fund could be established within 12 months. Bitcoin was not explicitly mentioned in the order.

🟠 Utah Approves Bill for BTC Investments

The document has been forwarded to the Senate for review.

🟠 U.S. SEC Downsizing Crypto Regulation Unit

The unit previously had over 50 attorneys and staff members.

This move is a significant step by the Trump administration in reshaping digital asset regulation.

🟠 Kit-Chong: Hong Kong Needs to Accelerate Bitcoin Adoption as a Strategic Reserve

A member of Hong Kong's Legislative Council proposed allowing stablecoin companies to operate within a "regulatory sandbox" to speed up the issuance and adoption of stablecoins for international trade.

He also called for the creation of a Digital Asset Office to oversee the development of AI and virtual assets.


🟠 Tornado Cash Developers Temporarily Released

Alexey Pertsev, a Tornado Cash developer, announced on X (Twitter) that a Dutch court approved the temporary suspension of his pretrial detention, requiring him to wear an electronic monitoring bracelet.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin later reposted the news, expressing his support.


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🪙 Worth Its Weight in Gold...

Gold has hit a new all-time high, outperforming Bitcoin since the beginning of the year as central banks continue aggressive purchases.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gained around 5% year-to-date, but its growth has been accompanied by high volatility.

Let’s break down the macroeconomic factors influencing BTC and gold price movements.

❤️ Gold Strengthens Its Position

Gold reached a record high of $2,902 per ounce on Monday, marking a 17.5% increase since the start of the year.

Key drivers behind the rally:

⚪️ Central banks are actively accumulating gold
⚪️ Concerns over global trade policies
⚪️ Increased demand for safe-haven assets

According to a World Gold Council report, global gold reserves increased by 694 tons in the first 10 months of 2024, continuing the record accumulation trend.


Top gold buyers in 2024:

🇵🇱 Poland – 89.5 tons
🇮🇳 India – 72.6 tons
🇹🇷 Turkey – 74.8 tons
🇨🇳 China – 44.2 tons

Additional insights: 69% of central banks plan to continue purchasing gold.

83% of central banks in developed countries see gold as a hedge against inflation and financial instability.

🪙 Bitcoin vs. Gold: Safe-Haven Asset Comparison

Gold continues to serve as a traditional safe-haven asset during inflationary and trade disruptions.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is considered a high-risk asset in most countries, making it more vulnerable to market sentiment shifts.

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💸 Buying a Landfill to Find $BTC

The tragic story of a hard drive discarded in 2013 has taken unexpected turns.

Here’s the case of James Howells, an IT engineer from the UK, who is still on a quest to recover his lost fortune.

🪙 Mining 8,000 BTC

James started mining Bitcoin in 2009, back when very few people knew about it.

In 2013, his girlfriend accidentally threw away his hard drive—which already held around 8,000 BTC at the time, valued at just $13 per coin.

🪙 12 Years of Failed Legal Battles

James has been fighting for access to the landfill to search for his lost hard drive, but authorities have denied his requests time and time again.

The most recent court ruling in 2024 rejected his claim. However, James insists that the court had no valid grounds for its decision.


🪙 The Search Continues

James isn’t the only one looking for the BTC hard drive. Security guards have been stationed near the landfill multiple times due to the growing number of Bitcoin treasure hunters trying to find the "21st-century fortune."

🪙 Buying the Landfill

Authorities recently announced plans to shut down the landfill to build a solar power plant on the site. The closure is scheduled for 2025–2026.

James is now considering buying the entire landfill along with investment partners.

If the deal falls through, he is even open to launching a utility token or NFT, believing that "the crypto community will support him."


🪙 Final Thought: Today, the lost BTC hard drive is valued at $768 million.

Howells predicts that by 2026, its value could surpass $1 billion.


He is prepared not only to buy the landfill but also to take his case to the UK Supreme Court.


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☝️ 555% APR + 5 USDT Airdrop from ByBit – Bonus for New Users

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☝️ What is ByBit?

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ByBit Benefits:

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☝️ How to Participate?

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3️⃣ After 3 days, withdraw your staked amount + earned interest + 5 USDT bonus!

The rules are simple, but there are important details you need to check.

☝️ Promotion Duration

📆 The promotion will last from January 15, 10:00 UTC to March 31, 23:59 UTC.

Hurry up! Limited plans are available on a first-come, first-served basis.


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🪙 Bitcoin Loses the Top Spot

Price declines have led to a $1.3 billion inflow into digital assets.

However, there are notable shifts in rankings compared to last week, particularly concerning BTC:

📊 Key Facts:

This week’s leader: Ethereum. ETH's price dropped to $2,100, triggering record dip buying—$793 million in inflows over the week.

This is the first time in 2024 that ETH inflows have surpassed BTC.

What about Bitcoin? BTC saw $407 million in inflows, while ETPs now hold 7.1% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.

Other significant inflows: XRP: +$21 million and Solana: +$11 million


📊 Regional Focus:

🇺🇸 USA: + $1 billion — the absolute leader in inflows.
🇩🇪 Germany: + $61 million
🇨🇭 Switzerland: + $54 million
🇨🇦 Canada: + $37 million

📊 Market in Numbers:

Assets under Management (AuM): $163 billion (down from the record $181 billion in January).

ETP trading volume: $20 billion over the past week.

📊 Conclusions:

Investors continue increasing their positions despite market volatility.

The recent price dip triggered strong buying, particularly in ETH.

Bitcoin remains the dominant asset, but for the first time this year, Ethereum has taken the lead in inflows.


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🍿 New Documentary About Satoshi

The identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in the world of technology and finance.

And once again, a new documentary is hitting the screens, promising to reveal the truth behind Satoshi.

🤝 Silicon Valley Conspiracy

British broadcaster Channel 4 (yes, the same ones behind the "British scientists" jokes) has announced a documentary investigation, claiming that Bitcoin’s history may be part of a global conspiracy.

The project’s producer calls it a "surreal investigation", where a group of influential Silicon Valley figures allegedly used Bitcoin to undermine democracy.

The documentary promises a gonzo-style journalistic journey, attempting to determine who Nakamoto really is and what forces are behind Bitcoin.


📱 Backstory: HBO’s Failure

HBO recently released a documentary called "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery", which claimed that BTC Core developer Peter Todd was actually Satoshi.

However, the so-called "revelation" quickly turned into a major embarrassment:

Todd denied the allegations and sued them.
Venture investor Adam Cochran called the investigation "absolute garbage."
The Bitcoin community dismissed the film as incompetent and purely speculative.

So, the new Channel 4 documentary is already sparking both excitement and skepticism.


📅 When Is the Premiere?

⚪️ YouTube release: February 17
⚪️ Five 20-minute episodes
⚪️ Full-length version airs on TV in March

💸 What to Expect from This Investigation?

The crypto community is traditionally skeptical of such documentaries, often accusing them of bias and sensationalism.

But this time, the filmmakers have gone beyond just searching for Satoshi—they promise to expose the hidden political games surrounding Bitcoin.


React: What do you expect from this film?

🔥 — Looks interesting, I’ll watch

💯 — Satoshi is Satoshi, no need to search

😁 — It’ll be even worse than HBO’s

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📰 Bitcoin & Crypto News Recap

Key events from last week in the world of cryptocurrency and global economy:

🟠 Trump announces new round of tariffs

Donald Trump has introduced a new round of reciprocal tariffs to counter high import duties imposed by other countries on U.S. goods.

This move could significantly impact emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Vietnam, where tariffs on U.S. imports are much higher than U.S. tariffs on goods from these countries.


🟠 20 U.S. states push Bitcoin reserve bills

These initiatives could bring $23 billion into the Bitcoin market. If passed, they would open new investment opportunities and state-level Bitcoin adoption.

🟠 Biggest altcoin crash in history

The altcoin market experienced its largest drop ever, losing $234 billion over the past two weeks.

This highlights the growing divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, as BTC continues to dominate the market.


🟠 MicroStrategy adds 7,633 BTC for $742.4M

The company now holds 478,740 BTC, with a total acquisition cost of $31.1 billion at an average price of $65,033 per BTC.

🟠 Binance & SEC request 60-day pause in lawsuit

Binance and the SEC have filed a joint motion to suspend legal proceedings for 60 days. The request is linked to the potential impact of the SEC’s new crypto task force.

🟠 Wall Street banks ramp up crypto interest

Top banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, are preparing for an upcoming crypto IPO boom.

Crypto firms like Gemini and Kraken are expected to go public as early as 2025, driving renewed investor interest in digital assets.


🟠 The Fed is in no rush to cut rates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that, despite pressure from Trump to lower rates, the Fed is not rushing into rate cuts as the economy remains strong and inflation is gradually decreasing.

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💸 Bitcoin: The Dominant Force in Crypto

With a market capitalization of $2 trillion, BTC has firmly secured its position.

Currently, it ranks 7th among global assets, surpassing giants like Meta and Saudi Aramco.

Let’s break down why Bitcoin is a key player in the financial market.

Market Cap Growth

Bitcoin has attracted over $850 billion in net capital inflows.

It has become a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation, especially with growing institutional interest.

Over the past year, more than $40 billion has been invested in Bitcoin through ETFs.


Value Accumulation & Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Since FTX's collapse in November 2022, Bitcoin dominance has surged from 38% to 59%.

Compared to other crypto assets, Bitcoin continues to accumulate value, and capital rotates into BTC.

This trend is partly driven by institutional capital gaining broader access to Bitcoin spot ETFs.


New Horizons for Trading

Bitcoin processes over $8.7 billion in transactions daily, reaffirming its role as a medium of exchange.

And yes, Bitcoin is taking on an increasingly significant role globally:

⚪️ Bhutan is conducting large-scale mining operations.

⚪️ El Salvador continues to promote Bitcoin as legal tender.

⚪️ The U.S. government is exploring Bitcoin’s potential as a strategic reserve asset.

Its decentralized nature makes it an ideal solution for international transactions.


Making the Impossible, Possible

Bitcoin has surpassed $100K, a milestone once deemed impossible.

Other crypto assets move in correlation with BTC, reinforcing its macro asset status.


💸 Why Is Bitcoin the Dominant Asset?

Bitcoin is not just a store of value but also a strategic asset for institutional investors.

With deep liquidity and increasing stability, BTC continues to strengthen its dominance and influence in the financial market 🔥


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🪙 Bitcoin Activity Drops to Its Lowest in a Year

The peak transaction volume in BTC history was 730,000 transactions.

Now, the daily average has dropped to 330,000, marking a 55% decline.

🪙 Why Does It Matter?

A decline in transaction volume can impact the stability of fee revenues.

Gradually, BTC network fees are increasing. They have now reached $500K, but this is still lower than at the end of 2024.

The Runes protocol has seen a significant drop. While at its peak, fee generation reached $60M, it has now fallen to just $20K.

With protocol activity decreasing and fees stabilizing, the network seems to be returning to its primary function—monetary transfers.


🪙 Capital Flowing Into Memecoins & AI Token Networks

Traders have shifted to Solana for memecoin trading.

Meanwhile, Base has become the primary hub for AI-related tokens.

Despite Bitcoin’s dominance in market capitalization, other networks are capturing niche markets and on-chain trading volumes.

🪙 Will the Trend Continue?

The crypto market is volatile and rapidly changing.

This trend is likely temporary, but new Bitcoin-based protocols could strengthen its long-term ecosystem—especially with the upcoming block reward reduction.


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🐻 Bitcoin Won’t Enter a Bear Market in 2025

This is the view of CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.

According to him, even a drop in BTC to $77,000 would not break the bullish trend in 2025, and here’s why:

🪙 What Does Ki Young Ju Think?

Ju highlighted several key cost-basis levels, including $89,000—the price at which investors in U.S. Bitcoin ETFs purchased BTC.

This level has acted as support since November. On X (Twitter), Ki Young Ju wrote:

"We are still in a bull cycle. The price will eventually rise, but volatility will remain high.

I believe the uptrend will continue, even if we see a 30% drop from ATH (e.g., from 110K to 77K), just as in previous cycles."


🐂 Another CryptoQuant Analyst’s View

CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen also believes that the bull cycle is not over:

"Despite the ongoing halving cycle, I expect a correction in May, sideways movement in summer, and price increases towards the end of the year.

A positive Q4 trend has repeated in 2013, 2016, 2017, 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024," Oinonen concluded.


He explained that after the most recent halving (April 2024), Bitcoin has only grown 60%—which is still below previous cycle averages.

Key Takeaways:

The crypto market is often analyzed based on historical data and recurring patterns.

However, its movements remain highly unpredictable, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and major market players.

That’s why tracking market changes daily and adapting strategies in real time is crucial. A great way to do this is by following trader Bobrovsky, who provides deep market analysis and valuable insights.

And yes, even with CryptoQuant's bullish outlook, assuming BTC will rise all year without corrections might be overly optimistic.


What do you think—will BTC truly stay bullish? React below:

💯 – 100% uptrend only

🔥 – Everything is cyclical, even BTC can’t avoid a bear phase

👍 – Crypto traders are ready for anything

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📉 $415M Outflow Amid Hawkish Fed Rhetoric and Inflation Data Release

After a record 19-week inflow streak fueled by "Trump Euphoria," the market has faced its first major correction—total outflows reached $415M.

Bitcoin took the biggest hit, seeing $430M in outflows, while interest in short positions did not increase—short Bitcoin products recorded an outflow of $9.6M.

📊 Reasons Behind the Outflow

The main trigger was Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, where he hinted at tighter monetary policy.

Additional pressure came from higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, leading investors to take profits.


📊 Key Facts:

Bitcoin: -$430M, the primary target for profit-taking.

Ethereum: No significant movements.

Solana: +$8.9M, still the top-performing altcoin.

XRP & Sui: +$8.5M and +$6M, respectively.

🌐 Regional Focus:

🇺🇸 U.S.: -$464M—main source of outflows.

🇩🇪 Germany: +$21M.

🇨🇭 Switzerland: +$12.5M.

🇨🇦 Canada: +$10.2M.

📊 Conclusions:

The outflows are concentrated in the U.S., while European markets remain resilient and even see capital inflows.

The long-term trend remains uncertain—further developments will depend on the Fed’s monetary policy and broader macroeconomic factors.


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