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— Keeping a close eye on crypto news so you don't miss the next 2009

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🟠 Arthur Hayes' Prediction: Crypto Market Crash on Trump's Inauguration Day

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes anticipates a significant downturn in the crypto market on January 20, 2025, the day of Donald Trump's inauguration.

📌 Key points of the prediction:

1️⃣ Trump and His "Truth":

Hayes believes Trump acts as a catalyst, exposing global economic imbalances. He expects the new U.S. president to initiate a large-scale dollar devaluation to support the American economy.

2️⃣ Market Crash:

Hayes thinks investors are overestimating how quickly Trump can implement his plans. Disappointment will lead to a sharp decline in crypto asset prices and Trump-related stocks.

3️⃣ Dollar and Gold:

Hayes predicts the dollar will be devalued against gold within Trump's first 100 days in office, triggering economic changes that favor U.S. reindustrialization.

4️⃣ Reactions from Other Countries:

◽️ China is preparing for massive monetary issuance to stabilize its economy.
◽️ The EU will intensify financial repression and print money to handle economic pressure.
◽️ Japan is expected to follow U.S. directives by strengthening the yen.

5️⃣ What’s Next for Crypto?

Hayes warns of a potential correction but remains optimistic in the long term. He sees growth potential for Bitcoin and other assets due to structural changes in the global economy.

🔵 Recommendation:

Hayes plans to reduce his positions before the inauguration to buy assets at a lower price in the first half of 2025.

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🖥 Crypto Market: $308M Inflows and $1B Outflows Over the Week

Last week delivered mixed results for crypto funds: a total inflow of $308M despite significant outflows.

📊 Key Facts:

Bitcoin: Net inflow of $375M despite internal outflows.

Ethereum: Inflow of $51M.

XRP: Inflow of $8.8M.

Horizen: Inflow of $4.8M.

Polkadot: Inflow of $1.9M.

Solana: Outflow of $8.7M.

📈 Altcoin Leaders:

⚫️ XRP: +$8.8M
⚫️ Horizen: +$4.8M
⚫️ Polkadot: +$1.9M

🌐 Market Volumes:

⚫️ Decrease in AuM: By $17.7B, accounting for 0.37% of the total volume.
⚫️ Record Outflows: 13th largest in history.

💡 What’s Next?

Investors continue to increase positions in Bitcoin and certain altcoins despite short-term outflows triggered by hawkish FOMC signals. A more selective investment approach is expected, with a focus on stable and promising assets.


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🖥 SEC Fines Jump Trading Subsidiary $123M for Supporting TerraUSD

Last week brought significant news for the crypto market: Jump Trading's subsidiary, Tai Mo Shan, agreed to pay a $123 million fine for intervening in stabilizing the TerraUSD stablecoin.

📊 Key Facts:

Fine: Tai Mo Shan will pay $123 million — $86 million as disgorgement of profits and $36 million as a penalty without admitting wrongdoing.

Intervention: In May 2021, Tai Mo Shan spent $20 million to support TerraUSD's price after its "depeg," which the SEC claims misled investors about the stability of its algorithmic mechanism.

Profit: In exchange for this support, Tai Mo Shan received early access to Luna tokens, which were sold on the market, generating $1.28 billion in profits according to preliminary SEC statements.

Negative Consequences: Tai Mo Shan's intervention concealed the true stabilization mechanisms of TerraUSD, creating a false impression of the system's reliability.

📉 Market Impact:

⚪️ Investors: Loss of trust in algorithmic stablecoins.
⚪️ Regulation: Increased SEC scrutiny of cryptocurrency companies.
⚪️ Terra Labs: In September, Terraform Labs agreed to pay over $4 billion in fines and begin liquidation.

💡 What Does This Mean?

Regulators are intensifying their oversight of the crypto industry, potentially leading to stricter measures and increased transparency in the market. Investors should pay close attention to regulatory actions and consider the risks associated with algorithmic stablecoins.


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🎄 Holiday Spirit in the Crypto Market: Surprises and Opportunities!

As the holidays approach, more projects are offering their communities unique events and giveaways. One such initiative is the Advent Calendar from XDAO, which has already started bringing joy to participants!

What’s New?

The XDAO team has prepared a special New Year’s giveaway to let everyone feel the festive spirit and win valuable prizes. All you need to do is collect 10 Christmas trees during the event before January 10. This simple task gives you a chance to win big prizes and bonuses!

📅 Key Event Details:

End Date: January 10
How to Participate: Collect 10 Christmas trees and provide your USDT wallet address on the TON network to enter the draw.

🎁 Prize Pool:

1st–100th place:
1,000,000 $DAO each
1,000 USDT
50 Telegram Premium subscriptions for 1 month


101st–2025th place:
500,000 $DAO
Enhanced referral link with a 20% commission for 7 days


2026th–10,000th place:
300,000 $DAO


Additionally, for every Christmas tree you catch, you receive 30,000 $DAO, and for the 10th tree, there’s an extra bonus of 100,000 $DAO!

🌐 Why Does This Matter?

XDAO aims to make DAOs accessible for mass adoption in the crypto world by providing tools for managing shared funds, building communities, and investing in DeFi. By participating in events like this, you not only get a chance to win prizes but also become part of an innovative project that’s redefining the rules of the crypto industry.

💡 What XDAO Offers:

Fully customizable DAOs for treasury management
Multi-signature wallets
A platform for investing in DeFi
Support for various groups: venture funds, startups, DeFi projects, and more

Don’t miss your chance to be part of this amazing event and start the new year with delightful surprises! 🌟

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🖥 Galaxy Research Forecast for the Crypto Market in 2025 📈

Galaxy Research has published its forecast for cryptocurrencies in 2025. Here are the key points:

1️⃣ Bitcoin will reach $150k in the first half of the year and test or exceed $185k in Q4 2025.

Bitcoin will represent 20% of gold’s market capitalization.

2️⃣ US Spot Bitcoin ETPs will exceed $250 billion AUM by 2025.

In 2024, Bitcoin ETPs attracted over $36 billion in net inflows.

3️⃣ Bitcoin will once again rank among the top-performing assets in terms of risk and return.

4️⃣ At least one major wealth management platform will recommend including Bitcoin in portfolios at a level of 2% or higher.

5️⃣ Five companies from the Nasdaq 100 and five countries will announce the inclusion of Bitcoin in their balance sheets or sovereign funds.

6️⃣ Bitcoin developers will reach consensus on the next protocol upgrade by 2025.

This may include integrating OP_CTV, OP_CSFS, and/or OP_CAT into the next soft fork.

💡 What does this mean for investors?

The growth of Bitcoin and increased institutional interest will create favorable conditions for further cryptocurrency market growth. Investors should monitor developments closely and be prepared for forecasted volatility.

The future of the crypto market looks optimistic, according to Galaxy Research’s predictions.

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🖥 Cryptocurrencies Kick Off 2025 with Growth: Bitcoin Surpasses $97K Again 📈

The crypto industry started 2025 with a recovery following recent losses, fueled by renewed investor optimism.

1️⃣ Key Facts:

Bitcoin: Price increased by 3%, reaching $97,234.80, with a total growth of nearly 4% since the start of the year.
CoinDesk 20 Index: The cryptocurrency market rose by over 3%.
Solana: Leading among altcoins with a nearly 7% increase.
Crypto Stocks: Coinbase and MicroStrategy shares rose by 3.5% each.

2️⃣ Reasons for the Growth:

Regulatory Changes: The promise of more favorable regulations by President-elect Donald Trump is creating positive conditions for cryptocurrencies.

Legislation: Investors are hopeful that Congress will pass the first-ever crypto-focused legislative initiative, possibly related to stablecoins or market structure.

IPOs and Reserves: Anticipation of public crypto market launches and progress in creating a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.

3️⃣ 2024 Recap:

Crypto assets ended the year with over 120% growth.

Long-term holders locked in profits, while some sold assets due to uncertainty about potential Federal Reserve interest rate changes in 2025.

4️⃣ What to Expect in 2025:

The cryptocurrency market is expected to continue evolving under the influence of regulatory initiatives and increasing institutional investments. Investors should be prepared for volatility and take advantage of emerging opportunities to grow their portfolios.

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📁 Weekly Crypto Updates: What’s New?

Here are the key events from the crypto world over the past few days:

1️⃣ Forbes Forecast: Seven Key Industry Trends by 2025

G7 and BRICS may create strategic Bitcoin reserves.

Stablecoin market capitalization is expected to reach $400 billion.

Rapid growth of Bitcoin-based DeFi is anticipated, driven by L2 solutions like Stacks and BOB.

2️⃣ The Combined Wealth of the Top 500 Billionaires Surpasses $10 Trillion

The wealth of Binance CEO CZ increased by 60%, reaching $55 billion. The rise was fueled by Bitcoin’s price surge past the $100,000 mark after the US elections.

3️⃣ Binance Labs Plans a Rebrand

Binance’s investment division completed 46 deals in 2024 and plans to expand into OTC trading and the secondary market. CZ is personally involved in project evaluations and interactions with founders.

4️⃣ Former German Finance Minister Calls for Bitcoin in EU Reserves

Christian Lindner urged the ECB and Bundesbank to consider adding crypto assets to reserves to strengthen economic resilience.

5️⃣ IRS Introduces Temporary Tax Relief for Crypto Investors

In 2025, CeFi users will be able to choose their asset accounting method to reduce taxes. Experts warn that if no method is chosen by 2026, the default FIFO rule will apply, leading to higher capital gains taxes.

6️⃣ Syrian Transitional Council Legalizes Bitcoin

Bitcoin is planned to be used to attract investments and combat inflation. There is also a discussion about integrating cryptocurrency into the banking system and opening up energy resources for mining.

7️⃣ a16z Supports Lawsuit Against the US Treasury

a16z Crypto backs a lawsuit against new reporting regulations, which they believe threaten DeFi’s growth. Industry lawyers are confident they can protect innovation.

8️⃣ Strive Files for a Bitcoin-Backed Bond ETF

The fund will invest in bonds issued by MicroStrategy and other companies holding large BTC reserves. Bitwise also plans to launch an ETF focused on companies with more than 1,000 BTC on their balance sheets.

9️⃣ Debate on the Future of AI Agents

Hasib from Dragonfly stated that the hype around AI agents is temporary and will be replaced by more practical engineering solutions. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of AI memes reached $11 billion, with a daily trading volume of $2.46 billion.

1️⃣0️⃣ MicroStrategy, CleanSpark, and Tether Increase Their BTC Reserves

MicroStrategy: Purchased 2,138 BTC for $209 million, bringing its total holdings to 446,400 BTC.

CleanSpark: Acquired 3,158 BTC, raising its total reserve to 9,907 BTC.

Tether: Withdrew 7,628.9 BTC from Bitfinex, increasing its reserves to 82,983 BTC worth $7.68 billion.

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Crypto Fund Flows: Weekly Review 📈

2024 ended with record inflows into digital assets, and 2025 is off to an optimistic start.

1️⃣ Key Facts for 2024:

⚪️Total inflows: $44.2 billion, nearly 4 times the 2021 record ($10.5 billion).
⚪️Bitcoin: $38 billion in inflows (29% of total AuM).
⚪️Ethereum: $4.8 billion in inflows (26% of AuM), a 2.4x increase compared to 2021 and 60 times higher than in 2023.
⚪️Altcoins (excluding ETH): $813 million in inflows (18% of AuM).

2️⃣ Start of 2025:

⚪️Inflows in the first 3 days: $585 million.
⚪️Net outflows for the week: $75 million (during the last 2 trading days of 2024).

3️⃣ Regional Trends:

⚪️USA: All inflows into Bitcoin ETPs — $44.4 billion.
⚪️Switzerland: Inflows of $630 million.
⚪️Canada and Sweden: Outflows of $707 million and $682 million, respectively.

4️⃣ What’s Next?

The cryptocurrency market continues to grow thanks to institutional investments and an improved regulatory environment. Investors should be prepared for volatility and take advantage of new opportunities to grow their portfolios.

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Why is Singapore Outpacing Hong Kong?

Singapore continues to strengthen its reputation as a hub for digital assets.

In 2024, 13 licenses were issued to major players, including OKX, Upbit, Anchorage, BitGo, and GSR. This is twice as many as the previous year!

Meanwhile, Hong Kong, which is also striving to attract crypto companies, has encountered difficulties. More details below.

🏆 Why is Singapore Winning?

1️⃣ Regulatory Flexibility: Singapore's regulatory framework provides more freedom for working with cryptocurrencies.

For example, Hong Kong only allows trading of the most liquid assets (Bitcoin, Ether), while altcoins remain banned.

2️⃣ Asset Tokenization Projects: Singapore is actively developing initiatives such as Project Guardian, aimed at commercializing tokenization.

3️⃣ Support for New Players: Singapore creates an environment where startups and institutional players work together.

"Singapore's structure offers more opportunities for young companies and startups, unlike Hong Kong, which focuses on major financial institutions," — Ben Charoenwong, Associate Professor of Finance at INSEAD.


🏗 What’s Happening in Hong Kong?

In 2024, Hong Kong issued only 7 full licenses to crypto platforms. Of these, four were approved with restrictions only in December.

Major exchanges such as OKX and Bybit withdrew their applications for licenses in Hong Kong. The main reasons:

⚪️ Stricter Requirements for Custody of Customer Funds

⚪️ Restrictions on Token Listings

⚪️ General Regulatory Uncertainty

China's influence also plays a role.

Despite being a Special Administrative Region, Hong Kong's ties with China create additional risks for companies working with crypto assets.


Innovation and Prospects

🇸🇬 Singapore:

⚪️ Asset tokenization projects receive government support

⚪️ Regulators work towards long-term stability and security

⚪️ Attraction of global leaders, such as Anchorage and BitGo

🇭🇰 Hong Kong:

Issuance of digital "green" bonds worth $770 million through HSBC's platform.

Launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs. However, trading volumes remain low: only $500 million compared to $120 billion in the USA.

"Achieving such a high standard while remaining profitable is quite challenging," — Roger Li, co-founder of One Satoshi.


📌 In Conclusion:

Both cities are trying to become the leading crypto hubs in Asia, but their strategies are different.

Singapore bets on flexibility and integration with innovative projects.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong focuses more on traditional financial institutions and strict regulation.

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Is the Federal Reserve Blocking the Creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve in the USA?

Earlier today, Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stated during a press conference that the Fed does not intend to participate in any government plans to accumulate Bitcoin.

This declaration immediately impacted the cryptocurrency market, causing Bitcoin’s price to retreat from recent highs.

📉 Key Points:

Powell’s Statement: The Federal Reserve does not plan to hold Bitcoin in its reserves. All matters regarding the creation of a National Bitcoin Reserve remain under the jurisdiction of Congress.

Market Impact: Following Powell’s announcement, Bitcoin’s price dropped from record levels, and the probability of establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve decreased from 40% to 34%, according to Polymarket data.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization: The total market cap declined by approximately 7.5%, reflecting investor uncertainty.

👤 Role of the Federal Reserve and Legislative Possibilities:

The U.S. Congress is the supreme authority for the Federal Reserve and other financial regulatory bodies.

Congress develops financial regulations and policies, and authorizes institutions to perform their functions.

The Trump administration could utilize the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to purchase Bitcoin WITHOUT the Fed’s consent.


However, this raises questions about long-term sustainability and potential changes by future administrations.

💸 Legislative Path:

Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act: Creating a sustainable reserve requires legislative action.

The bill proposed by Senator Cynthia Lummis aims to officially recognize Bitcoin as a national strategic asset.

Legitimacy and Stability: Passing this law would provide a long-term legal foundation for Bitcoin reserves, which cannot be achieved through executive orders alone.

💡 Alternative Options:

1️⃣ The Fed and the Treasury could allocate Bitcoin within existing frameworks, but this would require clear political support and regulatory guidelines.

2️⃣ The Treasury could establish a dedicated fund for Bitcoin investments, coordinating funding with Congress.

🇺🇸 What’s Next?

Investors should closely monitor congressional initiatives and assess their impact on the cryptocurrency market.

Despite current setbacks, Bitcoin’s long-term prospects remain attractive due to institutional investment opportunities and an improving regulatory environment.

Powell’s statement highlights the Fed’s caution towards cryptocurrencies but does not rule out the possibility of establishing a Bitcoin reserve through legislative measures.


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