KeyRock analyzed over 16,000 token unlocks and reached some interesting conclusions:
However, there’s a nuance: Unlocks for the ecosystem sometimes strengthen a token’s price (+1.18%) if demand remains steady.
An unlock is not just the release of new coins; it is a market trigger that can change the balance of supply and demand.
To understand how an event will affect the price, you need to consider:
Less than 1% of the supply → minimal pressure.
5–10% of the supply → volatility and drawdowns.
10%+ → the effect can be prolonged.
Team: –25% and strong pressure.
Investors: There is an impact, but their strategies tend to smooth out the effect.
Ecosystem: May even strengthen the price.
📊 KeyRock Strategy:
🧮 Current Situation:
In February, token unlocks totaling $2.9 billion are expected, which could bring significant corrections.
In a separate post, you can find market research from a leading crypto trader. He has identified which tokens will be unlocked in February and what percentage of the circulating supply they represent.
He also provided recommendations based on the current situation.
Unlocks are not a death sentence; they are a natural market process that helps maintain supply.
The key is to know which tokens are being unlocked and how to use them properly👍
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Key events that have impacted the global economy:
The company announced the launch of TruthFi and allocated up to $250 million for investments in crypto assets, including Bitcoin and ETFs.
The Arizona Senate approved a bill for a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which will allow up to 10% of state funds to be invested in crypto. A similar bill has been proposed in Illinois.
The company purchased 10,107 BTC for $1.1 billion, increasing its total holdings to 471,107 BTC.
Following a settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, the exchange will pay $297.5 million and exit the U.S. market for two years.
The head of the bank proposed investing 5% of its €140 billion reserves in Bitcoin to diversify its assets.
99% of participants in an informal vote supported Danny Ryan as the new head of the Ethereum Foundation.
The top 5 include: CME Group, Coinbase, Bitstamp, Binance, and Robinhood, with total assets under management of $1.2 trillion.
David Balland suffered physical injuries in an attempt to collect a 10 million euro ransom in crypto. The police rescued him and arrested 10 criminals.
"Bitcoin Jesus" may face 109 years in prison for tax evasion. He reached out to Trump, but Elon Musk reminded everyone that Ver has already renounced his citizenship.
According to MIT, the former SEC Chairman will engage in teaching and research in the fields of AI, finance, fintech, and public policy.
The crypto industry is balancing between regulation and mass adoption, and Bitcoin is increasingly attracting institutional investors.
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In light of the recent drop in $BTC's price, many analysts have spotted signs of a so-called "bear trap" on the charts.
It is a situation where there is a temporary price decline that leads traders to believe a much larger drop is imminent. In such cases, the market may rebound sharply, trapping those who have shorted.
Donald Trump’s trade wars, with the imposition of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, led to Bitcoin falling from $100K to below $93K. Major altcoins also lost tens of percent of their value.
The market is now beginning to recover due to a temporary pause in tariff implementations during negotiations with these countries.
Interestingly, 74% of Polymarket users expect Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high by March 31.
*Polymarket is a prediction market, so the optimism might be somewhat exaggerated.
Bitcoin's rise or fall will increasingly depend on developments in the political arena.
Support for its price might come from a recently signed executive order related to the creation of a sovereign wealth fund. Cynthia Lummis has even hinted that this order could signal the start of state-backed BTC purchases.
Bitcoin may respond with another drop if the trade war escalates further. However, Bitwise strategist Jeff Park holds a different view:
"Trump's trade war could, on the contrary, lead to a sharp long-term increase in Bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency would be chosen as a means to safeguard savings against inflation caused by trade wars".
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Remember that scene from The Matrix where Neo is offered a choice—stay in his familiar world or uncover the truth?
Trading is no different: you can seek new knowledge, analyze the market, and understand processes—or just sit back and watch.
Knowledge creates opportunities. That’s why today, alongside trader Bobrovsky, we’re diving deeper into "Dumps in Crypto Trading" to separate risks from opportunities.
A market dump happens when the price of a cryptocurrency drops sharply. The reasons vary:
Bobrovsky’s advice: use dumps wisely:
The choice of strategy and tools depends on the situation. Bobrovsky recommends deep analysis and avoiding emotional decisions.
On his Telegram channel, he monitors market movements and predicts further trends. His insights are backed by a mathematical background and experience as a senior analyst at a major market maker.
The key is to control emotions, stick to risk management, and choose knowledge—because knowledge opens new perspectives.
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In his latest essay, BitMEX co-founder and former CEO Arthur Hayes explores the concept of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (BSR). Each subheading corresponds to a section of his essay:
🧞 "The Orange Genie"
Hayes paints a scenario where people wish for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. The desire is strong, but the consequences are unpredictable.
Governments accumulate assets for political gain rather than financial benefits.
Bitcoin itself is just a financial asset. Even if the U.S. buys 1 million BTC, the price surge would eventually stabilize.
A future administration could easily reverse such policies, making the reserve strategy uncertain.
Granting the wish for a Bitcoin reserve would lead to centralization and strict crypto regulations.
Crypto startups chasing the "American Dream" would be swallowed by monopolies hoarding digital assets.
🧞 "Make a Wish": The Evolution of U.S. Reserves
Hayes traces the evolution of U.S. reserves, showing how attitudes toward assets changed over time:
But what would it really take for Bitcoin to become an American asset?
All of this would be integrated with social networks like Facebook and X.
If the U.S. enacts the necessary laws, it could dominate the issuance of a new neutral reserve asset.
Hayes argues that if this "wish comes true," Bitcoin’s price could drop to $70-75K, ushering in a new financial era without central banks—centered around decentralized technologies.
This would create a new financial architecture where traditional banks become obsolete, and blockchain forms the foundation of the global economy.
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The race to establish a crypto reserve, Trump's tariff policies, and other major events from last week:
Trump signed an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, and 10% tariffs on imports from China.
🔻 The cryptocurrency market reacted with a sharp drop, and Bitcoin fell by 8%, reaching $92,798.34.
On Tuesday, Trump announced a delay in implementing tariffs for Mexico and Canada. Following this, Bitcoin rebounded to $102,500, and Ethereum climbed to $2,920.
The State Council of China approved new tariffs on U.S. imports starting February 10, 2025:
15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas.
10% tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-engine vehicles, and pickup trucks.
Bessent, who attended the signing at the White House, stated that the fund could be established within 12 months. Bitcoin was not explicitly mentioned in the order.
The document has been forwarded to the Senate for review.
The unit previously had over 50 attorneys and staff members.
This move is a significant step by the Trump administration in reshaping digital asset regulation.
A member of Hong Kong's Legislative Council proposed allowing stablecoin companies to operate within a "regulatory sandbox" to speed up the issuance and adoption of stablecoins for international trade.
He also called for the creation of a Digital Asset Office to oversee the development of AI and virtual assets.
Alexey Pertsev, a Tornado Cash developer, announced on X (Twitter) that a Dutch court approved the temporary suspension of his pretrial detention, requiring him to wear an electronic monitoring bracelet.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin later reposted the news, expressing his support.
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Gold has hit a new all-time high, outperforming Bitcoin since the beginning of the year as central banks continue aggressive purchases.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has gained around 5% year-to-date, but its growth has been accompanied by high volatility.
Let’s break down the macroeconomic factors influencing BTC and gold price movements.
Gold reached a record high of $2,902 per ounce on Monday, marking a 17.5% increase since the start of the year.
Key drivers behind the rally:
According to a World Gold Council report, global gold reserves increased by 694 tons in the first 10 months of 2024, continuing the record accumulation trend.
Top gold buyers in 2024:
🇵🇱 Poland – 89.5 tons
🇮🇳 India – 72.6 tons
🇹🇷 Turkey – 74.8 tons
🇨🇳 China – 44.2 tons
Additional insights: 69% of central banks plan to continue purchasing gold.
83% of central banks in developed countries see gold as a hedge against inflation and financial instability.
Gold continues to serve as a traditional safe-haven asset during inflationary and trade disruptions.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, is considered a high-risk asset in most countries, making it more vulnerable to market sentiment shifts.
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The tragic story of a hard drive discarded in 2013 has taken unexpected turns.
Here’s the case of James Howells, an IT engineer from the UK, who is still on a quest to recover his lost fortune.
James started mining Bitcoin in 2009, back when very few people knew about it.
In 2013, his girlfriend accidentally threw away his hard drive—which already held around 8,000 BTC at the time, valued at just $13 per coin.
James has been fighting for access to the landfill to search for his lost hard drive, but authorities have denied his requests time and time again.
The most recent court ruling in 2024 rejected his claim. However, James insists that the court had no valid grounds for its decision.
James isn’t the only one looking for the BTC hard drive. Security guards have been stationed near the landfill multiple times due to the growing number of Bitcoin treasure hunters trying to find the "21st-century fortune."
Authorities recently announced plans to shut down the landfill to build a solar power plant on the site. The closure is scheduled for 2025–2026.
James is now considering buying the entire landfill along with investment partners.
If the deal falls through, he is even open to launching a utility token or NFT, believing that "the crypto community will support him."
Howells predicts that by 2026, its value could surpass $1 billion.
He is prepared not only to buy the landfill but also to take his case to the UK Supreme Court.
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Price declines have led to a $1.3 billion inflow into digital assets.
However, there are notable shifts in rankings compared to last week, particularly concerning BTC:
This week’s leader: Ethereum. ETH's price dropped to $2,100, triggering record dip buying—$793 million in inflows over the week.
This is the first time in 2024 that ETH inflows have surpassed BTC.
What about Bitcoin? BTC saw $407 million in inflows, while ETPs now hold 7.1% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization.
Other significant inflows: XRP: +$21 million and Solana: +$11 million
🇺🇸 USA: + $1 billion — the absolute leader in inflows.
🇩🇪 Germany: + $61 million
🇨🇭 Switzerland: + $54 million
🇨🇦 Canada: + $37 million
Assets under Management (AuM): $163 billion (down from the record $181 billion in January).
ETP trading volume: $20 billion over the past week.
Investors continue increasing their positions despite market volatility.
The recent price dip triggered strong buying, particularly in ETH.
Bitcoin remains the dominant asset, but for the first time this year, Ethereum has taken the lead in inflows.
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The identity of Satoshi Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in the world of technology and finance.
And once again, a new documentary is hitting the screens, promising to reveal the truth behind Satoshi.
British broadcaster Channel 4 (yes, the same ones behind the "British scientists" jokes) has announced a documentary investigation, claiming that Bitcoin’s history may be part of a global conspiracy.
The project’s producer calls it a "surreal investigation", where a group of influential Silicon Valley figures allegedly used Bitcoin to undermine democracy.
The documentary promises a gonzo-style journalistic journey, attempting to determine who Nakamoto really is and what forces are behind Bitcoin.
HBO recently released a documentary called "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery", which claimed that BTC Core developer Peter Todd was actually Satoshi.
However, the so-called "revelation" quickly turned into a major embarrassment:
So, the new Channel 4 documentary is already sparking both excitement and skepticism.
📅 When Is the Premiere?
The crypto community is traditionally skeptical of such documentaries, often accusing them of bias and sensationalism.
But this time, the filmmakers have gone beyond just searching for Satoshi—they promise to expose the hidden political games surrounding Bitcoin.
React: What do you expect from this film?
🔥 — Looks interesting, I’ll watch
💯 — Satoshi is Satoshi, no need to search
😁 — It’ll be even worse than HBO’s
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Key events from last week in the world of cryptocurrency and global economy:
Donald Trump has introduced a new round of reciprocal tariffs to counter high import duties imposed by other countries on U.S. goods.
This move could significantly impact emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Vietnam, where tariffs on U.S. imports are much higher than U.S. tariffs on goods from these countries.
These initiatives could bring $23 billion into the Bitcoin market. If passed, they would open new investment opportunities and state-level Bitcoin adoption.
The altcoin market experienced its largest drop ever, losing $234 billion over the past two weeks.
This highlights the growing divergence between Bitcoin and altcoins, as BTC continues to dominate the market.
The company now holds 478,740 BTC, with a total acquisition cost of $31.1 billion at an average price of $65,033 per BTC.
Binance and the SEC have filed a joint motion to suspend legal proceedings for 60 days. The request is linked to the potential impact of the SEC’s new crypto task force.
Top banks, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America, are preparing for an upcoming crypto IPO boom.
Crypto firms like Gemini and Kraken are expected to go public as early as 2025, driving renewed investor interest in digital assets.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that, despite pressure from Trump to lower rates, the Fed is not rushing into rate cuts as the economy remains strong and inflation is gradually decreasing.
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