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🖥 Galaxy Research Forecast for the Crypto Market in 2025 📈

Galaxy Research has published its forecast for cryptocurrencies in 2025. Here are the key points:

1️⃣ Bitcoin will reach $150k in the first half of the year and test or exceed $185k in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin will represent 20% of gold’s market capitalization.

2️⃣ US Spot Bitcoin ETPs will exceed $250 billion AUM by 2025.

In 2024, Bitcoin ETPs attracted over $36 billion in net inflows.

3️⃣ Bitcoin will once again rank among the top-performing assets in terms of risk and return.

4️⃣ At least one major wealth management platform will recommend including Bitcoin in portfolios at a level of 2% or higher.

5️⃣ Five companies from the Nasdaq 100 and five countries will announce the inclusion of Bitcoin in their balance sheets or sovereign funds.

6️⃣ Bitcoin developers will reach consensus on the next protocol upgrade by 2025.

This may include integrating OP_CTV, OP_CSFS, and/or OP_CAT into the next soft fork.

💡 What does this mean for investors?

The growth of Bitcoin and increased institutional interest will create favorable conditions for further cryptocurrency market growth. Investors should monitor developments closely and be prepared for forecasted volatility.

The future of the crypto market looks optimistic, according to Galaxy Research’s predictions.

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🖥 Cryptocurrencies Kick Off 2025 with Growth: Bitcoin Surpasses $97K Again 📈

The crypto industry started 2025 with a recovery following recent losses, fueled by renewed investor optimism.

1️⃣ Key Facts:

Bitcoin: Price increased by 3%, reaching $97,234.80, with a total growth of nearly 4% since the start of the year.
CoinDesk 20 Index: The cryptocurrency market rose by over 3%.
Solana: Leading among altcoins with a nearly 7% increase.
Crypto Stocks: Coinbase and MicroStrategy shares rose by 3.5% each.

2️⃣ Reasons for the Growth:

Regulatory Changes: The promise of more favorable regulations by President-elect Donald Trump is creating positive conditions for cryptocurrencies.

Legislation: Investors are hopeful that Congress will pass the first-ever crypto-focused legislative initiative, possibly related to stablecoins or market structure.

IPOs and Reserves: Anticipation of public crypto market launches and progress in creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

3️⃣ 2024 Recap:

Crypto assets ended the year with over 120% growth.

Long-term holders locked in profits, while some sold assets due to uncertainty about potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes in 2025.

4️⃣ What to Expect in 2025:

The cryptocurrency market is expected to continue evolving under the influence of regulatory initiatives and increasing institutional investments. Investors should be prepared for volatility and take advantage of emerging opportunities to grow their portfolios.

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📁 Weekly Crypto Updates: What’s New?

Here are the key events from the crypto world over the past few days:

1️⃣ Forbes Forecast: Seven Key Industry Trends by 2025

G7 and BRICS may create strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Stablecoin market capitalization is expected to reach $400 billion.

Rapid growth of Bitcoin-based DeFi is anticipated, driven by L2 solutions like Stacks and BOB.

2️⃣ The Combined Wealth of the Top 500 Billionaires Surpasses $10 Trillion

The wealth of Binance CEO CZ increased by 60%, reaching $55 billion. The rise was fueled by Bitcoin’s price surge past the $100,000 mark after the US elections.

3️⃣ Binance Labs Plans a Rebrand

Binance’s investment division completed 46 deals in 2024 and plans to expand into OTC trading and the secondary market. CZ is personally involved in project evaluations and interactions with founders.

4️⃣ Former German Finance Minister Calls for Bitcoin in EU Reserves

Christian Lindner urged the ECB and Bundesbank to consider adding crypto assets to reserves to strengthen economic resilience.

5️⃣ IRS Introduces Temporary Tax Relief for Crypto Investors

In 2025, CeFi users will be able to choose their asset accounting method to reduce taxes. Experts warn that if no method is chosen by 2026, the default FIFO rule will apply, leading to higher capital gains taxes.

6️⃣ Syrian Transitional Council Legalizes Bitcoin

Bitcoin is planned to be used to attract investments and combat inflation. There is also a discussion about integrating cryptocurrency into the banking system and opening up energy resources for mining.

7️⃣ a16z Supports Lawsuit Against the US Treasury

a16z Crypto backs a lawsuit against new reporting regulations, which they believe threaten DeFi’s growth. Industry lawyers are confident they can protect innovation.

8️⃣ Strive Files for a Bitcoin-Backed Bond ETF

The fund will invest in bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other companies holding large BTC reserves. Bitwise also plans to launch an ETF focused on companies with more than 1,000 BTC on their balance sheets.

9️⃣ Debate on the Future of AI Agents

Hasib from Dragonfly stated that the hype around AI agents is temporary and will be replaced by more practical engineering solutions. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of AI memes reached $11 billion, with a daily trading volume of $2.46 billion.

1️⃣0️⃣ MicroStrategy, CleanSpark, and Tether Increase Their BTC Reserves

MicroStrategy: Purchased 2,138 BTC for $209 million, bringing its total holdings to 446,400 BTC.

CleanSpark: Acquired 3,158 BTC, raising its total reserve to 9,907 BTC.

Tether: Withdrew 7,628.9 BTC from Bitfinex, increasing its reserves to 82,983 BTC worth $7.68 billion.

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Crypto Fund Flows: Weekly Review 📈

2024 ended with record inflows into digital assets, and 2025 is off to an optimistic start.

1️⃣ Key Facts for 2024:

⚪️Total inflows: $44.2 billion, nearly 4 times the 2021 record ($10.5 billion).
⚪️Bitcoin: $38 billion in inflows (29% of total AuM).
⚪️Ethereum: $4.8 billion in inflows (26% of AuM), a 2.4x increase compared to 2021 and 60 times higher than in 2023.
⚪️Altcoins (excluding ETH): $813 million in inflows (18% of AuM).

2️⃣ Start of 2025:

⚪️Inflows in the first 3 days: $585 million.
⚪️Net outflows for the week: $75 million (during the last 2 trading days of 2024).

3️⃣ Regional Trends:

⚪️USA: All inflows into Bitcoin ETPs — $44.4 billion.
⚪️Switzerland: Inflows of $630 million.
⚪️Canada and Sweden: Outflows of $707 million and $682 million, respectively.

4️⃣ What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency market continues to grow thanks to institutional investments and an improved regulatory environment. Investors should be prepared for volatility and take advantage of new opportunities to grow their portfolios.

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Why is Singapore Outpacing Hong Kong?

Singapore continues to strengthen its reputation as a hub for digital assets.

In 2024, 13 licenses were issued to major players, including OKX, Upbit, Anchorage, BitGo, and GSR. This is twice as many as the previous year!

Meanwhile, Hong Kong, which is also striving to attract crypto companies, has encountered difficulties. More details below.

🏆 Why is Singapore Winning?

1️⃣ Regulatory Flexibility: Singapore's regulatory framework provides more freedom for working with cryptocurrencies.

For example, Hong Kong only allows trading of the most liquid assets (Bitcoin, Ether), while altcoins remain banned.

2️⃣ Asset Tokenization Projects: Singapore is actively developing initiatives such as Project Guardian, aimed at commercializing tokenization.

3️⃣ Support for New Players: Singapore creates an environment where startups and institutional players work together.

"Singapore's structure offers more opportunities for young companies and startups, unlike Hong Kong, which focuses on major financial institutions," — Ben Charoenwong, Associate Professor of Finance at INSEAD.


🏗 What’s Happening in Hong Kong?

In 2024, Hong Kong issued only 7 full licenses to crypto platforms. Of these, four were approved with restrictions only in December.

Major exchanges such as OKX and Bybit withdrew their applications for licenses in Hong Kong. The main reasons:

⚪️ Stricter Requirements for Custody of Customer Funds

⚪️ Restrictions on Token Listings

⚪️ General Regulatory Uncertainty

China's influence also plays a role.

Despite being a Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong's ties with China create additional risks for companies working with crypto assets.


Innovation and Prospects

🇸🇬 Singapore:

⚪️ Asset tokenization projects receive government support

⚪️ Regulators work towards long-term stability and security

⚪️ Attraction of global leaders, such as Anchorage and BitGo

🇭🇰 Hong Kong:

Issuance of digital "green" bonds worth $770 million through HSBC's platform.

Launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. However, trading volumes remain low: only $500 million compared to $120 billion in the USA.

"Achieving such a high standard while remaining profitable is quite challenging," — Roger Li, co-founder of One Satoshi.


📌 In Conclusion:

Both cities are trying to become the leading crypto hubs in Asia, but their strategies are different.

Singapore bets on flexibility and integration with innovative projects.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong focuses more on traditional financial institutions and strict regulation.

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Is the Federal Reserve Blocking the Creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve in the USA?

Earlier today, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated during a press conference that the Fed does not intend to participate in any government plans to accumulate Bitcoin.

This declaration immediately impacted the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin’s price to retreat from recent highs.

📉 Key Points:

Powell’s Statement: The Federal Reserve does not plan to hold Bitcoin in its reserves. All matters regarding the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve remain under the jurisdiction of Congress.

Market Impact: Following Powell’s announcement, Bitcoin’s price dropped from record levels, and the probability of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve decreased from 40% to 34%, according to Polymarket data.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization: The total market cap declined by approximately 7.5%, reflecting investor uncertainty.

👤 Role of the Federal Reserve and Legislative Possibilities:

The U.S. Congress is the supreme authority for the Federal Reserve and other financial regulatory bodies.

Congress develops financial regulations and policies, and authorizes institutions to perform their functions.

The Trump administration could utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bitcoin WITHOUT the Fed’s consent.


However, this raises questions about long-term sustainability and potential changes by future administrations.

💸 Legislative Path:

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act: Creating a sustainable reserve requires legislative action.

The bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis aims to officially recognize Bitcoin as a national strategic asset.

Legitimacy and Stability: Passing this law would provide a long-term legal foundation for Bitcoin reserves, which cannot be achieved through executive orders alone.

💡 Alternative Options:

1️⃣ The Fed and the Treasury could allocate Bitcoin within existing frameworks, but this would require clear political support and regulatory guidelines.

2️⃣ The Treasury could establish a dedicated fund for Bitcoin investments, coordinating funding with Congress.

🇺🇸 What’s Next?

Investors should closely monitor congressional initiatives and assess their impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Despite current setbacks, Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain attractive due to institutional investment opportunities and an improving regulatory environment.

Powell’s statement highlights the Fed’s caution towards cryptocurrencies but does not rule out the possibility of establishing a Bitcoin reserve through legislative measures.


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🖥 Where Is the “Speculators’ Paradise” in Crypto, Will the U.S. Get Approval to Liquidate BTC, and the Look Ahead Crypto Report: This Week’s Highlights

Passions around cryptocurrencies remain intense on the global stage. Let’s look at the week’s most important events in the crypto world:

1️⃣0️⃣ “Speculators’ Paradise”: Solana’s AI Hackathon Faces Criticism
Yash Agarwal, curator of the Solana AI Hackathon, remarked:

“‘Degens’ believe they can discover projects here that might grow 100x, making it the perfect place for speculation.” Agarwal urged developers not to launch tokens unnecessarily.


9️⃣ Czech Central Bank Governor Considers BTC for Reserves: Aleš Michl shared this in an interview with CNN. The country is actively pursuing a diversification strategy using gold—by 2028, the Czech Republic plans to increase total gold holdings to 5%.

8️⃣ In the latest 2025 Look Ahead report, it’s predicted that more and more countries will start including BTC in their strategic reserves.

Analyst Matt Hogan is confident that in 2025, digital assets will go mainstream, and the tokenization market for on-chain assets will grow from $14 billion to $30 billion.


7️⃣ “Global Public Debt Nearing $100 Trillion”
Former People’s Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan stated that to address this situation, “countries must strengthen cooperation in regulating crypto assets on a global scale and refine standards for digital currency trading.”

6️⃣ MicroStrategy Acquires 1,070 BTC for $101 Million. They paid an average of $94,004 per coin. Currently, the company holds 447,470 BTC at an average cost of $62,503 per coin, totaling about $27.97 billion.

5️⃣ Vitalik Buterin Publishes “d/acc: One Year Later,” discussing AI safety, crypto integration, and the funding of public goods.

4️⃣ Pierre Poilievre, the Pro-Crypto Leader, Set to Become Canada’s Next Prime Minister. On the 6th, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation at a press conference.

There’s an 87% probability that Pierre Poilievre — an advocate of DeFi and crypto — will take over.


The next block is directly related to the U.S.:

3️⃣ U.S. ADP Employment Report for December: 122,000 vs. 140,000 Expected and 146,000 Previously. According to QCP, BTC retreated to the $95,000 support level after stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data.

2️⃣ The Crypto Industry Demands That Trump Issue Crypto Orders in His First 100 Days. Following recent Fed statements, the crypto industry has been lobbying Trump to sign executive orders within the first 100 days, establishing U.S. BTC reserves, providing banking services for the sector, and creating a cryptocurrency advisory council.

1️⃣ U.S. Government Authorized to Liquidate $6.5 Billion Worth of Silk Road Bitcoins.

A federal judge ruled that the Department of Justice (DOJ) can sell 69,370 BTC seized from the Silk Road darknet platform.


Conclusion

Increasingly, more countries are beginning to see cryptocurrencies as a means of addressing the current macroeconomic challenges.

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🌐 2024 Highlights: China vs. the US in the AI Race

Over the past 18 months, China has significantly narrowed the gap with the US in artificial intelligence development.

📊 Facts and Figures:

⚪️ In 2023, China lagged behind the US by 30.12% in the race for leadership in LLMs (SuperCLUE benchmark).

⚪️ By October 2024, the gap had shrunk to a record 1.29%, but OpenAI’s new model, OpenAIo1, widened it back to 8%.

⚪️ In the open-source domain, China not only caught up but surpassed the US in tests conducted in Chinese.

🇨🇳 Key Achievements by China:

1️⃣ Open-Source Models Leading the Way: Chinese Qwen2.5-72B-Instruct scored 68.90 points on SuperCLUE, nearing the performance of the top closed-source models.

2️⃣ Model Diversification: The top three leaders remain US models, but they are closely followed by three Chinese models outperforming Google DeepMind Gemini.

3️⃣ Resource Optimization: Despite US export restrictions on advanced chips, China has achieved remarkable results by focusing on medium-complexity tasks.

💡 Insight:

China has proven that "money doesn’t solve everything" in AI development.

Through strategic adaptation and resource optimization, the country has significantly bolstered its position.


Bottom Line:

The AI leadership race remains a showdown between two giants.

The US maintains its lead in top-tier models, but China demonstrates strength in open-source and shows that restrictions can be overcome.

The path to AGI is becoming increasingly competitive, with 2024 marking a pivotal year in this technological contest.


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🖥 Cryptocurrency Investment Market: Inflows of $48 Million This Week 📈

Last week, digital assets faced macroeconomic challenges, resulting in mixed outcomes for crypto funds.

📊 Key Facts:

Bitcoin: Inflows: $214 Million

Later in the week, outflows occurred; nevertheless, Bitcoin remains the leading asset with total inflows of $799 million year-to-date.

Ethereum: Outflows: $256 Million

Reason: General sell-off in technology stocks, no specific issues with the asset observed.

Solana: Inflows: $15 Million

Unlike Ethereum, Solana did not experience the same pressure.

XRP: Inflows: $41 Million

Reason: Increased optimism ahead of the SEC appeal deadline on January 15th.

Altcoins (Excluding ETH): Inflows: $48 Million

Notable inflows in Aave ($2.9 million), Stellar ($2.7 million), and Polkadot ($1.6 million).

📉 Weekly Summary:

Total Inflows for the Week: $48 million.

Net Outflows for the Week: $75 million.

Impact: Macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve protocols affected investor confidence.

🌐 Regional Focus:

USA: Major inflows focused on Bitcoin and XRP.

Europe and Asia: Investors exhibit caution due to macroeconomic instability.

📈 Market in Numbers:

- Total Market Capitalization of Digital Assets: Decreased by approximately 7.5%.

- Trading Volumes: Remain under pressure due to changes in monetary policy.

📈 Forecast:

Despite current outflows, the long-term prospects for Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain positive thanks to institutional investments and an improving regulatory environment.

The cryptocurrency market continues to respond to macroeconomic changes and decisions by the Federal Reserve System.

Investors should continue to monitor economic indicators and regulatory developments that may impact market movements.


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